Syrian War

[patman post]

Now Turkey is claiming 33 Turkish soldiers have been killed by Syrian forces. As Syria is backed by Russia, and Turkey is buying arms and other materiel from Russia, the whole affair of who supports who is getting confused...



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/dozens-of-turkish-soldiers-killed-in-strike-in-idlib-in-syria-reports-say">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... eports-say">https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/dozens-of-turkish-soldiers-killed-in-strike-in-idlib-in-syria-reports-say

[Sampanviking]

Tensions seriously mounting in Idlib at present.



In short, the Syrian Army is conducting a massive operation in the south of Idlib to recapture a large scrotum shaped bulge of territory that hangs down form the Motorway that runs from Saraqib to Latakia.. They are doing very well here, despite it being very mountainous terrain and look likely to to take all this territory to a line just north of the Motorway.



The rebels however, in open conjunction with the Turkish military, have started a counter offensive against Saraqib and its environs. They have also had success with mixed stories saying that they have captured Saraqib or the the Westenr part of it and other towns nearby.



The main support from Turkey so far appears to be material, in terms of armoured vehicles and Fire Support from their Artillery. Reading between the lines, it sounds as though the 50 or so Turkish dead yesterday and many more injured were from a Counter Battery Airstrike against this artillery.

The Turks are blaming the Syrians, everybody else is pointing out that most airstrikes in this offensive are from Russian Military Aircraft or Missiles.



Either so, very very perilous as we hang on the edge of a real regional war, bringing in the Russians, The Iranians and of course the Kurds directly agains the Turklish Military in all the areas of Syria, where they have been deployed.

[papasmurf]

Pin pricks of facts often misleading and often days out of date before even published. The latest article is three days old and contains virtually no meaningful background .

Par for the course.

[Sampanviking]

More or less daily reports on the BBC:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-51488749/syria-war-displaced-forced-to-camp-in-freezing-temperatures">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-mid ... mperatures">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-51488749/syria-war-displaced-forced-to-camp-in-freezing-temperatures

Pin pricks of facts often misleading and often days out of date before even published. The latest article is three days old and contains virtually no meaningful background .



Since I first posted this afternoon, the Syrian Army has reported it has achieved a total victory in taking all the last outer Suburbs of North Western Aleppo and all the major towns of the Anadan plain including Hraytan, Babis, and 'Anadan. Babis is well to the West of the others and so it shows that the Syrians have now a massive buffer zone around the City.



Its also being reported that Russian forces and Military Police are being deployed along the length of the newly liberated stretches of the Damascus Aleppo highway, manning multiple checkpoints. This would make the prospect of a Turkish Intervention less and less likely.

[papasmurf]

Surprised by how little of this is making the main news over here.

More or less daily reports on the BBC:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-51488749/syria-war-displaced-forced-to-camp-in-freezing-temperatures">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-mid ... mperatures">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-51488749/syria-war-displaced-forced-to-camp-in-freezing-temperatures

[Sampanviking]

Thanks Barry



The helicopter shoot downs are more related to skirmishes between Syrian Army forces and Turkish forces in heavily fortified "observation posts" many of which are now deep in Government territory. Both shoot downs seem to be due to the Turks providing the Terrorists with much more advanced Shoulder PAD SAM systems. Some sources are claiming it was the Turks themselves that did the shoot downs, but no official channel is claiming this.

[Barry]

I've missed your informed reports.

Funny really, as the only stuff dribbling through in the MSM is that a couple of Syrian army helicopters had been shot down. Which according to your post is hardly the story being told and could be being reported to make it look as if Assad is losing.

[Sampanviking]

Surprised by how little of this is making the main news over here.



The Syrian Army is literally steam rolling the Jihadist forces and Turkish backed rebels in Idlib and Western Aleppo provinces.



The main thrust of the current offensive has to clear the Eastern Side of the Terrorist held pocket and to fully open the Damascus to Aleppo highway.

This has now been fully achieved and which was partly reported at the time as the capture by the state army of the Cities of Marat al Numan and Saraqib.



The focus of the last few days has been the outer suburbs of Western Aleppo itself and the outlying Anadan plain, areas that terrorist factions have held since 2013. The Syrian Army has reclaimed nearly all of the key suburbs over the last few days. Events are moving very quickly today with a rapid encirclement of Terrorists in the Anadan plains (North West of Aleppo city and which seems to have prompted a massive terrorist withdrawal from this former stronghold.



This is I think the issue of the story, that many of these places were regarded as long term terrorist strongholds but which are now going down like nine pins.



The Turks are now making very bellicose noises and threatening to Invade Idlib with its actual armed forces. Is this a realistic threat?

The Turkish army is large and western equipped yes, but they would be going against a now very veteran Syrian Army, which itself is now armed with near state of the Art Russian Weapons and Vehicles.

I also suspect that such a move would be taken as a declaration of war by both Iraq and Iran. It would be anybodies guess as the reaction if any of the embedded Russian forces with the SAA were killed by the Turks.

In addition I would not see too many of Turkey's allies jumping to it defense, if it openly attacked the Syrian Army.



I think the biggest ace to use against the Turks is this. Russia/Syria is not about to start giving advanced heavy weapons to the Kurdish SDF forces. If however these forces decided to fully integrate into the Syrian State Army......



This is however a very fast moving situation and literally anything could happen in the next few days or even hours!