Lockdown saved no lives and may have cost them, Nobel

[B0ycey]

But for the Corbynistas and those leftard of even their ultra Marxism, this a wonderful experiment Testing just how far standard and poor's can be pushed before they declare even the UK, which can be counted on to sell its great grandchildren into slavery to appease bankers and has done for centuries, to be a junk bond state.

you don't need to burn your house down in order to move!



Indeed.



Corbynism is a movement split by age demographic. You don't need to destroy society to make change. You just need to stand up and be counted. And the youth are beinging - admittedly slowly to stand up. So time will bring social change. So why test how strong the poors resolve is into hardship?



I have no doubt hardship will move things forward. But it doesn't have to instant. And the wealth divide has already shown its cracks. And now it is time for people to vote on those cracks.

[johnofgwent]

All Heil the pyrrhic victory!



This has just begun and you say we have saved lives? You don't know how many lives will have been lost by the economic damage in the future. Nor do you know what impact there is if we have a second wave. Lockdowns are not sustainable so unless you plan on locking us up till a vaccine, at some point all nations will have to mitigate the risk and it is up to you to look after your own safety.

But for the Corbynistas and those leftard of even their ultra Marxism, this a wonderful experiment Testing just how far standard and poor's can be pushed before they declare even the UK, which can be counted on to sell its great grandchildren into slavery to appease bankers and has done for centuries, to be a junk bond state.

[B0ycey]

Damage to the economy is a price worth paying to save lives.

All Heil the pyrrhic victory!



This has just begun and you say we have saved lives? You don't know how many lives will have been lost by the economic damage in the future. Nor do you know what impact there is if we have a second wave. Lockdowns are not sustainable so unless you plan on locking us up till a vaccine, at some point all nations will have to mitigate the risk and it is up to you to look after your own safety.

[Thomas]

Damage to the economy is a price worth paying to save lives.

Thats easy for you to say if you are retired , sitting on a pension and steady income , with no real difference to your financial postion. Unfortunately millions arent in that position.



Its about self interest quackers .



People will do what they have to do.



I broadly agree to a certain extent to your highlighted quote , but what you also dont mention is there is a tipping point , and that tipping point has been reached.



Sure both the uk , and to a lesser degree scottish govs have made mistakes on the health side of covid 19. I cant fault either on the financial side.



Slight damage to the economy is a price worth paying to save lives , but severe damage to the point of oblivion? Dont agree.



As i said , its easier to carp from the sidelines if you are sitting financially secure. Many elderly folk i know have told me things are lttle different from normal for them except restrictions in travel.



The governments have to look at the wider picture , not just from one point of view.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Lockdown must have saved lives.



The graphs for most countries that introduced lockdown show a flattening of the curve after a couple of weeks or so followed by a steady decline in new cases.



Iran introduced lockdown and the the graph flattened and then started to go down. Then it lifted lockdown and the numbers started to go up and now they're almost as high as before their lockdown.



Brazil's government has not introduced any social measures and their numbers are increasing alarmingly and now they're getting as many new cases per day as the USA did at its peak.



There are now over 20 countries or territories that have had outbreaks of covid-19 but are now clear of cases. Most of these places are small and isolated and only had a few cases but this shows that it is possible to eradicate the disease. Today New Zealand is close to being in that category, with only one active case left. There have been a few places that were in the clear but have had new cases.



Damage to the economy is a price worth paying to save lives.

[BeElBeeBub]

Wasn't this the guy who, back in march, was saying the virus was going to go away soon.



His "claim to fame" is he claims to have predicted the case/deaths of China accurately (80k & 3250 dead).



The obvious flaw being China took very extreme measures and ended up at that figure so he seem to be arguing he correctly predicted falling out of an aeroplane isn't fatal so we don't need to use a parachute and pointing to somebody floating down with a parachute as proof.  



So far there is no evidence of lockdown causing excess deaths in the under 45's (in fact fewer young men at dying than normal). There is some evidence of excess deaths in the over 45 group, probably due to people not seeking or recieving timely medical assistance.  Of course the counter factual is would they have sought/received timely medical assistance if CV cases were flooding the NHS at an even greater rate than we saw.



His primary gripe seems to be that exponential growth isn't realistic as you quickly "saturate" your "contact bubble".  That doesn't allow for the multitude of links between contact bubbles.  



Remember the old "7 degrees of Kevin Bacon" game?



The R0 number takes this into account as an average across the population, in reality it's lots of people who don't spread or only spread to 1 or two others and then a few "super spreader" cases who spread to a dozen or so.



Anyway, we will be able to see if he's correct. If he is there will be no second wave as the virus burns out.



He predicted the total death toll will be about 1 month's deaths (about 50k for the UK) Vs the consensus calculations that it will be be up to 1 years extra deaths.



The UK is currently at or near the one month's extra deaths.



Lockdown is unofficially over. So we will wait and see if the cases and deaths start to rise or continue their slow decay.  



We should keep.our fingers crossed for the latter and prepare for the former (just in case that guy is wrong)

[Borg Refinery]

Very intelligent bloke clearly, but he's a hypocrite mate.



"Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. "



https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-nobel-laureate-coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145/amp">https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.co ... 621145/amp">https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-nobel-laureate-coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145/amp



Israel instituted some of the most intrusive measures in the world, incl getting Mossad to spy on people with satellites according to Haaretz. They were very harsh on arresting quarantine breakers.



I accept that scientists have to go where the evidence takes them, even if unpopular, and shift opinions, but that tele article is closed off to me, can only read a snippet.

[B0ycey]

Sounds about right. It will be interesting to see how the pro-lockdowners justify the over reaction when we live in the depression and can't afford a pot to piss in.

[Borchester]

Prize winner believes



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/lockdown-saved-no-lives-may-have-cost-nobel-prize-winner-believes/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr">//https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/lockdown-saved-no-lives-may-have-cost-nobel-prize-winner-believes/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr%20%20