Exit polls predict large tory majority and Scotland going to SNP

[Thomas]

Thomas,

Most people on this forum, including myself, (not HQQ) seem to be in favour of Scotland leaving the union once they have had a referendum which proves to be in favour.

To say British democracy is a sham is a bit rich, really.

Get on with your referendum, even if "permission" is refused. Win it by > 50%+1 and we're with you (or in this case we won't be, coz you'll be gone). Until then, as you say, talk is cheap.

For the last four years or so , despite fully disagreeing with the principle of brexit , i fully agreed with you and yours as a democrat the indefensible  position english remianers took against you of overturning brexit was anti democratic.



Predictably , you have won your battle , and on your way.



....but now the anti democratic forces at westminster are turning their flak back onto us , why am i not surprised by the lack of support in return from those in our country who were only weeks ago  were angry at westminsters behaviour  , whom i supported , now turning into two types of anti democratic people in england?



1. The borchesters and streetwalkers who have been telling me for a few years now we support scottish indy jock , but when push comes to shove they vocally support johnsons anti democratic position over scotland not being allowed to choose indy.



2.The others who by their silence on the issue (hoping it all goes away) are complicit in johnson and his conservative governments anti democratic stance to the voice of the scottish people in asking for another indy ref.



Talk is cheap barry , and there seems to be a lot of it coming from your country with regard to scotland.



Seems to me borchester , streetwalker and many others in your country and simply the twin cheek of the same anti democratic english arse that javert and beelbeeb belong to.

[T00ts]

Maybe they could try independence for, say 2 years, under Queen Nick and then vote at the end of that time to decide if they are sure. You know, like a confirmatory referendum.  :ZIP:

Good try!  :hattip

[Barry]

I also see no reason that Scotland should stay, if as you say Barry, enough vote to leave. I do suspect though that Nicola Sturgeon was hopeful of using the euphoria of both the SNP and Conservative results to sweep a Ref through in a hurry. I do wonder and have said before, that some Scots might well be prepared to play a waiting game to see just what the deal is in the end and how that impacts on them before making their decision. There is bound to be some delay between our leaving the EU, a ref being agreed and then their application to rejoin the EU being carried through. They say a week is a long time in politics... They could be right.

Maybe they could try independence for, say 2 years, under Queen Nick and then vote at the end of that time to decide if they are sure. You know, like a confirmatory referendum.  :ZIP:

[T00ts]

The problem with this Toots is that absolutely nobody is making that argument — at least not to a significant volume.  A lot of people talk about London — how London will be resilient, how London will remain an economic powerhouse, how London will continue thriving.



Very few make the arguments about how things will go for the areas outside of the metropolis. Nobody says much about what will help make places like Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham etc attractive for investment when they lose the element of being cheaper gateways into the wider EU market. Remember when people said that Brexit was a slap in the face of the elite and the fatcats? Nobody seems to be acknowledging the fact that Brexit actually makes London, with its elites and fatcats, even more important to the British economy at the expense of the other cities further north. Brexit gives London even more dominance as the fulcrum of the economy.



So when you talk about Scotland potentially rethinking its position on Brexit and independence, there doesn't really seem to be anyone making a compelling case as to why it should. Saying that they might "play the waiting game" rather than anyone actually making a proactive argument seems to me indicative of a level of complacency which may well bring the UK to an end by the end of the new decade. Why should Scotland play a "waiting game" when they have essentially been ignored on Brexit and nobody is really passionately demonstrating how this works to Scotland's favour ?

Of course no-one is making that argument - yet. I am the only one in the country who thinks like I do! Hadn't you noticed?  

Sadly the rest of your post is simply more aggravation for those of us who do not believe that Brexit will be the end of the world. I don't know if you have noticed but the UK has breathed a sigh of relief, and once Christmas is over will be girding their loins for the challenges of the bright future awaiting us. Don't underestimate the ordinary man in the street. Show them the goal and they'll shoot for it.

