Second wave this winter

[johnofgwent]

I'm no conspiracy theorist but I have to say a "vaccine" that is good for only sixty days so presumably has to be repeated then for another 60 days sounds suspiciously like a piece of software whose licence has to  be renewed or you lose it.

According to "experts" on Tv yesterday, those "Waiting for God," will need two doses of vaccine anyway. (No time distance apart was specified.)

Well, "needing two doses" or a "booster" is not that unusual - picking just one example tetanus needs a booster, after ten years or you lose the cover. Yellow fever only lasts a certain time. I forget now what else they jabbed me with in my time working with animals as a medical researcher but i do know at tone point i had more entries on my vaccination card than the average BBC journalist entering a war zone...

My concern is the rather short time period over which the effects of the "vaccine" under study persist. 60 days is not that useful (unless you are int he buisness of selling vaccine shots in which case it is a clear magic bullet for your COVID recovery balance sheet)

[Barry]

Would that be like the same 500,000 in the UK who were going to die in the first wave?

Well - PHE have been doing their best to bump up the figures, but they've not managed 10% of that, have they?

[papasmurf]

Would that be like the same 500,000 in the UK who were going to die in the first wave?

With no mitigation at all,  in theory, I repeat in theory the number of dead would be 1.5 million. (That does not include those under 70 years old with pre-existing conditions.)

[Sheepy]

Would that be like the same 500,000 in the UK who were going to die in the first wave?

[papasmurf]

I'm no conspiracy theorist but I have to say a "vaccine" that is good for only sixty days so presumably has to be repeated then for another 60 days sounds suspiciously like a piece of software whose licence has to  be renewed or you lose it.

According to "experts" on Tv yesterday, those "Waiting for God," will need two doses of vaccine anyway. (No time distance apart was specified.)

[johnofgwent]

I don't know the best place to post this....

Three days ago, a friend of mine who like me has stood at the bench at the bottom of the Royal Institution's lecture theatre to discuss his work on cell surface antigens, but unlike me stood there at the behest of the ROYAL society (I was only there at the behest of the BIOCHEMICAL society) posted something that made me just a tad worried.

He has in the past been rather keen on the effect of ultraviolet light on the carbon-carbon bonds in organic molecules, and recently looked at the publications of the Oxford based group working on a "vaccine"

He seemed rather concerned that the Chinese research paper they were pinning their hopes on was

a) somewhat incomplete
b) failed to do what any life scientist worth the description would call a double blind test,

more worryingly
c) tried to pretend something they actually did compensated for the fact that they had not done a double blind test the way the rest of the world does,
d) used a vanishingly small number of test subjects
e) had significant problems with pain and discomfort suffered by those test subjects upon administration of the virus, requiring administration of painkillers and antiinflammatories

and best of all
f) failed to check that the patients in the trial had a history of having covid-19. It seems half those enrolled into this test had been tested positive for the virus and survived it and would therefore have the antibodies to the virus in their system through the natural immunity acquired as a survivor

You just could not make this shit up.

But yesterday he excelled himself

To put it bluntly, he looked at another paper published/cited by this Oxford group and found that it showed levels of Immunoglobulin G fell back sharply after 6 to 7 weeks. His conclusions can be summarised as "Ah !! Now I understand !! I was very confused when I saw this group waxing lyrical about the results of a study that was clearly unfinished. It is now clear that had the study proceeded to consider levels of immunity in subjects beyond sixty days, they would have concluded the "vaccine" did not actually work"

I'm no conspiracy theorist but I have to say a "vaccine" that is good for only sixty days so presumably has to be repeated then for another 60 days sounds suspiciously like a piece of software whose licence has to  be renewed or you lose it.

