By-election wasn't just a bad result for the Tories - it was a disaster

[johnofgwent]

Whatever you say. However, a massive sample of the constituency electorate voted. I am sure that if one of the Polling companies had bothered to ask about 1,000 people, applying the usual weighting, the result would have been roughly similar.

Yes but you miss the point. It doesn't matter what 1,000 people think. Polling companies want to ram that fact out of your head because they will be unemployed very quickly if they cannot. But the hard fact is - as stated by every spin doctor on the losing end of any such poll "the only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day" 

And this has been seen here. Half the people who turned out in 2019 stayed at home and those who voted, voyed the way they did. 2009 saw upwards of eighty per cent of the electorate sit on their arse because they didnt give a F@@@ and the BNP got two MEP's as a direct result. 2010 saw a different resut and 2011 saw a totally different result because the people who empowered Clegg were so disgusted at his U turn they stayed away or thrned out in droves to vote against him.

My gut feeling is there will be a celebration in the Lizard area in two years time as the tory party will become extinct. But there is NOTHING in that by election result that defends that position other than the top line.

Because we do not know what the huge numbers who did not engage would have done. For all we know every one of them was a closet Lib Dem. There's nothing in those numbers with that degree of electoral rejection that can give heart to any side of the political spectrum. It is quite possible the proportion of votes cast in two years time will follow this and Fishy Rishi will be able to hold his party meetings in a London Cab like the Liberals at the time of David Steel and every elected MP will be a shadow mimister of three portfolios at least because that's the only way to get twenty jobs handed round. OR MAYBE the result here was deliberate, to give Fishy Rishi a boody nose knowing all it will do is drop is majority from 80 to 79 and in two years time KNOWING the whole country is being polled the tory voters may return to return a Tory.

YOU ** DONT ** KNOW  - and statistically -  YOU ** CANNOT ** PREDICT from this

That's all I can say from what I was taught as a scientist to make of such data.

But i do think 2024 will be fun and i'm off to order my popcorn now as there may not be any to reserve in two years time the way food deliveries are going (or not coming, to be more precise)

[Borchester]

Whatever you say. However, a massive sample of the constituency electorate voted. I am sure that if one of the Polling companies had bothered to ask about 1,000 people, applying the usual weighting, the result would have been roughly similar.

Could be. But the fact remains that it is just a by election, which is when the electorate takes innocent pleasure in kicking politicians in the wedding tackle, so the results can be safely ignored.

I have taken a deeply unscientific poll from friends and family Oop North and the consensus is that they don't think that the Tories have gone far enough. The big thing with them is immigration, although God alone knows why. The nearest any of them have come to an ethnic is Lenny Henry and that has only been on the telly. Still, we shall see what the next two years will bring

[morayloon]

Then don't ask for a job as a statistician.

Only half the usual voters turned out, which means it is impossible to extrapolate from the result.

Whatever you say. However, a massive sample of the constituency electorate voted. I am sure that if one of the Polling companies had bothered to ask about 1,000 people, applying the usual weighting, the result would have been roughly similar.

[Nick]

Rubbish! Toots referenced the percentage of the Labour vote in this election and called it no great shakes. I referenced the Tory percentage of the vote in this election. What on earth did you think I was talking about?

Its you who started talking about percentages of something completely different.

Fair enough, I've missed the connection there Steve, I apologise. 

[srb7677]

So let's look at derailing Steve. T00ts referenced the percentages concerning the by-election, YOU referenced some percentage about something nothing to do with THIS by-election, I referenced another set of percentages following your lead then YOU mentioned Brexit, so the straws on you I'm afraid.

Rubbish! Toots referenced the percentage of the Labour vote in this election and called it no great shakes. I referenced the Tory percentage of the vote in this election. What on earth did you think I was talking about?

Its you who started talking about percentages of something completely different.

[Nick]

The actual subject matter is the disastrous Tory defeat in the recent byelection. Nothing to do with Brexit. As for the damage Brexit has done, threads already exist for that. No need to derail this one with your usual straw men because you cannot think of anything positive to say about the byelection.

So let's look at derailing Steve. T00ts referenced the percentages concerning the by-election, YOU referenced some percentage about something nothing to do with THIS by-election, I referenced another set of percentages following your lead then YOU mentioned Brexit, so the straws on you I'm afraid.

[srb7677]

See, now you're talking rubbish Steve, you responded to my comment about the 4% margin of Brexit, which was very pertinent because you were engaged in whataboutary with percentages. I pointed out that your typical remainer position of cart blanche blaming everything on Brexit was unfounded unless you're putting all the things I mentioned down to Brexit. Maybe you should compare what is happening elsewhere in the world before slapping the Brexit sticker on everything willy nilly.