[Sampanviking]

Its not difficult to understand the Scots impatience with this.

They see the leaders of the Baltic States, Small Mid European States, the Low Countries and even Luxenbourg feted at EU Summits, but Scotland like Cinderalla has to stay at home or be at best a bag carrier.



I though agree with Toots that they would do well to wait for the deal to finalised before pushing forward and not to let the lure of the trappings of statehood eclipse the real needs of Statecraft.

[cromwell]

The problem with this Toots is that absolutely nobody is making that argument — at least not to a significant volume.  A lot of people talk about London — how London will be resilient, how London will remain an economic powerhouse, how London will continue thriving.

Do they?

Very few make the arguments about how things will go for the areas outside of the metropolis. Nobody says much about what will help make places like Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham etc attractive for investment when they lose the element of being cheaper gateways into the wider EU market. Remember when people said that Brexit was a slap in the face of the elite and the fatcats? Nobody seems to be acknowledging the fact that Brexit actually makes London, with its elites and fatcats, even more important to the British economy at the expense of the other cities further north. Brexit gives London even more dominance as the fulcrum of the economy.

Well Boris will be a fool if he neglects the north and quickly find that he will pay the same price as labour

So when you talk about Scotland potentially rethinking its position on Brexit and independence, there doesn't really seem to be anyone making a compelling case as to why it should. Saying that they might "play the waiting game" rather than anyone actually making a proactive argument seems to me indicative of a level of complacency which may well bring the UK to an end by the end of the new decade. Why should Scotland play a "waiting game" when they have essentially been ignored on Brexit and nobody is really passionately demonstrating how this works to Scotland's favour ?

Well I don't think Sturgeon is expecting an Indyref next week and when it does occur (as it should ) the Scots will make their decision.As far as the UK coming to an end you might find the EU or rather its vision as a political union disappearing,as I've said previously were it still a common market we wouldn't have left.

[Conchúr]

I also see no reason that Scotland should stay, if as you say Barry, enough vote to leave. I do suspect though that Nicola Sturgeon was hopeful of using the euphoria of both the SNP and Conservative results to sweep a Ref through in a hurry. I do wonder and have said before, that some Scots might well be prepared to play a waiting game to see just what the deal is in the end and how that impacts on them before making their decision. There is bound to be some delay between our leaving the EU, a ref being agreed and then their application to rejoin the EU being carried through. They say a week is a long time in politics... They could be right.

The problem with this Toots is that absolutely nobody is making that argument — at least not to a significant volume.  A lot of people talk about London — how London will be resilient, how London will remain an economic powerhouse, how London will continue thriving.



Very few make the arguments about how things will go for the areas outside of the metropolis. Nobody says much about what will help make places like Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham etc attractive for investment when they lose the element of being cheaper gateways into the wider EU market. Remember when people said that Brexit was a slap in the face of the elite and the fatcats? Nobody seems to be acknowledging the fact that Brexit actually makes London, with its elites and fatcats, even more important to the British economy at the expense of the other cities further north. Brexit gives London even more dominance as the fulcrum of the economy.



So when you talk about Scotland potentially rethinking its position on Brexit and independence, there doesn't really seem to be anyone making a compelling case as to why it should. Saying that they might "play the waiting game" rather than anyone actually making a proactive argument seems to me indicative of a level of complacency which may well bring the UK to an end by the end of the new decade. Why should Scotland play a "waiting game" when they have essentially been ignored on Brexit and nobody is really passionately demonstrating how this works to Scotland's favour ?

[T00ts]

Thomas,

Most people on this forum, including myself, (not HQQ) seem to be in favour of Scotland leaving the union once they have had a referendum which proves to be in favour.

To say British democracy is a sham is a bit rich, really.

Get on with your referendum, even if "permission" is refused. Win it by > 50%+1 and we're with you (or in this case we won't be, coz you'll be gone). Until then, as you say, talk is cheap.

