Nightingale hospitals badly thought through publicity stunt....Peston.

Started by Thomas, April 17, 2020, 03:26:44 PM

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patman post

If those ideas turn out to be true — what's the problem?

As for not calling active hospitals "hospitals" because they may have a future use, what's the point?

Round here, a couple of undertakers collect the deceased in vehicles marked "Private Ambulance". Seems a sensitivity that does no harm...
On climate change — we're talking, we're beginning to act, but we're still not doing enough...

Sampanviking

Given that the greatest driving factor in this crisis is actually bureaucratic rather than merely health, I wonder if the authorities always had another eye on the purpose of these Nightingale Hospitals.



In short I wonder if these will turn out to be large Mortuaries, where bodies can be stored while the bureaucratic back log of properly assigning cause of death and registering of death certificates can be carried out.

Interestingly, this seem to be the area of most concern in the whole process and the existing hospital system, seemingly possessing all the capacity to deal with the peak demand.



I also suspect that the powers that be, knew exactly where the weaknesses, shortfalls and bottlenecks would occur and have planned accordingly.



It may sound like pedantic semantics, but the title "Emergency Hospital" carries better than "Emergency Morgue"!

Thomas

Quote from: Javert post_id=21849 time=1587316101 user_id=64
The antigen test for Covid-19 does work, but it's reliability is not 100%.




I agree javert , but thats not because as scott suggests all the test might not work or are faulty. (outiwth what we discussed in 7 states from certain manufacturers)



The reliability depends on quality of sample and how far the patient is in recovery stage.



QuoteAntigen (nucleic acid testing) Nucleic acid testing makes use of a biochemical process, the polymerase chain reaction, a powerful and highly sensitive method for the amplification and subsequent detection of very small amounts of genetic information - in this case RNA from just a few SARS-Cov-2 viral particles.



Although highly sensitive and specific, the technology is reliant on the quality of the sample.



Once initiated, testing can take a matter of hours to complete and is safe and robust. The technology lends itself to high-end automation, allowing the processing of large numbers of samples with minimal handling by a technician.



Nucleic acid testing can only identify patients with active infection. Individuals within the recovery period of COVID-19 illness might not have detectable virus and will test negative.
[/b]



https://www.abpi.org.uk/medicine-discovery/covid-19/what-is-the-life-sciences-sector-doing-to-help-increase-covid-19-testing/">https://www.abpi.org.uk/medicine-discov ... 9-testing/">https://www.abpi.org.uk/medicine-discovery/covid-19/what-is-the-life-sciences-sector-doing-to-help-increase-covid-19-testing/
An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t-Saoghail!

Javert

The antigen test for Covid-19 does work, but it's reliability is not 100%.



All medical tests of this type have some kind of error rate.  Typically, tests would only be accepted by health organisations depending on the specific purpose for the testing, and the minimum tolerances.



Also typically, these tests will have a higher false negative rate than false positive rate.  Medical tests like this might typically carry an average 90-95% success rate on detecting people who don't have the disease (i.e. 5-10% false negatives), and a 99% or more rate on detecting people who do have the disease (i.e. 1% or less false positives).  



This depends also on the specific pathology of the disease we are talking about.  In the case of Covid-19, if the test is administered later on in the course of the disease (after the 6th day or so), the false negative rate will be significantly higher, because there will be less virus in the throat and nose of the person.  Some doctors have claimed that it's a 75% or less success rate in testing for Covid-19 in patients who are later on in the path of the disease i.e. they keep testing negative even though they are presenting in every other way as a Covid-19 patient, and are also testing negative for other diseases with similar pathology.



So the test does work, but it doesn't work 100% of the time.  That does not by any means indicate that the test is "qualitative" in the layman's sense where it's a matter of opinion.  At the end of the test, a liquid will change colour based on the result of positive or negative, so unless you are colourblind, the result is clear, but in same small % of cases it may be wrong.



In the case of Covid-19, the main sources of problems in the test result are:

1) The person was tested later on in the disease after they already didn't have enough viral load in their nose and throat to trigger a positive test result.

