So all members are equal are they?

[Tbird]

But the key is we can do our own trade deals and control our borders. Regulatory alignment has never been a big issue.

For me, the key points for the new deal is:

1. The arrangement only covers NI, and there is a way for NI to get out for EU regulation every 4 years WITH NO FALLBACK PLAN. So NI can play no deal by simply vote no to renewal and refuse any new arrangements.

2. UK is in charge of how the NI custom arrangement/regulation operates. Yes, there is a join UK-EU committee to monitored it, but violations only counts if it get caught. And if UK keep a blind eyes on purpose/under-resourced, it will be extremely difficult for EU to exercise the arrangement UNLESS THEY DO CUSTOM CHECK ON BORDER OR SHIPPING FROM IRELAND

3. Those EU- rule tariff revenues in NI goes straight to HM's coffer, not a dime will go to Brussels. So potentially, UK can by-pass EU's custom rules by providing tax-deduction/refund to any NI business that ALSO registered in London. Again, with a much reduced budget after brexit, how much man-power and resource can EU devoted to monitor a custom arrangement that do not generate any revenue for them will be a problem for Dublin and Brussels, not London.

4. Those stupid "level playing field" are no longer part of WA, but in a non legal binding political declaration (something as legal binding as the wedding vows).



So overall, while on paper, both deal say "be faithful to EU", but in practice, traitor May's deal is like putting on a chastity belt and EU will keep the keys, while in BoJo's deal, what stopping UK from banging everything that move is mostly for the goodwill between both side.



That sounds a very big different to me.

[GerryT]

My best guess is Boris will fail by a few votes,there will be more hot air from the house of bollocks and perhaps some sort of constitutional crisis,an election will really have to be called at which point the eu will offer an extension.



If there is no clear cut winner of that election and decisive course taken what has been called the disconnect between Westminster and the rest of the country will become a chasm.



Labour will get a well deserved kicking and my greatest fear is that extremist will try to use the situation to their advantage.



If I'm totally wrong I'll use my mod powers to quietly bin it and hope nobody notices :-P .........no I won't because I'm not a lying politician,might stick it in the joke section though ::

I'm not sure about the extension, saw a little bit of Juncker last night and he was quizzed on that. He seemed quite dismissive, hinting what would an extension bring. In the end it's not his decision, the 27 council members will decide, but he has a point what would another extension bring. Maybe if Johnson got a majority he could roll out this plan again and have it passed but that would cause uproar. Thinking over night It's starting to look like a hard brexit.

What could happen is Johnson looks for his extension after a failed vote, but the EU offer one with a number of conditions which aren't acceptable to the UK and then the hard brexit happens by default.

There has been compromise on both sides but this plan could work, it's only a temporary arrangement until a future trade deal is struck, I wouldn't doubt the NI arrangement will change as part of that.

[Borchester]

My guess is that the Tories will rally behind the deal and a lot of the opposition will abstain, which should result in the government winning by a few votes.



Apparently Leo Varadkar wants a general election by May 2020, so he will do what he can to make Brexit as painless as possible. That will probably result in a flood of cheap Irish beef because the farmers in the ROI are moaning about the lousy deals they are getting from their own food processors.



Ulster's main industry is demanding bungs from the mainland, so I can't see how trade will be affected.



As has been said before by several posters, the big question is going to be how will Boris kid Corbyn into a general election? It will be electoral suicide for Wurzel, but no one can possibly doubt Boris' rat like cunning.

[Borchester]

My best guess is Boris will fail by a few votes,there will be more hot air from the house of bollocks and perhaps some sort of constitutional crisis,an election will really have to be called at which point the eu will offer an extension.



If there is no clear cut winner of that election and decisive course taken what has been called the disconnect between Westminster and the rest of the country will become a chasm.



Labour will get a well deserved kicking and my greatest fear is that extremist will try to use the situation to their advantage.



If I'm totally wrong I'll use my mod powers to quietly bin it and hope nobody notices :-P .........no I won't because I'm not a lying politician,might stick it in the joke section though ::

[cromwell]

Only if the Saturday vote approves this agreement. Interesting couple of days.

My best guess is Boris will fail by a few votes,there will be more hot air from the house of bollocks and perhaps some sort of constitutional crisis,an election will really have to be called at which point the eu will offer an extension.