I also see no reason that Scotland should stay, if as you say Barry, enough vote to leave. I do suspect though that Nicola Sturgeon was hopeful of using the euphoria of both the SNP and Conservative results to sweep a Ref through in a hurry. I do wonder and have said before, that some Scots might well be prepared to play a waiting game to see just what the deal is in the end and how that impacts on them before making their decision. There is bound to be some delay between our leaving the EU, a ref being agreed and then their application to rejoin the EU being carried through. They say a week is a long time in politics... They could be right.

[Barry]

Thomas,

Most people on this forum, including myself, (not HQQ) seem to be in favour of Scotland leaving the union once they have had a referendum which proves to be in favour.

To say British democracy is a sham is a bit rich, really.

Get on with your referendum, even if "permission" is refused. Win it by > 50%+1 and we're with you (or in this case we won't be, coz you'll be gone). Until then, as you say, talk is cheap.

[Thomas]

It's clear you can't have a debate without chucking insults so go away.

 :: is the big question too hard for you nick " scotland isnt in britain"? :-?  ::

[Thomas]

Then there is the question of the SNP. Nine years ago it had only 6 seats and was barely on the radar. Five years later the party soars to 56, two years after that falls to 35 and now is on 48. Overall a very up and down sort of party that might well disappear in another decade. So Boris might just decide  to sit Wee Krankee out.

 ::  :roll: So we have streetwalker comforting himself over misinterpretations of nicola sturgeons words that the union is safe , now we have borkie talking absolute pish over the history of the snp.



I mean you are twice my age , yet for some reason your selective memory only goes back 9 years? The snp had a high watermark back in the early seventies of 16% of scottish seats , 11 /71 , and maintained a presence in westminster throughout the seventies eighties and nineties.



You tell me you like history , yet for some reason in the above quote you seem to suscribe to that english mythology that the union was one big happy family till alec salmond came along and upset the applecart by turning the jocks into mindless nationalists ? ::



Thats ignoring the first 113 years of your wonderfull union , where there was constant armed uprisings and rebellions to gain scottish independence?



Thats ignoring the founding of the modern Scottish national movement under the snp , millions of scots signing petitions for home rule in the fifties , the devolution referndum of the late seventies when westminster turned a yes vote into a no , the appeals to the council of europe in the eighties for home rule , the pressure brought to bear on major then blair in the nineties for devolution that forced the reconvening of the scottish parliament  ,then the modern re emergence of the snp as a political force in scotland  over the last 12 years?



You dont half talk some utter pish at times borkie .Sometimes you let wishfull thinking and del boy fantasy override fact down there in peckham. ::



I absolutely agree with your final sentence though borkie , on the face of it it looks like the great british democrats ( no laughing at the back) will decide to sit the snp out , and ignore them.



The question is what will the snp do in return?

[Nick]

There is no question mark about anything.



im asking what is the "british " democratic avenue for gaining a referendum? How does a party gain a mandate.?



How brexit is panning out or how the economy is doing is an irrelevant diversion to my point or what your uneducated perception of the high watermark for indy is.



As far as i can see it  , uk democracy as i have always said is a feckin sham.



To gain a brexit referendum , david cameron stood on a referendum ticket in 2015 , and got 36.9% of the vote. That allowed him to offer England ( hiding behind the name uk and gibraltar) a brexit referndum. Add in ukips vote and the high watermark , being generous to you , was 49.5 % of the total vote combined.



So why is a minority of the vote in england in 2015 democracy that allows you to have a referendum , but not in scotland in 2019?



Instead we are told you arent getting a vote , and our argument for this wonderfull unequal union is we are going to lock you up , and throw away the key .



As i always say , unionists move the goalposts when red lines are breached . Further where is the support for a second scottish indy ref from all those who were bleating to me from england they support scotland leaving the union?



As ever talk is cheap , and british democracy a sham.

It's clear you can't have a debate without chucking insults so go away

[Thomas]

There's a couple of question marks over that I believe.



Firstly how Brexit is panning out. If the UK economy is flying you may find the floating voters gravitate back to remain.



