A brief history of embarrassing economic forecasts

[cromwell]

After World War 2, The Volkswagen factory came under the control of the British authorities and was offered to British car manufacturers free of charge. Nobody took up the offer.

A report by the British motor industry on VW's product, the original Beetle, concluded "the vehicle does not meet the fundamental technical requirement of a motor-car..."

Cobblers and do get your history right.
Volkswagen came within the British occupation zone,a British officer in reality saved VW that's not British propaganda but the Germans talking.
They even named a street after him.

https://www.hagerty.com/media/automotive-history/how-major-ivan-hirst-and-the-british-government-saved-vw-after-wwii/

[papasmurf]

After World War 2, The Volkswagen factory came under the control of the British authorities and was offered to British car manufacturers free of charge.
A report by the British motor industry on VW's product, the original Beetle, concluded "the vehicle does not meet the fundamental technical requirement of a motor-car..."

Neither did a Morris 1000.

[HDQQ]

After World War 2, The Volkswagen factory came under the control of the British authorities and was offered to British car manufacturers free of charge. Nobody took up the offer.

A report by the British motor industry on VW's product, the original Beetle, concluded "the vehicle does not meet the fundamental technical requirement of a motor-car..."

[Thomas]

From 1941 to 1943 J K Galbraith was deputy head of the US Office of Price Administration. Since America was coming out of the Great Depression and prices were therefore rising, Galbraith was not a popular bunny. To make matters worse he realised that rationing was best achieved by quantity rather than price. So halfway through his tenure he changed the direction of the OPA into how much rather how much it cost.

No one seemed to notice. As Galbraith cheerfully noted, he was loathed by all sides and condemned whatever he did.

hang on borkie gerry wants to talk to us about economics

[Borchester]

Many are familiar with the old aphorism that in real estate the three most important determinants of value are location, location, location. Things are a bit different in making economic forecasts and predictions, where two variables matter most: accuracy, of course, but also timing.

Regarding accuracy: a lengthy list of economists — some quite eminent — have ended up with egg on their faces because of inaccurate predictions and forecasts. In this regard, there's the observation by the distinguished economist Irving Fisher, 92 years ago today on October 16, 1929, that stock prices had reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau'. Since the Great Crash occurred two weeks later, Fisher's timing wasn't so great either.

A less eminent, but once high-profile Indian-American economist named Ravi Batra published popular books in 1989 and 1999 predicting global depressions in 1990 and 2000, which depressions never came about.

Another high-profile economist, Lester Thurow — author of many books and one-time dean of MIT's Sloan School of Management — published a bestseller in 1992 called Head to Head, wherein he predicted that China 'will not have a big impact on the world economy in the first half of the 21st century'. Oops. One reason perhaps that this economist's detractors sometimes referred to him as 'Less Than Thurow'.  And while more of an assessment than a forecast, the editors at Fortune, lest we forget, named Enron 'America's most innovative company' for six straight years between 1996 and 2001. In Fortune's defense, I suppose it could be argued that Enron was in fact innovative — just not in the ways the magazine thought!

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/economic-forecasts-dow-jones-36000/

From 1941 to 1943 J K Galbraith was deputy head of the US Office of Price Administration. Since America was coming out of the Great Depression and prices were therefore rising, Galbraith was not a popular bunny. To make matters worse he realised that rationing was best achieved by quantity rather than price. So halfway through his tenure he changed the direction of the OPA into how much rather how much it cost.

No one seemed to notice. As Galbraith cheerfully noted, he was loathed by all sides and condemned whatever he did.

[Thomas]

Many are familiar with the old aphorism that in real estate the three most important determinants of value are location, location, location. Things are a bit different in making economic forecasts and predictions, where two variables matter most: accuracy, of course, but also timing.

Regarding accuracy: a lengthy list of economists — some quite eminent — have ended up with egg on their faces because of inaccurate predictions and forecasts. In this regard, there's the observation by the distinguished economist Irving Fisher, 92 years ago today on October 16, 1929, that stock prices had reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau'. Since the Great Crash occurred two weeks later, Fisher's timing wasn't so great either.

A less eminent, but once high-profile Indian-American economist named Ravi Batra published popular books in 1989 and 1999 predicting global depressions in 1990 and 2000, which depressions never came about.

Another high-profile economist, Lester Thurow — author of many books and one-time dean of MIT's Sloan School of Management — published a bestseller in 1992 called Head to Head, wherein he predicted that China 'will not have a big impact on the world economy in the first half of the 21st century'. Oops. One reason perhaps that this economist's detractors sometimes referred to him as 'Less Than Thurow'.  And while more of an assessment than a forecast, the editors at Fortune, lest we forget, named Enron 'America's most innovative company' for six straight years between 1996 and 2001. In Fortune's defense, I suppose it could be argued that Enron was in fact innovative — just not in the ways the magazine thought!

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/economic-forecasts-dow-jones-36000/