If there is no clear cut winner of that election and decisive course taken what has been called the disconnect between Westminster and the rest of the country will become a chasm.



Labour will get a well deserved kicking and my greatest fear is that extremist will try to use the situation to their advantage.



If I'm totally wrong I'll use my mod powers to quietly bin it and hope nobody notices :-P .........no I won't because I'm not a lying politician,might stick it in the joke section though ::

[GerryT]

An end quote has gone missing there so everything is being quoted Gerry.



What it does do is negates the Benn Act as we have a deal so no extension required.

Only if the Saturday vote approves this agreement. Interesting couple of days.

[Conchúr]

But the key is we can do our own trade deals and control our borders. Regulatory alignment has never been a big issue.

True, the UK can of course start negotiating its own trade deals — though of course there are no guarantees that they will be more or even equally advantageous than those it has now. But the problem is that it will be doing so on the basis of alignment with the EU ... and so there will no competitive advantage to be advertised on those areas — no "Singapore on the Thames". The UK will be remaining closely aligned to the EU, but will have zero say in how the EU decides to ebb.



This deal will get Brexit off to a start, sure, but it's not going to be the clean break, shackles-breaking, burst into freedom that it was originally touted as.  A part of the UK is going to remain in the Customs Union (sure, they've dressed it up to make it sound different, but spade a spade as it were), the UK will commit not to undercut the EU on some major policy areas, and it will remain closely to the EU while having no say in the EU. All of that is going to feed in to the types of trade deals which the UK will be able to do and what it will be able to promise its counterparties.

[Streetwalker]

You paint a very complicated future Gerry with a raft of problems to overcome . The reality though is that the EU has very few free trade deals .All have strings attached  that put them in the trade agreement folder rather than the  free trade deal one . We can do better and be more accommodating to our future partners because we don't have to consider the wants and needs of 27 other nations .



What it costs or indeed what gains we may make is irrelevant . To be governed by those we elected without hindrance by those we don't trumps any trade considerations . They will be what they will be .

You might be somewhat disappointed by today's deal then. The UK has committed to close alignment with the EU on several key economic points, and so the UK will be considering what the 27 EU nations are doing.

Disappointed ? Not really just resigned to what I believed all along in that the Tories would never remove us from the EU in any way like was campaigned for or required by those who voted leave . From the moment the Tories were handed the task of the leave campaign the writing was on the wall that we would reach this point of doing a deal with Brussels that makes Tories  more happy than leavers

[Nick]

 Yes you can, I don't know of any EU rule stopping you from purchasing goods from anywhere. We have trade deals with many countries and continue to expand to include more. But those deals do protect local producers in certain areas and it's not simple. Take for example the new Brazil deal that you seem to know loads about. Under the Hilton Quota Brazil and Argentina can both export 10,000T of beef and 29,000T of prime beef into the EU, removing a 20% tariff. That's how FTA's work, you'll get to know all about this when the UK goes around the globe setting up their own.



 My replywas to your comment about the cost of oranges, it was obvious it was about oranges.



 Ok stop is the wrong word but you could have figured out what I meant. UK product prices in a hard brexit will see tariffs added and will therefore see a price increase. As there are alternative products available at the lower price the UK will see a fall in sales.



 Sound bites ?? In a hard brexit there will be a price increase on EU shelves for UK product. That will be the WTO tariff that the EU sets, nothing the UK can do about that. Unless your UK factory wants to absorb the Tariff increase and cut profits. The I mention shipping delays which again will be present. Legal disputes are a major issue, if there is a dispute can a EU national take the UK company to EU courts or does he need to travel to the UK to do so. If their not happy can the EU national seek redress in EU courts, if not then that will put people off buying expensive UK goods (machinery etc..). These are not sound bites.



 The drivel I would come out with is this. On the surface it looks like Johnson is wheeling out T.May's deal, with one change. That's where NI would vote every 4 yrs to keep NI in the new arrangement where there is a sea border.

I would also say that i looks unlikely that this will get through Parliament. But I hope it does.

I would also say this isn't a future deal but a stop gap, pretty much keeping the UK aligned with the EU while talks on a future trade deal starts. Again I haven't seen the details but does this last for a fixer period ?

An end quote has gone missing there so everything is being quoted Gerry.



