COVID-19 R-rate rises to 1 in South West

[Borchester]

i think we all are.....

what did you base your estimate on? a lower IFR than thought?  Lots of "hidden immunity"?  "Virus goes away in summer"? Maybe it's sibling "viruses mutate to become less deadly"?



Genuinely curious as to why you thought it would be "burned out" by now?

Working on the basis that most of the data is iffy and the rest crap, I made a graph of the daily deaths  in the UK. Then I drew a line of best fit from the maximum value to that of the last day. The result was a decline in the daily mortality of about 15 cases. It seemed reasonable at the time, but if I could be arsed to dig out my log tables it now looks as though we are looking at an exponential curve, which is producing a decline of only about 11 cases a day. So, taking the worse case scenario and with 350 odd deaths on Friday, we have about 32 more days before the pubs reopen. Which means early July.



Of course, if the cotton tops keep on turning up their toes at an ever increasing rate it might drag on even longer.  

[johnofgwent]

Genuinely curious as to why you thought it would be "burned out" by now?

In my case ... I too had Hope's of such , originally as a result of reading, in the depths of winter, stuff like this (this is the only one I can now find, there were many back when it was still dark at 7am)



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/21/opinion/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer-infections.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... tions.html">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/21/opinion/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer-infections.html



Today we see most of these pooh-poohed and siren voices warn of pneumonia rising in december.



We should have nuked wuhan and shot all chinese trying to enter western europe back in january.



If this crap goes on I think we should nuke wuhan as retribution.

[Thomas]

The problem with Iran is ......



https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/bizarre-cures-for-coronavirus-in-iran.html">https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... -iran.html">https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/bizarre-cures-for-coronavirus-in-iran.html

 :roll:  ::

"My family and I don't believe in modern medicine," Zeinab, 34, a religious woman from Mashhad, told Al-Monitor. "My niece has cancer, but she has refrained from taking pills.

[/b]

Tabrizian used his channel on the Telegram messaging app Feb. 26 to unveil his method for curing those infected with the coronavirus. "Before sleeping, put a cotton ball dipped in violet oil to the anus," he wrote

[/b]









Now now john , dont be upsetting quackers. You know how he likes a good bit of hysteria and doom mongering!



Its nothing to do with the backwardness of their society and poverty , its all to do with abandoning the lockdown. :roll:

[johnofgwent]

For a graph showing what a second wave looks like, look no further than Iran page on Worldometer.  I've linked to this before, but it so important and it's there in plain sight but nobody seems to taking any notice of it.  Iran introduced lockdown and the number of daily cases declined steadily, then it abandoned the lockdown and the daily cases have risen steadily since then. What's more the new peak in daily cases is higher than the previous one.



Reducing opportunities for the virus to spread reduces the number of cases.  

Increasing the opportunities leads to an increase in cases.



See graph of Iran's second wave . .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

The problem with Iran is ......



https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/bizarre-cures-for-coronavirus-in-iran.html">https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... -iran.html">https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/bizarre-cures-for-coronavirus-in-iran.html

[BeElBeeBub]

I am getting pissed off with this bug.

i think we all are.....

My original estimate was for it to reach burn out by now, then the middle of the month and now I reckon early July. And the bloody mortality is creeping up. I thought it would be something like 42,000, now it might reach 50,000.

what did you base your estimate on? a lower IFR than thought?  Lots of "hidden immunity"?  "Virus goes away in summer"? Maybe it's sibling "viruses mutate to become less deadly"?



Genuinely curious as to why you thought it would be "burned out" by now?

[Thomas]

Iran might be a rather different society from ours but nobody's told the virus that.

It can't distinguish between Iranians packed into a mosque for Friday prayers and British people crowding onto a beach.

No one but you is suggesting it can.



Read the story instead of generalising .



You cant compare some backward society where they dont even have the basic ability to wash their hands to western nations in terms of a  potential second wave while hinting its simply because they reduced/ abandoned the lockdown. Unlike scotland or england , the story hints that certain areas of iran have never had a lockdown in the first place ( or refused to accept one) with extremely poor to non existant access to health services in a country that has been suffering under western sanctions.



Its highly nuanced the reasons behind this apparent second wave in iran that make it extremely unlikely to happen here.

[papasmurf]

I am getting pissed off with this bug.