2) Incorrect administration of the test or incorrect equipment used (the test requires the swab to be shoved right up into the person's nose and throat until they are literally gagging) and there is a specific technique to it.  Depending on point 1 above, it might be necessary to hit just the right spot in the nose or throat to get a good enough sample and there might be some randomness to that in the case or marginal infections.

3) Lab mistakes.

4) Degradation of the samples during transport (given that the UK has chosen to have central testing labs rather than testing on site).

5) Admin mistakes.



Bottom line - hospital respiratory consultant has told me personally and very clearly that the test carries quite a high false negative rate in patients who've come into hospital after already being sick for a week or more, and even when tested a second time, it's likely to still be negative.



For these reasons, this testing gives a good indication of what's going on, but it should not be used to make individual judgements about whether someone is safe to work or not, unless those people are repeatedly tested on a regular basis.



It's the same with the antibody test - it's going to be very good for getting mass data across the population, but unless it's incredibly accurate (more so than most other tests of this type), it might be dangerous to use it to make individual decisions like saying "you personally tested positive for antibodies therefore you can ignore all lockdown rules for the next year".



From a conspiracy theory point of view (and even often in the so called mainstream media), it's a good technique to cherry pick technical words or phrases from scientific reports and then take them out of context to try to claim the opposite of the truth, but it's not proper science.

Thomas

I will elaborate further for your benefit scott. I did say you were getting totally confused on this issue of "tests" not working earlier on this thread.



The concern about "tests" has been the accuracy of antibody testing in test 2 that i mentioned( still in research stage) to assess who has developed immunity.



Test 1 ( testing for current  presence of virus) has been the basis for successfull strategies in south korea and new zealand of locking down testing and contact tracing which the uk government abandoned and have come under much criticism for. Apart from a small number of tests in 7 countries by a few manufacturers ( to test for virus presence currently) the vast majority of these tests DO actually work unlike what you insinuated.
An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t-Saoghail!

Thomas

Quote from: Scott777 post_id=21816 time=1587306711 user_id=59:lol: nope.


You did.


Quote from: Scott777 post_id=21701 time=1587223043 user_id=59
 The testing may be almost as faulty as the current guidelines.


Quote from: Scott777 post_id=21704 time=1587223767 user_id=59




 a debate on whether the methods are sound.



Quote from: Scott777 post_id=21708 time=1587225468 user_id=59
  Firstly, these tests that "do actually work" may not actually work.  






Its all through the thread , vague insinuations that testing doesnt work , to which i responded..


Quote from: Thomas post_id=21705 time=1587224317 user_id=58
Hang on you are conflating different things. There are testing kits available that do acutally work. So the uk government could have mass tested.






Quote
Different types of tests for COVID-19



There are two kinds of tests for COVID-19:



those that test for the presence of the virus, aiming to establish whether an individual is currently infected;



(An accurate mortality rate of the disease and the level of herd immunity in the population can be determined from the results of this test.)





those that test for the presence of antibodies, aiming to establish whether an individual has been infected at some point in the past.



The testing data we present below relates to the former kind of test. The most common way of performing a test of this type is with a 'PCR' test. Here you can find a video that explains how this kind of test works.



The second kind of test – serological tests – are generally still in the research stage of development. This kind of test will be central to establishing how far the coronavirus has spread across the broader population. The Centre for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University provide up to date information on serology tests that are in development or available for use – whether for diagnosis, or only for research purposes.A helpful summary of the current state of testing technologies and their implementation – as of 8 April – can be found in this editorial published in Nature Biomedical Engineering.
[/b]



Lets be clear. Your inferrence that tests dont work were a vague generalisation broken down  in 7 different countries , one of which was the yookay , where they had limited amounts of problems with certain manufacturers with a small amount of testing kits. I quoted on the uk issue earlier.



Your insinuation is none of them work , or may not work , which you havent proved.
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Nalaar

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Don't believe everything you think.

Scott777

Quote from: Thomas post_id=21822 time=1587307325 user_id=58
 you are resorting to either getting the thread closed down now or posts deleted to save face.


It was on page 7 that you began the ad hominem attacks, because your pram wasn't being pushed how you like it.



https://postimg.cc/cgznsf0F">
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.

