Merkel - 'health experts estimate up to 70% of the population infected'

[patman post]

I am NOT in the slightest bit interested in that.

I am interested in the mortality rates for those who end up in hospital with it.

As an interested layperson I'd suggest that as the most serious cases end up in hospital, their mortality rate is probably higher than those who are infected but remain outside hospital.

We might learn differently when full figures are presented, but I doubt it...

[papasmurf]

You're becoming tedious.  Now tell me about those who did not end up in hospital.  How many?  A million?  10 million?

I am NOT in the slightest bit interested in that.

I am interested in the mortality rates for those who end up in hospital with it.

[Scott777]

I am not ignoring facts, I am referencing actuarial data of those who ended up in hospital with covid-19.

You're becoming tedious.  Now tell me about those who did not end up in hospital.  How many?  A million?  10 million?

[papasmurf]

I've got an idea, Mr Smurf.  How about you ignore the facts,

I am not ignoring facts, I am referencing actuarial data of those who ended up in hospital with covid-19.



More data from the government:-



https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public">https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... the-public">https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public



Number of cases

As of 9am on 30 March 2020, a total of 134,946 people have been tested, of which 112,805 were confirmed negative and 22,141 were confirmed positive.



As of 5pm on 29 March 2020, 1,408 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.



The figures for test results and for deaths are compiled from different sources. This is why the figures for deaths are reported from an earlier point in time than the figures for test results.

[Scott777]

I don't give a monkeys about his assessment because it has eff all to do with the actuarial morbidity data for  people who ended up in hospital with Covid-19.

I've got an idea, Mr Smurf.  How about you ignore the facts, ignore what he is saying, keep on with your data which basically assesses what happens when very ill people get Covid-19 instead of looking at the whole data, carry on scaremongering, and if you're lucky, we will be locked down for 6 months, the NHS will be anihilated, people will lose their jobs, suffer anxiety, depression, become alcoholics, take heroin, commit suicide.  Will you be happy then?

[papasmurf]

Dr Steve Jenkins, with a realistic assessment:

I don't give a monkeys about his assessment because it has eff all to do with the actuarial morbidity data for  people who ended up in hospital with Covid-19.

[Scott777]

Dr Steve Jenkins, with a realistic assessment:

[papasmurf]

It is the actuarial data from hospital admissions.

In my case if I get hospitalised with Covid-19 i have a 7.8% chance of carking it.



Very detailed data in table one at link.



http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51">http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id ... a8db1a8f51">http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51



Deaths, Case Fatality Rates, and Mortality

As shown in Table 1, a total of 1,023 deaths have occurred among 44,672 confirmed cases for an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. Additionally, these 1,023 deaths occurred during 661,609 PD of observed time, for a mortality rate of 0.015/10 PD.



The ≥80 age group had the highest case fatality rate of all age groups at 14.8%. Case fatality rate for males was 2.8% and for females was 1.7%. By occupation, patients who reported being retirees had the highest case fatality rate at 5.1%, and patients in Hubei Province had a >7-fold higher case fatality rate at 2.9% compared to patients in other provinces (0.4%). While patients who reported no comorbid conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%, patients with comorbid conditions had much higher rates—10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6.0% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. Case fatality rate was also very high for cases categorized as critical at 49.0%.

[papasmurf]

You cannot just go around making claims, striking fear into people, then show a graph which has no explanation of the figures or how the data was derived.  Well, ok, you can, but it's very irresponsible.

It is the actuarial data from hospital admissions.

[Scott777]

It isn't "fear mongering nonsense" it is based on actuarial data thus far, of those hospitalised with it depending on age



https://i.insider.com/5e67b19a54f25c32e320ef33?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp">https://i.insider.com/5e67b19a54f25c32e ... &auto=webp">https://i.insider.com/5e67b19a54f25c32e320ef33?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp

You cannot just go around making claims, striking fear into people, then show a graph which has no explanation of the figures or how the data was derived.  Well, ok, you can, but it's very irresponsible.

[Barry]

This debate reminds me of the Brexit discussions, now consigned to history.

The "we won't notice much difference" versus "we are all going to starve to death" when the real truth might lie somewhere in between.

The pessimists seem to be the same people.

[papasmurf]

Stop spreading this fearmonger nonsense.  What are the facts?  Where have your figures come from?

It isn't "fear mongering nonsense" it is based on actuarial data thus far, of those hospitalised with it depending on age



https://i.insider.com/5e67b19a54f25c32e320ef33?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp">https://i.insider.com/5e67b19a54f25c32e ... &auto=webp">https://i.insider.com/5e67b19a54f25c32e320ef33?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp

[Scott777]

"Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London whose modeling has influenced UK government policy, told BBC Radio on Monday that he believes "the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now."



So now, even Imperial College is falling in line towards to Oxford Uni study.

[Scott777]

Young people. For people like me who have just received two you are going to die letters it is 15%.

Stop spreading this fearmonger nonsense.  What are the facts?  Where have your figures come from?

[Scott777]

"Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic. The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms," Thorolfur Guðnason, Iceland's chief epidemiologist.



To be precise, 2 out of 890 positive cases have died.  We must also account for people who had it and recovered.  Let's be conservative and guess that's another 300, but of course,the sky's the limit.  2 out of 1200 is 0.16%.