Coronavirus infection rate is still too high

[Borchester]

My hope is that those out and about and appearing to be taking risk do so safe in the certainty that they have already had it quietly at home.

Not much chance of that Toots. We Peking Pox Deniers are too self centred to act responsibly.



Last night I came back from my allotment with a friend. She is nearly blind and only one of my legs works properly. And I had just spent the afternoon mowing some very dry grass. So we stumbled onto the bus coughing and spluttering and sneezing and suddenly we are in the front and everyone else was cowering in the back. I was about to point out that it was old age and hayfever that was causing the fuss and not the Chinese Cold, but then I thought sod it, let us just enjoy the show.  

[Borchester]

Maybe they should put you on the daily press conference then.  Don't forget to bring your powerpoint slide with your graphs on it.

I was rather thinking of having one of those Stay Calm And Carry On posters. You could stand underneath piddling down your leg in fear of something or other and everyone else could take photos.  

[Javert]

I am not assuming Jack sh*t Jankers. As I pointed out, most of the data that we have on this bug is crap and the rest is worse. From the very limited information available I reckon that this foolishness will settle down by the end of June, but I can't be certain.The only thing I can be certain of is that whatever happens you will find something else to worry on.  

Maybe they should put you on the daily press conference then.  Don't forget to bring your powerpoint slide with your graphs on it.

[T00ts]

I am not assuming Jack sh*t Jankers. As I pointed out, most of the data that we have on this bug is crap and the rest is worse. From the very limited information available I reckon that this foolishness will settle down by the end of June, but I can't be certain.The only thing I can be certain of is that whatever happens you will find something else to worry on.  

My hope is that those out and about and appearing to be taking risk do so safe in the certainty that they have already had it quietly at home.

[Borchester]

What is your data assumption that means that the cases won't start going up again?



Are you assuming that a lot higher percentage of the global population have already had this than what we thought?



Are you assuming that it's less infectious than scientists claim (and if so how do you explain that we are still having 8000 cases every day)?



If not what are you assuming?  Maybe that since you seem to think this is just like the flu, we will continue to get hundreds of deaths per day from it but it won't be newsworthy any more?

I am not assuming Jack shit Jankers. As I pointed out, most of the data that we have on this bug is crap and the rest is worse. From the very limited information available I reckon that this foolishness will settle down by the end of June, but I can't be certain.The only thing I can be certain of is that whatever happens you will find something else to worry on.  

[Javert]

Maybe Javert, but probably not.



As far as I can see the only scientific certainty we have is that most of our data is crap and the rest is pretty suss.



I have taken a morbid delight in charting the casualty rates for the Peking Pox and reckon that it will be more or less over by the the middle to end of June. For your sake I hope there is another outbreak of the Chines Cough later in the year because you strike me as a born worry guts who likes to have something to fester over. As for the rest of us, it is only the flu and there are more important things to worry on.

What is your data assumption that means that the cases won't start going up again?



Are you assuming that a lot higher percentage of the global population have already had this than what we thought?



Are you assuming that it's less infectious than scientists claim (and if so how do you explain that we are still having 8000 cases every day)?



If not what are you assuming?  Maybe that since you seem to think this is just like the flu, we will continue to get hundreds of deaths per day from it but it won't be newsworthy any more?

[Thomas]

Weston-Super-Mare is in Somerset. Most of the people I know would not go to Weston-Super-Mare for a bet.

Good. That`ll help stop the peking pox spreading and ensure we all end this stupid feckin lockdown and get out for a pint and a haircut and back to normality.

[papasmurf]

Probably because people in Devon and Cornwall can't follow instructions.

Obviously the rest of the country is better at this.

Weston-Super-Mare is in Somerset. Most of the people I know would not go to Weston-Super-Mare for a bet.

[Thomas]

Probably because people in Devon and Cornwall can't follow instructions.

Obviously the rest of the country is better at this.

This is all you are going to hear for a while now. As soon as the infection rate rises by one , the ususal suspects will be screaming for total worldwide lockdown in amongst trying to stir up mass hysteria.



In areas where the children cant observe simple instructions , they should be lock downed while the rest of us adults are allowed out for a pint and a hair cut.



To be quite frank barry i think the vast majority of folk are bored shitless with all this crap now. If my wife doesnt get out to go shopping pretty soon , i suspect someone  is going to be murdered pretty shortly. :roll:

[Barry]

Probably because people in Devon and Cornwall can't follow instructions.

Obviously the rest of the country is better at this.

[papasmurf]

Looks like Weston-Super-Mare could be the start of the spike in Covid-19:-



More at link:-



https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/south-west-highest-coronavirus-infection-4177659">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornw ... on-4177659">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/south-west-highest-coronavirus-infection-4177659

11:26, 30 MAY 2020

The South West has the highest coronavirus 'R rate' in the UK

There are warnings that new restrictions could be needed



An 'R' number for each region in the UK has been revealed for the first time - and the South West has the highest.



The number, also known as 'reproduction rate', represents the coronavirus infection rate. If it goes above 1, new restrictions and tougher social distancing measures could be needed.



The South West is estimated to have the highest infection rate with 0.9. The North East and East Midlands are thought to have the next highest, followed by the North West.



However it is thought to be the highest because of a recent rise in cases in the Bristol and Weston-super-Mare areas.

[Borchester]

Borkie , i am feckin choking fur a pint and a haircut. :roll:  ::

 

[Thomas]

As for the rest of us, it is only the flu and there are more important things to worry on.

Borkie , i am feckin choking fur a pint and a haircut. :roll:  ::

[Borchester]

Your estimates assume that the whole thing will burn out and that there won't be a second increase.  That's what everyone obviously hopes, but if the virus is still circulating and we increase the number of social contacts too much, it's scientifically certain that cases will start going up again.

Maybe Javert, but probably not.



As far as I can see the only scientific certainty we have is that most of our data is crap and the rest is pretty suss.



I have taken a morbid delight in charting the casualty rates for the Peking Pox and reckon that it will be more or less over by the the middle to end of June. For your sake I hope there is another outbreak of the Chines Cough later in the year because you strike me as a born worry guts who likes to have something to fester over. As for the rest of us, it is only the flu and there are more important things to worry on.

[Javert]

My original estimate was burn out by 13 June with less than 400 deaths between 14-20 June (dates inclusive). But cottontops are spiteful old sods and have recently increased their death rate. So now I reckon we won't see this Peking Pox settle down until 23 June.



Lucky no one took me up on the bet about the fox food    

Your estimates assume that the whole thing will burn out and that there won't be a second increase.  That's what everyone obviously hopes, but if the virus is still circulating and we increase the number of social contacts too much, it's scientifically certain that cases will start going up again.