The actual subject matter is the disastrous Tory defeat in the recent byelection. Nothing to do with Brexit. As for the damage Brexit has done, threads already exist for that. No need to derail this one with your usual straw men because you cannot think of anything positive to say about the byelection.

[Nick]

That was in response to your straw man nonsense. Couldn't address the point so you chose to invent a load of others to attack instead. I simply responded to that as a separate point. Fact is the byelection was a disaster for the Tories and most of what is wrong in Britain today is down to them.

See, now you're talking rubbish Steve, you responded to my comment about the 4% margin of Brexit, which was very pertinent because you were engaged in whataboutary with percentages. I pointed out that your typical remainer position of cart blanche blaming everything on Brexit was unfounded unless you're putting all the things I mentioned down to Brexit. Maybe you should compare what is happening elsewhere in the world before slapping the Brexit sticker on everything willy nilly. 

[srb7677]

He just said exactly that

That was in response to your straw man nonsense. Couldn't address the point so you chose to invent a load of others to attack instead. I simply responded to that as a separate point. Fact is the byelection was a disaster for the Tories and most of what is wrong in Britain today is down to them.

[Nick]

Well I have always said the idiot vote is one of the largest voting blocs in this country, so many were attracted by the have your cake and eat it argument without being intelligent enough to understand that it could never work that way.

[highlight]I doubt whether 52% support Brexit now that hard reality is slapping some of them in the face.[/highlight]

That almost defines strawman. srb7677 said none of those things, did he? The Tories have had 12 years in power. Virtually all the current problems have their name on them.

He just said exactly that, when you post the two items together, instead of isolating one to make it seem out of context.


He said basically the hard reality of Brexit slapping us in the face over what is happening today.
The reality is that the things listed below are causing the problems we face today, so using Steve's analysis Brexit must have:

Caused a global pandemic.
Started a war.
Created a GLOBAL shortage of truck drivers.
Created a GLOBAL shortage of serving staff.
Created a GLOBAL Wheat shortage that is affecting many industries.
Created a GLOBAL fuel crisis.
Caused inflation to climb GLOBALLY.

The truth is that Remoaners are so bitter and twisted they will try and pin anything on Brexit, when in reality any dip caused by Brexit has been well and truly masked by Covid and now Vlad. By the time those two incidents have dissipated the Brexit blip will have been and gone undetected.
The only thing that did show it's face after Brexit was fishing and we know why that was, the spiteful French, but they couldn't keep that going cause they eat so much fish, hence fishing is almost back to where it was. And here is the proof so don't bother with your Bivalve war dance Smurf.

[Barry]

So according to you, Brexit has:
Caused a global pandemic.
Started a war.
Created a GLOBAL shortage of truck drivers.
Created a GLOBAL shortage of serving staff.
Created a GLOBAL Wheat shortage that is affecting many industries.
Created a GLOBAL fuel crisis.
Caused inflation to climb GLOBALLY.

You're mad.

That almost defines strawman. srb7677 said none of those things, did he? The Tories have had 12 years in power. Virtually all the current problems have their name on them.

[papasmurf]

So according to you, Brexit has:
Caused a global pandemic.
Started a war.
Created a GLOBAL shortage of truck drivers.
Created a GLOBAL shortage of serving staff.
Created a GLOBAL Wheat shortage that is affecting many industries.
Created a GLOBAL fuel crisis.
Caused inflation to climb GLOBALLY.

You're mad.

Nick, several of those problems are worse in Britain because of Brexit.

[Nick]

Well I have always said the idiot vote is one of the largest voting blocs in this country, so many were attracted by the have your cake and eat it argument without being intelligent enough to understand that it could never work that way.

I doubt whether 52% support Brexit now that hard reality is slapping some of them in the face.

So according to you, Brexit has:
Caused a global pandemic. 
Started a war. 
Created a GLOBAL shortage of truck drivers. 
Created a GLOBAL shortage of serving staff. 
Created a GLOBAL Wheat shortage that is affecting many industries. 
Created a GLOBAL fuel crisis. 
Caused inflation to climb GLOBALLY. 

You're mad. 

[cromwell]

And 52% is bigger than 48% but quite a few on here don't comprehend that!!

That depends 

[srb7677]

And 52% is bigger than 48% but quite a few on here don't comprehend that!!

Well I have always said the idiot vote is one of the largest voting blocs in this country, so many were attracted by the have your cake and eat it argument without being intelligent enough to understand that it could never work that way.

I doubt whether 52% support Brexit now that hard reality is slapping some of them in the face.