What it does do is negates the Benn Act as we have a deal so no extension required.

[GerryT]

You think I can't follow a thread, you said you couldn't buy the product from Brazil, I pointed out that you could. That closes that argument.

I never said trade with Brazil was slave labour, I said their orange production business was like slave labour, how else is it so cheap. Is that what you want, go back to the imperial days where the UK lived off the backs of poor unfortunates ?  https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---declaration/documents/publication/wcms_111297.pdf">https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/publi ... 111297.pdf">https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---declaration/documents/publication/wcms_111297.pdf

Again you fail to have any understanding of international trade, don't you know all countries protect their home food production business from direct competition, Look at WTO tariffs, upwards of 40% on the likes of beef but under 5% for non food tariffs. If there's a hard brexit the UK will do the same, unless it want's to destroy it's home food production.

45% of UK exports go to the EU, the EU has FTA's around the world and the UK exports to those countries. In a hard brexit the UK will go on WTO with the EU and those countries, that's the 75%, I was being generous, it's probably more than 75%.

Now you come out with some great stuff, in a hard brexit can you tell me how the exports to the EU won't stop ?? your product prices increase and there are currently alternatives, why would people pay more, is it the great British superiority products  ::  But seriously if your products increase in price and suffer shipping delays, issues over legal disputes etc... how will that not affect sales ? Now apply that to the rest of the world.



I never said ROI is insulated, I've always said it will be damaging, this brings you great pleasure as you have said, for some bizarre reason. It's you that seem's to think the UK is immune to any harm, you point out the risk to ROI exports to the UK at 12% is damaging yet over 75% of UK exports is no problem what so ever.

Under EU rules we can't just import cheap goods from around the world, if we could what is the point of the block?

Yes you can, I don't know of any EU rule stopping you from purchasing goods from anywhere. We have trade deals with many countries and continue to expand to include more. But those deals do protect local producers in certain areas and it's not simple. Take for example the new Brazil deal that you seem to know loads about. Under the Hilton Quota Brazil and Argentina can both export 10,000T of beef and 29,000T of prime beef into the EU, removing a 20% tariff. That's how FTA's work, you'll get to know all about this when the UK goes around the globe setting up their own.

As for slavery you said "Have a look at the Brazil" you talked about the country, not the Orange growing industry so don't try and manipulate the post.

My replywas to your comment about the cost of oranges, it was obvious it was about oranges.

Your saying our exports to the EU will stop and in the very next sentence you're saying our product prices will go up! Which is Gerry? Prices going up or not allowed to sell, you can't have both. Same as you said months ago that all the ports will be gridlocked, how is this possible if we have no trade.

Ok stop is the wrong word but you could have figured out what I meant. UK product prices in a hard brexit will see tariffs added and will therefore see a price increase. As there are alternative products available at the lower price the UK will see a fall in sales.

You just grab little sound bites and toss them in as facts.

Sound bites ?? In a hard brexit there will be a price increase on EU shelves for UK product. That will be the WTO tariff that the EU sets, nothing the UK can do about that. Unless your UK factory wants to absorb the Tariff increase and cut profits. The I mention shipping delays which again will be present. Legal disputes are a major issue, if there is a dispute can a EU national take the UK company to EU courts or does he need to travel to the UK to do so. If their not happy can the EU national seek redress in EU courts, if not then that will put people off buying expensive UK goods (machinery etc..). These are not sound bites.

So as of today we have a deal, what drivel are you going to come out with about this I wonder?

The drivel I would come out with is this. On the surface it looks like Johnson is wheeling out T.May's deal, with one change. That's where NI would vote every 4 yrs to keep NI in the new arrangement where there is a sea border.

I would also say that i looks unlikely that this will get through Parliament. But I hope it does.

I would also say this isn't a future deal but a stop gap, pretty much keeping the UK aligned with the EU while talks on a future trade deal starts. Again I haven't seen the details but does this last for a fixer period ?

[Nick]

You paint a very complicated future Gerry with a raft of problems to overcome . The reality though is that the EU has very few free trade deals .All have strings attached  that put them in the trade agreement folder rather than the  free trade deal one . We can do better and be more accommodating to our future partners because we don't have to consider the wants and needs of 27 other nations .



