Coronavirus: What is a second wave and is one coming?

[Good old]

We have been told 80% of deaths have been people over seventy. There are thousands more ,many with an under lying, that have never throughout lockdown done more than had socially distanced walks. The point being .Is their introduction to something approaching normality going to fill hospital beds again.? And is it their absence that has lowered the death toll, as against an absence of the virus "

[johnofgwent]

Here is the mathematical model that says that only 5% of the population have been anywhere near the virus.

Of course, if this is bullshit, and 95% have not only had it but seen it off, and until we have antibody testing done to the entire population, e are none the wiser, this whole second wave business is smoke blown up the arse.

Whilst the 5% is bullshit, frankly so is 95%.  Without mass antibody testing no-one will ever know for certain.
(In the light of something a scientist stated last night about viruses like herpes apparently a small percentage of people could  always have have Covid-19 that will flare up from time to time and they will be infectious at those times, but next to no research is being done on that.

I agree with your first statement. I have been saying that without such testing nobody will ever know, for quite a while.

I'm rather fascinated with that second statement though.

It's not ENTIRELY "my bag", but it is my nephew's from his Ph.D and so to keep him on his toes it has rather become so.

I refer to the way certain viruses (chickenpox being a damn fine example) can breach the intracellular nuclear membrane, having first spoofed the outer cell membrane transport systems into allowing  themselves into the cytoplasm (and that very definitely was "my bag".

Once inside the cell nucleus, the viral nuclear material can open up your DNA at a telomere (start sequence for protein encoding) slide itself in and zip up the far end. Now maybe 20 years klater you go down with shingles

This ought to be a teensy bit awkward for COVID19 which is an RNA virus according to the publications describing the gene sequences which categorically state their sequence results have replaced Uracil with Thymidine and as such according to other recent research papers i have read categorically cannot activate the enzymes needed to enact that insertion (or in laymans terms use their onboard bottle openers to slip themselves inside your DNA)

[cromwell]

I know we have been following the science so say, but if infection can take 14 days or even more how are we making judgements on infections. Hasn't lockdown given a false sense of security? If the virus has weakened and infection is no longer a death warrant for some of us I for one need some persuasion. All I hear is that the chance of infection is manageable.  Once everyone is out there they are going to forget distancing so why am I hearing that it is safe. Safe is not a variable quantity for me.

They've decided it's all over because of the economy,it's really a case of no lives matter that much compared.
I agree with you though.

[papasmurf]

If the virus has weakened

There is no evidence it has, it isn't just Zimmer Frame  Pilots carking it.

[T00ts]

I know we have been following the science so say, but if infection can take 14 days or even more how are we making judgements on infections. Hasn't lockdown given a false sense of security? If the virus has weakened and infection is no longer a death warrant for some of us I for one need some persuasion. All I hear is that the chance of infection is manageable.  Once everyone is out there they are going to forget distancing so why am I hearing that it is safe. Safe is not a variable quantity for me.

[papasmurf]

About 960 new cases were detected yesterday and there were 15 deaths reported. Even taking into effect the weekend factor that is less than 50% of last week on the same day.
Infections are falling slowly, but deaths are falling quite sharply. Read into that what you will.
Our local hospital has only 12 +ve patients. At the peak there were more than 160.

Still over 4000 infections a day, (ONS.)

[Barry]

If the virus has truly reduced in strength then something needs to be said as a certainty. I can't help but feel that a lot is wishful thinking.

About 960 new cases were detected yesterday and there were 15 deaths reported. Even taking into effect the weekend factor that is less than 50% of last week on the same day.
Infections are falling slowly, but deaths are falling quite sharply. Read into that what you will.
Our local hospital has only 12 +ve patients. At the peak there were more than 160.

[T00ts]

I really feel that a 2nd wave is inevitable. How many countries are already experiencing one? It may be in pockets but it seems inevitable. I can't see that anything has changed. People are distancing until it doesn't suit them it seems. The NHS is returning to normal with a huge backlog to catch up with. In a month's time it may all be clearer but I am quite apprehensive that the return is going a pace before there are any results on the first actions. If the virus has truly reduced in strength then something needs to be said as a certainty. I can't help but feel that a lot is wishful thinking.

[papasmurf]

Here is the mathematical model that says that only 5% of the population have been anywhere near the virus.

Of course, if this is bullshit, and 95% have not only had it but seen it off, and until we have antibody testing done to the entire population, e are none the wiser, this whole second wave business is smoke blown up the arse.

Whilst the 5% is bullshit, frankly so is 95%.  Without mass antibody testing no-one will ever know for certain.
(In the light of something a scientist stated last night about viruses like herpes apparently a small percentage of people could  always have have Covid-19 that will flare up from time to time and they will be infectious at those times, but next to no research is being done on that.

[johnofgwent]

The 2nd wave in the 1918 outbreak was worse than the first, and caused by mass gatherings.

An absolutely critical component of the page referred to in the opening post (you did click it didn't you) is this

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/#/details/United_Kingdom

Here is the mathematical model that says that only 5% of the population have been anywhere near the virus.

Of course, if this is bullshit, and 95% have not only had it but seen it off, and until we have antibody testing done to the entire population, e are none the wiser, this whole second wave business is smoke blown up the arse.

But as I point out, to implement an antibody test and find far larger numbers are now immune than this model predicts, will make several politicians look stupid, and bankrupt a number of pharma companies hoping to profit from it.

Hence the very public attempts by the BBC and whoever is "briefing" them them to utterly dismantle the medical testimony of more widespread exposure and survival. It would drive a coach and horses through this....

[papasmurf]

The 2nd wave in the 1918 outbreak was worse than the first, and caused by mass gatherings.

[GBNews]

Coronavirus: What is a second wave and is one coming?

What are second waves and how big a problem are they?

Source: Coronavirus: What is a second wave and is one coming?