How will it all be paid for...?

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

The time to worry about the economy is when covid-19 has been eliminated, hopefully - or at least brought down to a level no higher than other nasty infectious diseases that the nation is used to coping with.



Writing off a proportion of debt and / or extending loan periods look like a good idea.

[Streetwalker]

I don't think there will be any rush to pay back what the corona has cost . The country will need to get back to some sort of normal seeing growth in the economy before its payback time .

[DeppityDawg]

My tip (if you're on computer) is to write in notepad or word then cut and paste



Also, have you ticked then keep me.logged in" box when you log in?

That's beyond us poorly educated, analogue idiots who don't understand maths, I'm afraid  ::

[BeElBeeBub]

Feck sake. Yet again I've just lost an entire fecking post which I spent ages writing. Whats wrong with this fecking forum keep logging you out?

My tip (if you're on computer) is to write in notepad or word then cut and paste



Also, have you ticked then keep me.logged in" box when you log in?

[DeppityDawg]

Feck sake. Yet again I've just lost an entire fecking post which I spent ages writing. Whats wrong with this fecking forum keep logging you out?

[BeElBeeBub]

No-one knows yet what will be required for our recovery but I suspect once they see the end then things will be ramped up to suit. We have the departure from the EU to deal with too, it's going to take some creative thinking and steady nerves if we can find any.

we'll there certainly is some creativity in the current government, if only in the context of how to justify sweeping a clear breach of the regulations by the PM's SPAD under the carpet.



(and DD says I'm humourless....)

[BeElBeeBub]

I think I've made my position on lockdown clear several times. I distrust the models, I distrust the individuals, and I remain unconvinced that total lockdown (eg, altering course wildly at the last minute) was the right thing to do. There are other scientists/experts, call them what you will, who have question or out right challenged Fergusons "model",

Just to be clear - putting aside the questions around economics, you are not convinced that locking down has had any positive effect on the death toll?



I understand the questions around the balance between people's health and the economy, individual freedom etc



But I want to understand what you think of the science behind "how to stop an infectious disease with an IFR of around 1%"



Do you subscribe to some of the theories that the virus will mutate into a less dangerous form naturally or maybe that large parts of the population are already immune?



Or maybe you favour the other end of the spectrum, that the virus is here to stay, there will never be a cure so we just need to get the painful process of the unlucky 1% dying out of the way? ("take it on the chin")



as an aside, i think the "alter course wildly at the last minute" was poor, not because I think it was the wrong course (I will give credit for a government changing course in the face of overwhelming evidence) because we should never have been on the original course to begin with.  



It's important to note the evidence didn't change - the predictions about death rates and advice were consistent before the sudden change.

and he has hardly covered himself in glory either.

in what way does where he decides to put his genitals influence the underlying accuracy of the model?

I'm reserving judgement, and we will all see in due course if lockdown/closing the economy was the correct course, or the action of a panicked government reacting to public pressure/doing what other governments were doing. My feeling is however, the same as it was 8 weeks ago, and that lockdown has been an utterly insane act of self harm.

would you concede that if the imperial model was accurate, i.e. we hadn't locked down and the deaths had carried on climbing past 1k per day to peak above 10k a day leaving 500k dead in around 3 months, that would have been an "utterly insane act of self harm" and would have caused enormous economic and social damage?

[DeppityDawg]

can I ask:



A lot of the anti lockdown sentiment uses a variation of "the economy suffers = bad for people" argument (which I don't disagree with).



For a moment, completely forget the economic arguments and focus solely on which measures are best to reduce the deaths from CV. Would you agree or disagree that, given our current situation (no vaccine, limited treatment, limited testing etc) the lockdown is the best way to limit the damage (again putting aside economic considerations)

I think I've made my position on lockdown clear several times. I distrust the models, I distrust the individuals, and I remain unconvinced that total lockdown (eg, altering course wildly at the last minute) was the right thing to do. There are other scientists/experts, call them what you will, who have question or out right challenged Fergusons "model", and he has hardly covered himself in glory either.



I'm reserving judgement, and we will all see in due course if lockdown/closing the economy was the correct course, or the action of a panicked government reacting to public pressure/doing what other governments were doing. My feeling is however, the same as it was 8 weeks ago, and that lockdown has been an utterly insane act of self harm.

I know we have had out disagreements over the lockdown,

And first prize in "understatement of the year" award goes to...................BeelBeeb!!!!  ::  ::  ::

[Borg Refinery]

All of the are probable.



Personally, I'd like a serious look at restructuring things a bit more.



As you pointed out in some of your prev posts this lockdown has hit the poorest very hard.  In addition both the UK and (in particular) the US saw problems with their lockdown measures caused by economic disincentives to do the "right thing" and self isolate - namely zero hours work and lack of sick pay. Care home staff in particular were caught by this to this.



INTERLUDE



I know we have had out disagreements over the lockdown, can I ask:



A lot of the anti lockdown sentiment uses a variation of "the economy suffers = bad for people" argument (which I don't disagree with).



For a moment, completely forget the economic arguments and focus solely on which measures are best to reduce the deaths from CV. Would you agree or disagree that, given our current situation (no vaccine, limited treatment, limited testing etc) the lockdown is the best way to limit the damage (again putting aside economic considerations)



If not, what other method could be used?



INTERLUDE



Working on the idea that we have dodged a bullet with CV (imagine an IFR of 10% or an R 15) we need to be ready for the next (potentially worse) one.