My original estimate was for it to reach burn out by now,

It would have done if there had been a real and harshly enforced lock down much earlier, but with Bojo The Clown in charge it was always going to be a disaster.

[Borchester]

I am getting pissed off with this bug.



My original estimate was for it to reach burn out by now, then the middle of the month and now I reckon early July. And the bloody mortality is creeping up. I thought it would be something like 42,000, now it might reach 50,000.



It is mostly coffin dodgers who are keeling over and as usual the selfish old sods refuse to show any consistency. There is no way to work out any sort of formula other than the crudest linear equations. It is like perturbation theory, all bash to fit and paint to hide. If the R number in Hackney is greater than unity and if Pat can provide it I should be able to tell him when he will be dead, but I am afraid that even that will be a guess estimate.



There is a lot to be said for the Yellow Peril, but this flu of theirs is not one of them.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Iran might be a rather different society from ours but nobody's told the virus that.

It can't distinguish between Iranians packed into a mosque for Friday prayers and British people crowding onto a beach.

[Thomas]

For a graph showing what a second wave looks like, look no further than Iran page on Worldometer.  I've linked to this before, but it so important and it's there in plain sight but nobody seems to taking any notice of it.  Iran introduced lockdown and the number of daily cases declined steadily, then it abandoned the lockdown and the daily cases have risen steadily since then. What's more the new peak in daily cases is higher than the previous one.



Reducing opportunities for the virus to spread reduces the number of cases.  

Increasing the opportunities leads to an increase in cases.



See graph of Iran's second wave . .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

Its a bit more nuanced than what you make out quack.

A dramatic surge in coronavirus infections in Iran has rekindled the largest outbreak in the Middle East, just weeks after the country appeared to have tamed its epidemic.



While the epidemic was initially concentrated in the capital, Tehran, and the holy city of Qom, the new flare-up has largely been centered in Khuzestan province, an oil-rich region in Iran's southwest.



There, an ethnic Arab minority, which has long complained of discrimination, has at times balked at central government control. Doctors and residents say that widespread disregard for public health restrictions in Khuzestan has helped fuel the pathogen's spread.



A relative lack of infrastructure has undercut efforts to address the public health emergency in the province. Clinics and hospitals are overwhelmed, the local economy has ground to a halt and a water shortage near the provincial capital, Ahvaz, has driven angry residents into the streets.



"How can I take a shower or even just wash my hands if I don't have any water? We haven't had water for a whole month," a resident of Ahvaz yelled angrily in a video recently posted on social media.

[/b]



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-coronavirus-cases-surge-again-as-strategic-province-becomes-new-epicenter/2020/06/05/6a5e4f9e-a021-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/mi ... story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-coronavirus-cases-surge-again-as-strategic-province-becomes-new-epicenter/2020/06/05/6a5e4f9e-a021-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html





No one is suggesting a second wave couldnt happen in any western country , and no we arent getting complacent , but i hardly think the issues that appear to be producing a second wave in Iran are comparable to countries in the western world .

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

For a graph showing what a second wave looks like, look no further than Iran page on Worldometer.  I've linked to this before, but it so important and it's there in plain sight but nobody seems to taking any notice of it.  Iran introduced lockdown and the number of daily cases declined steadily, then it abandoned the lockdown and the daily cases have risen steadily since then. What's more the new peak in daily cases is higher than the previous one.



Reducing opportunities for the virus to spread reduces the number of cases.  

Increasing the opportunities leads to an increase in cases.



See graph of Iran's second wave . .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

[papasmurf]

1



Looks like the mass invasion of the West Country could have caused a blip, and the anticipation of the easing of the lock-down may be affecting the rest of the country...

Given the chaos of the last few days plus some (expletive  deleted) has been organised illegal raves I suspect matters will get worse.

[patman post]

The COVID-19 reproductive rate - also known as the 'R value' - has risen to 1 in the South West, meaning the region now has the second highest rate of transmission of the virus in England, new analysis shows.

Public Health England (PHE) has given a regional breakdown of the coronavirus transmission number, or R value, with the latest estimate showing it is around one in the North West and South West regions of England.

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/covid-19-r-rate-rises-4197921">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornw ... es-4197921">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/covid-19-r-rate-rises-4197921



Looks like the mass invasion of the West Country could have caused a blip, and the anticipation of the easing of the lock-down may be affecting the rest of the country...