What it costs or indeed what gains we may make is irrelevant . To be governed by those we elected without hindrance by those we don't trumps any trade considerations . They will be what they will be .

You might be somewhat disappointed by today's deal then. The UK has committed to close alignment with the EU on several key economic points, and so the UK will be considering what the 27 EU nations are doing.

But the key is we can do our own trade deals and control our borders. Regulatory alignment has never been a big issue.

[Conchúr]

You paint a very complicated future Gerry with a raft of problems to overcome . The reality though is that the EU has very few free trade deals .All have strings attached  that put them in the trade agreement folder rather than the  free trade deal one . We can do better and be more accommodating to our future partners because we don't have to consider the wants and needs of 27 other nations .



What it costs or indeed what gains we may make is irrelevant . To be governed by those we elected without hindrance by those we don't trumps any trade considerations . They will be what they will be .

You might be somewhat disappointed by today's deal then. The UK has committed to close alignment with the EU on several key economic points, and so the UK will be considering what the 27 EU nations are doing.

[Nick]

Are you capable of following the thread of a conversation?



Firstly you describe trade with Brasil as slave labour, now you're cooing at the enormity of the EU's deal with them.



As for buying Oranges from Brasil, at the moment we can't due to the protectionist racket you call the EU. Can't believe you don't understand how they operate. Do you think Spain wants Oranges coming into the block at a 1/10th of the price?



As for 75% risk to UK, just another Gerry special based on absolutely no facts. The UK exports 46% to the EU, that's not going to stop. The other 54% certainly isn't going stop.



You keep on with your mantra that the UK will suffer and S.I is bomb proof.

You think I can't follow a thread, you said you couldn't buy the product from Brazil, I pointed out that you could. That closes that argument.

I never said trade with Brazil was slave labour, I said their orange production business was like slave labour, how else is it so cheap. Is that what you want, go back to the imperial days where the UK lived off the backs of poor unfortunates ?  https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---declaration/documents/publication/wcms_111297.pdf">https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/publi ... 111297.pdf">https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---declaration/documents/publication/wcms_111297.pdf

Again you fail to have any understanding of international trade, don't you know all countries protect their home food production business from direct competition, Look at WTO tariffs, upwards of 40% on the likes of beef but under 5% for non food tariffs. If there's a hard brexit the UK will do the same, unless it want's to destroy it's home food production.

45% of UK exports go to the EU, the EU has FTA's around the world and the UK exports to those countries. In a hard brexit the UK will go on WTO with the EU and those countries, that's the 75%, I was being generous, it's probably more than 75%.

Now you come out with some great stuff, in a hard brexit can you tell me how the exports to the EU won't stop ?? your product prices increase and there are currently alternatives, why would people pay more, is it the great British superiority products  ::  But seriously if your products increase in price and suffer shipping delays, issues over legal disputes etc... how will that not affect sales ? Now apply that to the rest of the world.



I never said ROI is insulated, I've always said it will be damaging, this brings you great pleasure as you have said, for some bizarre reason. It's you that seem's to think the UK is immune to any harm, you point out the risk to ROI exports to the UK at 12% is damaging yet over 75% of UK exports is no problem what so ever.

Under EU rules we can't just import cheap goods from around the world, if we could what is the point of the block?



As for slavery you said "Have a look at the Brazil" you talked about the country, not the Orange growing industry so don't try and manipulate the post.



Your saying our exports to the EU will stop and in the very next sentence you're saying our product prices will go up! Which is Gerry? Prices going up or not allowed to sell, you can't have both. Same as you said months ago that all the ports will be gridlocked, how is this possible if we have no trade.



You just grab little sound bites and toss them in as facts.



So as of today we have a deal, what drivel are you going to come out with about this I wonder?

[GerryT]

What are you talking about. The EU is the largest trade partner for Brazil, they exported 32b worth of goods to the EU. If you want to buy their oranges or other products fire away. The EU is also in talks for a FTA, soon enough there will be tariff free, won't that be great.



There's no debating the infulence England inflicted on countries around the globe, but that's history. Today what has it to offer, It's no longer a major player. you can't rely on the importance of the UK 200 yrs ago when trying to get a trade deal.



No don't ignore the question I'll simplify the maths for you as your struggling to keep up.