If our societal and economic structure struggles to cope with the measure we may need to take again I would say that is a failure



With that in mind, I'd like to see some big changes in both how we work (a lot more home working) and how we distribute wealth and support.



I'd like a basic income to be explored. If people having to stop work for a while because they need to self isolate isn't a problem it may make it alot easier to slow/halt the next pandemic.ofncourse the economics of UBI systems are hotly contested.......but seeing as we have apparently found a magic money tree we should have a look what we can do with it.

 :thup:

[T00ts]

Currently the interest rates on government bonds are negative.  People are literally paying the government to borrow their money. We probably need to factor that into our thoughts on long term borrowing.

No-one knows yet what will be required for our recovery but I suspect once they see the end then things will be ramped up to suit. We have the departure from the EU to deal with too, it's going to take some creative thinking and steady nerves if we can find any.

[BeElBeeBub]

I would imagine that the Conservative party as opposed to the Government is only too aware that they will not be able to take the usual routes to repayment. This will be long term borrowing. I haven't heard of Government bonds yet but it will be treated like the War debt which I believe we have just recently cleared.



There is too much panic over this by those who just want to ramp up the fear factor. I don't agree that the NHS is a sacred cow. The front line staff yes, they don't deserve the usual treatment,  but something radical needs to be done about it.



It's as if the Government planned the virus. They have made mistakes but once again we are where we are. They need now to get small businesses working, the big ones will use the virus excuse to downsize for profit margins. I was interested to see comments on those companies who have furloughed staff not being allowed to pay dividends and limits on top levels of pay to execs. We'll see.

Currently the interest rates on government bonds are negative.  People are literally paying the government to borrow their money. We probably need to factor that into our thoughts on long term borrowing.

[BeElBeeBub]

So, having managed to get a debate of sorts over the downside of lockdown, some ideas to pay for all this



1) Local authority spending - I can see that in order to fund increasing care costs, the government are going to have to abandon any attempt to reign in local authority council tax rises - we could see rises in double digits percentages, bringing some peoples CT bill above their mortgage or rent costs

2) Income tax? 25% base rate? No or small increases in personal allowances

3) VAT - 25% with less exemptions?

4) Pension upper tax relief rate abolished

5) THE TRIPLE LOCK ON STATE PENSION WILL BE SCRAPPED - certain, I'd bet strongly on it.

6) Free bus passes scrapped or curtailed

7) Indirect taxes, eg fuel, beer, cigarettes etc, all to rise significantly



More controversially.

Reverse means testing for automatic entitlements like State Pension - eg, if you have private wealth/income over a certain amount, you'll receive the State Pension at a reduced or zero rate



Thoughts or any other targets, just in case the magic money tree fails?

All of the are probable.



Personally, I'd like a serious look at restructuring things a bit more.



As you pointed out in some of your prev posts this lockdown has hit the poorest very hard.  In addition both the UK and (in particular) the US saw problems with their lockdown measures caused by economic disincentives to do the "right thing" and self isolate - namely zero hours work and lack of sick pay. Care home staff in particular were caught by this to this.



INTERLUDE



I know we have had out disagreements over the lockdown, can I ask:



A lot of the anti lockdown sentiment uses a variation of "the economy suffers = bad for people" argument (which I don't disagree with).



For a moment, completely forget the economic arguments and focus solely on which measures are best to reduce the deaths from CV. Would you agree or disagree that, given our current situation (no vaccine, limited treatment, limited testing etc) the lockdown is the best way to limit the damage (again putting aside economic considerations)



If not, what other method could be used?



INTERLUDE



Working on the idea that we have dodged a bullet with CV (imagine an IFR of 10% or an R 15) we need to be ready for the next (potentially worse) one.



If our societal and economic structure struggles to cope with the measure we may need to take again I would say that is a failure



With that in mind, I'd like to see some big changes in both how we work (a lot more home working) and how we distribute wealth and support.



I'd like a basic income to be explored. If people having to stop work for a while because they need to self isolate isn't a problem it may make it alot easier to slow/halt the next pandemic.ofncourse the economics of UBI systems are hotly contested.......but seeing as we have apparently found a magic money tree we should have a look what we can do with it.

[T00ts]

I would imagine that the Conservative party as opposed to the Government is only too aware that they will not be able to take the usual routes to repayment. This will be long term borrowing. I haven't heard of Government bonds yet but it will be treated like the War debt which I believe we have just recently cleared.



There is too much panic over this by those who just want to ramp up the fear factor. I don't agree that the NHS is a sacred cow. The front line staff yes, they don't deserve the usual treatment,  but something radical needs to be done about it.



It's as if the Government planned the virus. They have made mistakes but once again we are where we are. They need now to get small businesses working, the big ones will use the virus excuse to downsize for profit margins. I was interested to see comments on those companies who have furloughed staff not being allowed to pay dividends and limits on top levels of pay to execs. We'll see.

[Borg Refinery]

..What a moronic whinging tw@ chunt



Boris is, he hasn't got a clue how he's going to pay for anything.



I agree Deppity, it's odd how they suddenly found a magic money try out of nowhere.



I suggest the mutual debt cancellation thing and reforming HMRC to collect tax that gets avoided but eh.



Not suggesting Corbyn would have done better, but who knows

[B0ycey]

It will be income and corporation tax. If anything VAT will reduce to increase spending. And all goodies will go. Oh and duty. That's a shoe in. And perhaps cuts in the military. Basically everything that balances the books that doesn't harm the NHS which is now untouchable.