Coronavirus infection rate is still too high

[papasmurf]

It amazes me how the ONS, is considered so reliable for stats not just on this issue but many others across the board.
That is until it gives a true number for daily infection and excess deaths in the Covid period . If it suits the government story the ONS is still widely used by them . These two stats just don't suit ,so don't appear to be promoted.

ONS latest datasets. (These are undated every seven days and are used at briefings.)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fhealthandsocialcare%2fconditionsanddiseases%2fdatasets%2fcoronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata%2f2020/covid19infectionsurveydatasets20200625.xlsx

[Good old]

56,000 people a week according to Smurfy. That's 3 million a year.

According to the ONS, but that is not the latest figure it  is now around 35000 a week

It amazes me how the ONS, is considered so reliable for stats not just on this issue but many others across the board.
That is until it gives a true number for daily infection and excess deaths in the Covid period . If it suits the government story the ONS is still widely used by them . These two stats just don't suit ,so don't appear to be promoted.

[papasmurf]

56,000 people a week according to Smurfy. That's 3 million a year.

According to the ONS, but that is not the latest figure it  is now around 35000 a week

[Barry]

The current slow burn of 1100 detected infections per day and decreasing deaths is slowly building up that herd immunity which is essential in the absence of a vaccine.
It will soon be safe for Smurfy to come out of his shell.
A life without risk is no life at all

Whilst Smurfy might be wrong on so many things I believe he is correct that it is far from all over,anyway to herd immunity,what herd immunity?

Is there a country on earth that has it? certainly not Sweden where they have failed in their attempts,when you say slowly building it up,how slowly do you envisage.

56,000 people a week according to Smurfy. That's 3 million a year.

[papasmurf]

The current slow burn of 1100 detected infections per day and decreasing deaths is slowly building up that herd immunity which is essential in the absence of a vaccine.
It will soon be safe for Smurfy to come out of his shell.
A life without risk is no life at all

With the antics of the last few days I am staying put on my property. If the same crowds of idiots turn up at Kynance Cove as they did last year causing chaos I expect the locals will take direct action.

[cromwell]

The current slow burn of 1100 detected infections per day and decreasing deaths is slowly building up that herd immunity which is essential in the absence of a vaccine.
It will soon be safe for Smurfy to come out of his shell.
A life without risk is no life at all

Whilst Smurfy might be wrong on so many things I believe he is correct that it is far from all over,anyway to herd immunity,what herd immunity?

Is there a country on earth that has it? certainly not Sweden where they have failed in their attempts,when you say slowly building it up,how slowly do you envisage.

[Barry]

The current slow burn of 1100 detected infections per day and decreasing deaths is slowly building up that herd immunity which is essential in the absence of a vaccine.
It will soon be safe for Smurfy to come out of his shell.
A life without risk is no life at all

[Barry]

UK reported 55 new deaths. (I know it's after a weekend) - Compared with the same day last week it is down 50%.

Current new cases 1,205 - down from 1,570 a week ago.



and, from 8 days ago:

 That 8000 a day is going to look nowhere high enough give it a week.

Which week?   ::

[papasmurf]

ONS estimated  Infection rate has dropped from 8000 a day to 5600 a day:-



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52933804">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52933804



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5june2020">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... /5june2020">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5june2020

[Barry]

So would I, but Barry still thinks it is the Chinese sniffles.

You are mixing me up with Borchester who said that. I don't deny that it is serious.

And it's the Chinese virus, because it clearly came from Wuhan.

[papasmurf]

The ONS are not given to making stuff up randomly, so I would certainly take this estimate seriously.

So would I, but Barry still thinks it is the Chinese sniffles.

[Javert]

From what I can tell, the 1800 number is the number of actual positive test results.



The 8000 number is the number of people that the ONS estimated were infected that day based on all the various other data sources that they have - for example they have data from antibody research studies, surveys like the Covid-symptom tracker, and surveys carried out from Porton down.  Using this they can construct a statistical model of the number of infections per day additional to the people who were actually tested.



Of course, this number will have a margin of error/confidence interval.  I think on at least one occasion they actually put the confidence intervals in those slides but then they took them off again.



The ONS are not given to making stuff up randomly, so I would certainly take this estimate seriously.

[papasmurf]

Latest 1,871



https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public">//https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

That is the result from tests, the reality is far higher.

[Barry]

No I heard him and read the ONS report as well.



Barry seems to.be the only one who doubts and seems to have some source that suggests is around 1800 a day.

Latest 1,871



https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public">//https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

[BeElBeeBub]

Blimey is it only me that heard Vallance last night saying the true figure is around 8000 per day.

No I heard him and read the ONS report as well.



Barry seems to.be the only one who doubts and seems to have some source that suggests is around 1800 a day.