This is why we shouldn't rush things...

[Baff]

In all honesty if the extra cost of getting your product approved makes the business unviable, the next minor fluctuation in currency was going to wipe you out anyway.
You didn't have a viable business in the first place.

[BeElBeeBub]

here's another one

Get the right certificates of conformity to move fruit and vegetables into or through the EU

It takes 48 hours
You risk your goods being delayed or rejected at the border if you do not meet both UK and EU marketing standards and have the right documentation.
....
For exports from the UK to the EU, you may also need a certificate of conformity issued by EU inspection agencies as the EU may not accept UK-issued certificates from 1 January 2021. The UK government is working with the EU to simplify these processes, but you should get both UK and EU-issued certificates of conformity before 1 January 2021.

How you apply for an EU-issued certificate of conformity varies for each EU member state. You'll need to contact the appropriate authority at the destination country for guidance on applying for a certificate.

So exporters of UK fruit and veg now have 6 months to navigate getting certificates of conformity in an EU member state just to keep exporting (to be fair, this is unlikely to be an issue until late spring next year so maybe a little longer).

All of this is going on against the backdrop of a pandemic and recession which will cut manpower and constrain cash to do all of the above.

Some companies may just pack it in.

My neighbour's son just got made redundant today.  In part because of CV making his company's primary product useless but also because the extra bureaucracy looming (most of their business is in Europe) was just too much.  The owners decided to cut their losses and wind up. 

Never fight a war on two fronts

[BeElBeeBub]

My prediction is 10 years from now the UK car industry will be shadow of it's current self.

But you are a pessimist, BeElBeeBub, (Why did you choose such a damn awkward username?) BEBB will do.

I'm an optimist, and I see the UK becoming a world leader in the assembly and manufacture of electric and hydrogen powered cars, as the government are freed up to finance firms and multinationals to grow British manufacturing to compete on the world markets.

Beelb or bebb will do

So how do you see the UK becoming this world leader in new car tech?

In boom times the UK care market was around 2.5m a year.

A typical large car plant need to make cars in the 100k plus range.  Sunderland made around 400k per year.

So to be a world leader, UK car production would have to far outstrip UK demand.  That means exporting cars abroad, which is great but where to?

The US is putting up trade barriers and is intent on bringing as much production to the US as possible.

We face trade barriers (both tariff and Non tariff) to the EU, US, China, India, Brazil.  In fact pretty much every large market.

Even getting FTAs isn't going to help much unless we manage to get the rules of origin changed and "diagonal cumulation" because most cars built in the UK don't contain enough UK parts to count for an FTA and we can't realistically build enough components competitively to make a car with enough UK content.

So far no Leaver has managed to explain how we overcome these details.  It's always "you have to believe" or "don't be pessimistic".

I want to believe, but there are these problems in front of us and nobody from the leave side seems able to explain in detail how we will overcome them.  The can is always kicked down the road on everything.

Did you take a look at the link I posted showing all the various impacts on business that will hit us on 1st Jan?

Just as an example if you run a business that provides digital services to the EU, say some sort of app, or business backend software solution.

You need to appoint a representative in the EU and go through whatever registration steps are required by whichever country you pick by the end of the year.

So in the midst of a pandemic, you have 6 months to select candidate agents, vet them, engage them (or a firm), and then navigate foreign procedures to register correctly just to keep doing whatever it is you are doing.

And that's one tiny aspect of one sliver of business.

[Barry]

My prediction is 10 years from now the UK car industry will be shadow of it's current self.

But you are a pessimist, BeElBeeBub, (Why did you choose such a damn awkward username?) BEBB will do.

I'm an optimist, and I see the UK becoming a world leader in the assembly and manufacture of electric and hydrogen powered cars, as the government are freed up to finance firms and multinationals to grow British manufacturing to compete on the world markets.

[BeElBeeBub]

If I were a car worker in Britain I would be investigating my options for the impending loss of all car production in Britain.

Really?? Why don't you tell those Car workers in Barcelona that.....they would be more than mildly surprised at your comment....and maybe you could spell out the details of the UK/EU trade agreement, or absolute refusal to make one, that most of us hadn't realised had been reached yet.