Thomas

i see now scott. Now you have been shown up for the conspiracy theorist you are , and i have shown your "insinuation " test dont work and methods are wrong is nonsense , you are resorting to either getting the thread closed down now or posts deleted to save face.



All too predictable.



I ask again ( in a reasonable manner) do you now agree you were wrong and there is actually a working test that is being used to determine wether someone has covid 19 , many countries are using it , and that the other test is an anti body test still in its reserch  stage?



Or do you just want to trade insults to get the thread closed or deleted?
An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t-Saoghail!

Scott777

Quote from: Thomas post_id=21753 time=1587289490 user_id=58
https://media1.giphy.com/media/hmHDhRmnHJkOI/giphy.webp?cid=ecf05e479c7446e6174b2e3e2297598fbadaf20ab12bf530&rid=giphy.webp">

Did you ask permission from your mum before using this forum?

https://postimg.cc/68Pc7xH6">
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.

Thomas

Quote from: Scott777 post_id=21815 time=1587306631 user_id=59
Do you have any more ad hominem attacks you want to throw in before you pretend to have a debate?  Can you please take that lollipop out of your mouth before we start?  And take off the dunce cap.


Quite obviously you cant debate with moonhowling conspiracy nuts.



https://media.giphy.com/media/2rFFoZpkvkrFm/giphy.gif">
An Fhirinn an aghaidh an t-Saoghail!

Scott777

Quote from: Thomas post_id=21814 time=1587306570 user_id=58
...but ...but you "insinuated" that covid 19 tests "dont work. "


 :lol: nope.
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.

Scott777

Quote from: Thomas post_id=21809 time=1587306051 user_id=58
Have you anything further to add to the debate , or are you just going to keep throwing in empty one liners to try and save face? :roll:


Do you have any more ad hominem attacks you want to throw in before you pretend to have a debate?  Can you please take that lollipop out of your mouth before we start?  And take off the dunce cap.
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.

Thomas

Quote from: Scott777 post_id=21813 time=1587306402 user_id=59
"COVID-19 testing can identify the SARS-CoV-2 virus..."



"An accurate mortality rate of the disease and the level of herd immunity in the population can be determined from the results of this test."



BRILLIANT.  Thank you so so much for telling me that Covid-19 testing can be used to test stuff.  What a genius.  Don't worry about WHICH test, or how the test is done.  Here's some more genius stuff - alien testing can be used to test for aliens.  Right now, a positive is coming up in your direction.


...but ...but you "insinuated" that covid 19 tests "dont work. "



After being dragged kicking and screaming to explain what you meant ,you post two ridiculous links which dont mention anyhwere that testing doesnt work.



Thats merely your invented hyperbole.



Im lost now scott. Is it the 5 g masts which are causing covid 19 , or is it the shadowy corporations that has invented it? :roll:  :lol:
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Scott777

Quote from: Thomas post_id=21782 time=1587297674 user_id=58
Now im not a scientist nor a medical expert , but ive read both those links twice over and see not one sign of any link to

 testing for covid 19 which shows it to be unreliable.



.



it says here about the tests accuracy....









https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing



So what are you actually talking about ?







https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing">https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing



Are you now suggesting we have went from your argument being covid 19 doesnt exist , to covid 19 is being caused by 5g masts , to now saying covid 19 tests dont work or are unreliable so much so that every country in the world that is using them to test is being duped by shadowy corporations intent on destroying the world.?





https://media1.giphy.com/media/j52HHY43g8BQhasWey/200.webp?cid=ecf05e4766aaa0a1ef39807ee562ff3e7c25a47e56fbe835&rid=200.webp">


"COVID-19 testing can identify the SARS-CoV-2 virus..."



"An accurate mortality rate of the disease and the level of herd immunity in the population can be determined from the results of this test."



BRILLIANT.  Thank you so so much for telling me that Covid-19 testing can be used to test stuff.  What a genius.  Don't worry about WHICH test, or how the test is done.  Here's some more genius stuff - alien testing can be used to test for aliens.  Right now, a positive is coming up in your direction.
Those princes who have done great things have held good faith of little account, and have known how to craftily circumvent the intellect of men.  Niccolò Machiavelli.