Secondly 45% might be the saturation point for indy at the moment and the recent GE might be like comparing apples and oranges.

There is no question mark about anything.



im asking what is the "british " democratic avenue for gaining a referendum? How does a party gain a mandate.?



How brexit is panning out or how the economy is doing is an irrelevant diversion to my point or what your uneducated perception of the high watermark for indy is.



As far as i can see it  , uk democracy as i have always said is a feckin sham.



To gain a brexit referendum , david cameron stood on a referendum ticket in 2015 , and got 36.9% of the vote. That allowed him to offer England ( hiding behind the name uk and gibraltar) a brexit referndum. Add in ukips vote and the high watermark , being generous to you , was 49.5 % of the total vote combined.



So why is a minority of the vote in england in 2015 democracy that allows you to have a referendum , but not in scotland in 2019?



Instead we are told you arent getting a vote , and our argument for this wonderfull unequal union is we are going to lock you up , and throw away the key .



As i always say , unionists move the goalposts when red lines are breached . Further where is the support for a second scottish indy ref from all those who were bleating to me from england they support scotland leaving the union?



As ever talk is cheap , and british democracy a sham.

[Borchester]

There's a couple of question marks over that I believe.



Firstly how Brexit is panning out. If the UK economy is flying you may find the floating voters gravitate back to remain.



Secondly 45% might be the saturation point for indy at the moment and the recent GE might be like comparing apples and oranges.

A few more points are that



(a) the Tories probably won't agree to a referendum because they have a handsome majority and don't have to.



(b) Boris can't agree to Indy2 until Brexit is out of the way because this would strengthen demands for a  2nd Referendum re membership of the EU.



Once we are out of the EU and the roof has not fallen in then all things are possible. But until then I doubt that the blond moppet will be taking any chances.



Then there is the question of the SNP. Nine years ago it had only 6 seats and was barely on the radar. Five years later the party soars to 56, two years after that falls to 35 and now is on 48. Overall a very up and down sort of party that might well disappear in another decade. So Boris might just decide  to sit Wee Krankee out.

[Nick]

Of course we still have to convince people  , that goes without saying and im sure it was just nicola sturgeon and her usual  modest manner being polite.



So what? What point are you making?



You know as well as i its all up for grabs , but the point i am saying to you is back in 2011 when the snp first won its majority , scottish indy was polling around 25%. By the indyref  three years later , we finished around 45 % as you know. We increased support 20 points in that time.



This time the polls are around 50/50 thereabouts within margin of error. Thats asking people if they would vote scottish indy tomorrow , without mentioning brexit.



Add brexit into the mix , european citizens who voted no to stay in the eu last time now voting yes , 16/17 year olds , biggest tory majority in england in years , we have a good chance.



The snp have only just gone and won the biggest majority in the last half century in scotland , that has only been beaten or equalled twice in that timeframe , once by labour and obviously the snp result in 2015. I think that is a mandate (yet again ) for another indy ref.



65% of scotland voted parties who want another indyref , 55 % voted parties who have a hard line policy of not accepting brexit , and 46 % voted for parties standing on a clear message of scottish independence.



I think it doable , and obviously so do the tories in london which is why they are trying to say no.



As i said to you in the aftermath of 2014 , if its no , then what? The snp wont disappear , could we reach the stage where scotland becomes ungovernable?



Its gone too far now and just like in ireland , theres no truning back.



You unionists problem is the vast majority of scotland do not want brexit , and the vast majority want to see another referendum , my problem is convincing them to leave the uk , and the tories are doing a great job yet again for us.



Thatcher and major had independence support through the roof , which was why eventually when blair came in he had to concede devolution to stop scotland leaving.

There's a couple of question marks over that I believe.



Firstly how Brexit is panning out. If the UK economy is flying you may find the floating voters gravitate back to remain.



Secondly 45% might be the saturation point for indy at the moment and the recent GE might be like comparing apples and oranges.