Come the crash out next January the 1st, there will be no UK based car production within weeks.

don't know about "weeks" but I expect Renault won't invest in any more new models at Sunderland.  So when the current models come round for replacement the plant will downsize.

Toyota probably won't reinvest either.  They'll just let production wither away naturally.

I expect the ford engine plants to wind down as IC engine demand slows and European plants take up the slack as electric drive train production increases

Other makers will stay in the UK, Morgan, Aston Martin, JLR etc partly because their brand is very made in Britain heavy.

Mini will be an interesting case as their brand is quite British but maybe nobody care where the cars are actually built.

My prediction is 10 years from now the UK car industry will be shadow of it's current self.

[papasmurf]

If I were a car worker in Britain I would be investigating my options for the impending loss of all car production in Britain.

Really?? Why don't you tell those Car workers in Barcelona that.....they would be more than mildly surprised at your comment....and maybe you could spell out the details of the UK/EU trade agreement, or absolute refusal to make one, that most of us hadn't realised had been reached yet.

Come the crash out next January the 1st, there will be no UK based car production within weeks.

[Stevlin]

If I were a car worker in Britain I would be investigating my options for the impending loss of all car production in Britain.

Really?? Why don't you tell those Car workers in Barcelona that.....they would be more than mildly surprised at your comment....and maybe you could spell out the details of the UK/EU trade agreement, or absolute refusal to make one, that most of us hadn't realised had been reached yet.

[papasmurf]

if I were a car worker at the BMW works in Dingolfing, I would pay more attention to the frugal lady asking the questions.
__________________

If I were a car worker in Britain I would be investigating my options for the impending loss of all car production in Britain.

[Borchester]

I think that we have been here before. Still, here is my take on the matter...

We have been getting this sort of thing since forever. In the run up to the 2016 referendum we were told that should the UK even think about leaving the EU then the economy would crash, grass would grow in the streets and we would have to start eating our young. Most everyone believed that, including the Brexiters who accepted it as the price of freedom.

In practice the economy has ticked over quietly, unemployment has fallen to its lowest in 50 years and things seem pretty good. God knows why, I certainly haven't been working any harder, but there you are.

The world has been due a recession for the last couple of years but it it still has not arrived. I have been predicting a slowdown for yonks and the current prosperity is not doing my street cred much good.

Overall I reckon the ones to get a hiding won't be the British but the Germans. Half of Germany's GDP is reliant upon exports, which makes them particularly vulnerable to any sort of fall off in foreign trade. Last week there was a chap on the TV saying that leaving the EU would mean that we would pay more for German cars, whereupon a lass in the audience said no we would not because if the price rose we would stop buying foreign cars. And the chap explained that he was an economist and understood such matters, whereupon the lady replied that might be the case but that should the price of a new motor not be to her liking, she would hang onto her current beamer that much longer. I am sure that the economist is a clever bloke, but if I were a car worker at the BMW works in Dingolfing, I would pay more attention to the frugal lady asking the questions.



__________________

[Thomas]

I'm getting old and my memory isn't what it should be, but do you have a link to where I said those things?

You know i dont  , as it was on the old forum , and as you know the old forum doesnt exist anymore. Dont worry though beelbeeb , im here to jog your memory , and point out that ever moving bed of sand you anglo remainers have built your house on.

Polling consistently shows a majority for remain,

So you have been telling us since before the actual brexit referendum itself , yet over roughly the last five years you havent won a single vote in that time.

but FPTP

Brexiters won 2015 , 2017 , and 2019 under FPTP its true. We all know the pitfalls and anti democratic value of FPTP , yet the SNP still manage to play the system and win , so why cant you?

On top of that , you lost the referndum itself which wasnt held under FPTP , and the european elections jan `19 , so what are you talking about?

When push comes to shove , despite all the waffle you give out on forums such as these , when it comes to the ballot box , the people just dont agree with you.

combined with Jeremy Corbyn being a disaster,

Ah the old "its all wurzels fault " trope the left are now taking solace in.