[johnofgwent]

I think (hope?) we will be allot better prepared come the second wave - a lot of businesses had to rush into shutting down all at once, remote working was effectively being put into implementation without much training or experience. Whereas I think going forward there will be a more effective 'cautionary wind down' period before any total lockdown. As well as the public being more informed, and with more access to masks/visors etc.

and maybe most importantly the mixed messages being generated by a number of people who were claiming it was all an overreaction, 'nothing but a bad cold' etc, will be drowned out by the statistics available showing how many have died, or have ongoing -potentially chronic- health issues after 'recovering' from the virus.

Well the Plant Manager sent a letter out yesterday saying a second LOCKDOWN will kill the company (not that it matters much to me as I am now one of the last ten still furloughed and i think we all know what that really means)

[Barry]

Another spike, probably mostly young healthy people who could be OK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-53505922

[Left of Centre]

Tweet from Professor Karol Sikora below.

Below where? Did you forget the link?

[papasmurf]

Tweet from Professor Karol Sikora below.

Below where? Did you forget the link?

[Left of Centre]

Tweet from Professor Karol Sikora below. Worth following if you want a daily dose of positivity. Most startling figure there is the seven day rolling average of UK deaths is 75 compared to more than 900 in April. Huge progress.

66 reported fatalities today in comparison to 85 89 149 137 on previous Thursdays. 642 recorded new cases.

Back in April the 7 day rolling average for fatalities was well over 900, it's now below 75.

If we're all sensible, it will continue to decline. Please keep at it.

[Left of Centre]

A lot of scaremongering in the media about second waves and the 'r' rate and local lockdowns. No acknowledgement of the bigger overall picture which is that the virus is slowly fading away. We're averaging around 100 deaths a day now compared to some days in April where there were 1,000. Have we not just recorded the lowest weekly death figures since the start of the lockdown!?

Your appraisal seems UK-centric, but I hope you're right. The lock-down, hand washing, and mask-wearing on public transport has had an effect. And recent higher temperatures and longer hours of daylight have too. But October onward is likely to be a dangerous time. Already Bradford and Doncaster are causing similar concern to Liecester...

Yes my appraisal is very UK-centric. So far this week we're seeing a continued drop in deaths. Yesterday saw 155 compared to 138 the previous Tuesday and today has seen a drop from 126 last week to 85 this one. Cases at 530 is well below the 1,000 plus we were getting just a few weeks ago. European countries are seeing similar decreases despite lockdown easing.

Yes globally in countries such as Brazil and India you're seeing a spike in cases but the general picture in Europe is one of decline, and we all know how well the Aussies and NZ have contained the virus, albeit there's a flare up in Melbourne. You will get some regionalised flare ups such as what we've seen in Leicester and I know there's talk of the same in Blackburn. Test track and trace is crucial now as we can't continue in lockdown as there will be economic catastrophe and mass job losses that we're already seeing.

[papasmurf]

Depends Pappy.

It could be that the second wave of the Covid 19 pandemic will be as bad as feared and the leafy West Country lanes will be choked with dead and dying. And then when the locals do manage to struggle to their feet they will be driven out of the area by the economic horrors of Brexit.

Which could mean that those of us looking for a second home by the coast might find quite a few properties going cheap.

You just can't help it can you. Is it impossible for you to be serious?
Anyone who thinks January 1st 2021 is going to lead to a land flowing with milk and honey is suffering from a severe case of ignorance is bliss.
The government has wasted over year and made no preparation at all. Now they have left it too late.

[Borchester]

These are the facts. But this won't stop project fear 2021

The reality of Brexit will I suspect will be worse than Covid 19.

Depends Pappy.

It could be that the second wave of the Covid 19 pandemic will be as bad as feared and the leafy West Country lanes will be choked with dead and dying. And then when the locals do manage to struggle to their feet they will be driven out of the area by the economic horrors of Brexit.

Which could mean that those of us looking for a second home by the coast might find quite a few properties going cheap.

[papasmurf]

These are the facts. But this won't stop project fear 2021

The reality of Brexit will I suspect will be worse than Covid 19.