IRL has 12% of it's exports at risk but has over 60 FTA's = Suffering

UK has over 75% of it's exports at risk and has no FTA's =

Are you capable of following the thread of a conversation?



Firstly you describe trade with Brasil as slave labour, now you're cooing at the enormity of the EU's deal with them.



As for buying Oranges from Brasil, at the moment we can't due to the protectionist racket you call the EU. Can't believe you don't understand how they operate. Do you think Spain wants Oranges coming into the block at a 1/10th of the price?



As for 75% risk to UK, just another Gerry special based on absolutely no facts. The UK exports 46% to the EU, that's not going to stop. The other 54% certainly isn't going stop.



You keep on with your mantra that the UK will suffer and S.I is bomb proof.

You think I can't follow a thread, you said you couldn't buy the product from Brazil, I pointed out that you could. That closes that argument.

I never said trade with Brazil was slave labour, I said their orange production business was like slave labour, how else is it so cheap. Is that what you want, go back to the imperial days where the UK lived off the backs of poor unfortunates ?  https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---declaration/documents/publication/wcms_111297.pdf">https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/publi ... 111297.pdf">https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_norm/---declaration/documents/publication/wcms_111297.pdf

Again you fail to have any understanding of international trade, don't you know all countries protect their home food production business from direct competition, Look at WTO tariffs, upwards of 40% on the likes of beef but under 5% for non food tariffs. If there's a hard brexit the UK will do the same, unless it want's to destroy it's home food production.

45% of UK exports go to the EU, the EU has FTA's around the world and the UK exports to those countries. In a hard brexit the UK will go on WTO with the EU and those countries, that's the 75%, I was being generous, it's probably more than 75%.

Now you come out with some great stuff, in a hard brexit can you tell me how the exports to the EU won't stop ?? your product prices increase and there are currently alternatives, why would people pay more, is it the great British superiority products  ::  But seriously if your products increase in price and suffer shipping delays, issues over legal disputes etc... how will that not affect sales ? Now apply that to the rest of the world.



I never said ROI is insulated, I've always said it will be damaging, this brings you great pleasure as you have said, for some bizarre reason. It's you that seem's to think the UK is immune to any harm, you point out the risk to ROI exports to the UK at 12% is damaging yet over 75% of UK exports is no problem what so ever.

[GerryT]

You don't get it, you also get far more out of the EU. If there's a hard brexit the UK leaves all the free trade deals and it then looses all it gets from being a member, that's far more that what it puts into the EU.

With time that might change, it depends how long it takes the UK to get new trade deals and will they be as good as what the UK currently has, that's the unknown bit. 50yrs is the best guess, until then whatever the UK "paid" into the EU is far less than the cost of Brexit.



There are over 50 regulatory bodies the UK needs to replicate post a hard brexit. How much to you think that's going to cost. The additional customs, civil servants etc... Has anyone worked out these costs of Brexit

You paint a very complicated future Gerry with a raft of problems to overcome . The reality though is that the EU has very few free trade deals .All have strings attached  that put them in the trade agreement folder rather than the  free trade deal one . We can do better and be more accommodating to our future partners because we don't have to consider the wants and needs of 27 other nations .



What it costs or indeed what gains we may make is irrelevant . To be governed by those we elected without hindrance by those we don't trumps any trade considerations . They will be what they will be .

I would disagree to a point, FTA's are exactly that, tariff barriers removed but the deal will have strings attached. I don't think any FTA is completely open. Usually there are quotas applied, certain restrictions and conditions. To me that is a FTA.

I also can't see how the UK will get a better deal than the EU, in any trade negotiation it's what you have to offer, the EU has a 18T market, the UK a 2.8T market. If your looking for a country to give you a better deal that's hard to get by offering less to them. Yes the EU might have greater restrictions because there's 27 countries to consider and there could well be restrictions but, even saying that the market that's opened to 3rd countries is still massive.

But I do agree that if the decision is to leave and take what comes, based on the ability to make decisions solely for the UK then that's fine.  Initially there will be a raft of problems but with time they will be all overcome. You do elect those in the EU though, that's another miss-truth, Parliament and Council and your PM nominates your commissioner, but I think I get the issue the UK has, it only elects 1/28th of the EU and has to share decision making with 28 other countries with their elected officials and this is the real crux of the EU "problem". The UK just doesn't do shared decision making.