Load of absolute rubbish in my opinion. Labour were trounced in decemebr not because of jeremy corbyn , but because they forced the man , who was a lifelong brexiter , into the position of sitting on the brexit fence when we all knew he supported brexit , and the party under the direction of keir starmer and other blairites , taking an anti democtic stance for four years in fighting the referendum result.

The public got sick of it , and hammered them . You heard this first hand from english labour voters like deppity dawg and cromwell , many of whom voted tory for the first time.

Stop trying to re write history to suit your failing agenda.

means we have conservative majority.

You have a conservative majority because the tories are an electoral machine that jumped on the back of the publics brexit opinion while labour fought against it. Its that simple , no matter how unpalatable this is for you.

My best hope for the last election was to deny the Cons a majority.

I seem to remember you talking about a remain coaltion  , and i asked how would this work when the snp were predicted to be the third largest party at westminster and none of the english remain parties would get into bed with them?

You are so out of touch politically beelbeeb its unreal.

Remain was too divided to have a chance. Northern irish and scottish remainers  , which you oft ignored , were also by and large anti uk , and you constantly glossed over this as it didnt fit your status quo world.

The paper said "leave the EU", the UK has left the EU. You don't get to keep stretching the definition of what was written on the ballot paper.

The referendum said nothing about leaving the single market, in fact the campaign was explicit that we wouldn't leave the single market.

Hang on you dont get to define what brexit meant either.

We all agreed its was a blank sheet of paper by definition , but over the four years red lines were introduced , and prior to the referendum , brexiters like streetwalker wanted out of FOM , borchester wanted out of ECJ , and everyone agreed the uk couldnt remain in the CU.

None of these things have happened yet , hence brexit isnt done.

If you think , despite all that has happend you can sell some BRINO despite the utter kicking you received only last december , you really are delusional.

The public arent stupid , and this is the mistake you remainers in england keep making again and again. You underestimate their knowledge , and think you can sell them a pig in a poke to somehow remain.

The fact transition means we have to follow the rules with no say in them is exactly what was predicted and why we should have left in the first place.

Everybody understands this.

My point to you is twofold...

1. Transition isnt brexit. Its at best a half way house .

2. It has to come to an end , which is what you are trying to stop at present.

Unfortunately, unless we extend we are in for a massive economic shock come January.

YAWN.###

My prediction - we'll ultimately end up following either the EU rules or US rules fairly closely with no say in them.

Get used to it, it's our future

You are someone who has been consistently wrong in each and everyone of your predictions over the last five years , so thanks but i will pass.

Theres a difference between sensibly trying to rpedict what will happen , and predicting based on your own warped delusion.

[BeElBeeBub]

Alright beelbeeb , im not going to keep arguing with your delusion.

You were the same guy last year who was telling us remainers had won the european elections cause of some dodgy bbc graphic , and then telling us the silent remain majority , that you always seem to talk about but which never appear at elections , was going to vote the tories out in decembers election.

So you will forgive me if i dont take any notice of your latest wheeze about the uk having left the eu.

I'm getting old and my memory isn't what it should be, but do you have a link to where I said those things?

The BXP got the most seats after they scooped up a bunch of conservative votes.

Polling consistently shows a majority for remain, and the majority of people voted for parties that wanted a 2nd referendum, but FPTP combined with Jeremy Corbyn being a disaster, means we have conservative majority.  My best hope for the last election was to deny the Cons a majority.  That was the most that was plausible and even then it was unlikely (which is why I thought a GE was a massive mistake by Labour)

The uk has ceased to be part of the eu political institutions , but the transition period means we have stayed part of the economic insititutions , so therfore we havent fully brexited , and wont do so till the end of the year.

The paper said "leave the EU", the UK has left the EU. You don't get to keep stretching the definition of what was written on the ballot paper.

The referendum said nothing about leaving the single market, in fact the campaign was explicit that we wouldn't leave the single market.

The fact transition means we have to follow the rules with no say in them is exactly what was predicted and why we should have left in the first place.

Unfortunately, unless we extend we are in for a massive economic shock come January.

My prediction - we'll ultimately end up following either the EU rules or US rules fairly closely with no say in them.

Get used to it, it's our future

[Thomas]

We've left the EU, the mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fully and completely discharged.

In the mean time we have 6 months for everyone to get used to

Alright beelbeeb , im not going to keep arguing with your delusion.

You were the same guy last year who was telling us remainers had won the european elections cause of some dodgy bbc graphic , and then telling us the silent remain majority , that you always seem to talk about but which never appear at elections , was going to vote the tories out in decembers election.

So you will forgive me if i dont take any notice of your latest wheeze about the uk having left the eu.

The House of Commons has voted and, three-and-a-half years after the Brexit referendum, the U.K. will officially leave the European Union on January 31.

But nothing has been solved and, for some time, nothing will change. Come February 1, the U.K. will be faced with the same reality it confronted last year: the EU is a tough nut to crack.

Britain will remain in the EU, for all practical purposes, until December. In this so-called transition period, it will have the same rights and will be subjected to the same laws and regulations as the other 27 member states, except that it won't have any say in EU decisions.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/brexit-is-due-on-january-31-but-britain-will-remain-in-the-eu-for-all-practical-purposes-until-december-51578667191

The uk has ceased to be part of the eu political institutions , but the transition period means we have stayed part of the economic insititutions , so therfore we havent fully brexited , and wont do so till the end of the year.

What has stayed the same?

The UK will stay part of the EU's economic institutions and security co-operation arrangements until the end of the transition period.

The UK will also continue to be treated as a member of the single market and customs union, and the EU has requested that states with EU trade agreements treat the UK as a member state until the end of transition.

Freedom of movement remains in place and citizens' rights continue unaffected until the end of the period.

The UK remains be subject to EU law and the rulings of the European Court of Justice throughout the transition period.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-transition-period

[BeElBeeBub]

We've left the EU, the mandate of the 2016 referendum has been fully and completely discharged.

In the mean time we have 6 months for everyone to get used to this little lot

[Thomas]

All true.

Sometime in the not so distant future the Taoiseach will stand before the assembled Teachtai and proclaim that Ireland is now united and he will be cheered to the echo by all but the NTMA who will think, oh f**k, 2 million arseless Ulster folk with begging bowls at the ready, how are we supposed to pay for that?

And the bulk of the UK mainlanders, who don't give a toss if Northern Ireland becomes part of the Republic or Boston Massachusetts will think well there you are, tough on the Micks but be careful what you wish for.

All except for Bebe who will go on and on about the UK being unable to leave the EU because Boris Johnson's dog Dilyn has the flu. Or something....

LMFAO.

Pretty much borkie. Poor auld beelbeeb is standing in a dark room shouting at himself over brexit.

He is carrying on the old fight from 2016 , and re running old old arguments over and over again and again like a broken down record , while everyone else is moving on and weighing up their options and next political moves.

[Borchester]

Brexit is almost done , and the uk is leaving by hook or crook at the end of the year.

You are arguin over issues that appear to be important to yourself , but very few others  , such as who has read the WA or borders in the irish sea.

To be quite frank , no one actually gives a feck wether or not there will be a border in the irish sea with the possible exception of northern irish unionists. I have been saying for a long time now , despite the fantasies of certain remainers , northern ireland isnt in any way going to tie england and wales to the eu  in order to keep the union together.

All true.

Sometime in the not so distant future the Taoiseach will stand before the assembled Teachtai and proclaim that Ireland is now united and he will be cheered to the echo by all but the NTMA who will think, oh F@@@, 2 million arseless Ulster folk with begging bowls at the ready, how are we supposed to pay for that?

And the bulk of the UK mainlanders, who don't give a toss if Northern Ireland becomes part of the Republic or Boston Massachusetts will think well there you are, tough on the Micks but be careful what you wish for.

All except for Bebe who will go on and on about the UK being unable to leave the EU because Boris Johnson's dog Dilyn has the flu. Or something....