General Brexit discussion thread

[Baff]

Thanks for the correction.

So lets play with your number 43%.

43% of UK exports to the EU is services.
Most services aren't covered by the EU single market but some are.

So lets imagine 30% aren't.
Economics isn't a precise science I will only use very loose figures. Ballpark indicators.

Then the number of exports to EU countries covered by the single market are 70% of the number you are currently offering as total EU trade to the EU.

Which is why you think the EU is a bigger market than the US.
And that we should prioritise them as a trade partner to the exclusion of the US market.

But the maths doesn't stack up. This is not economic expediency.


Here is my conjecture.
It's not the economics, it's the politics.

You want to be pro EU and anti US/counterbalance to US.
And you made up some cock and bull economics story that you thought no one would understand because everyone is a pig ignorant who can be condensended into taking your word for it. A Brexit numpty perhaps. You get the idea.

I use "you" figuaratively in this. Your personal story may vary from the theme in some way.

And so we voted everyone who talked like this out of office.
Because they will say anything. They lied to our faces and we took their toys away from them.
This is about power.
Who rules here.

And the worlds worst economists... they just got sacked en masse.



There is more than one way to skin a rabbit, more than one successful economic model available to follow. If you want to get rich, work out how we are doing it faster than everyone else does.
This is a shake up. Opportunity awaits.



And yes India is still blagging us for free movement of people. No change there.

[patman post]

43% of our exports go to the EU.
Of which less than half are subject to EU tariff barriers.
The bulk being financial services for which the EU is not a single market.

Only 43% of UK's exports to the EU are services. 57% are goods. Which other countries are likely to take these without imposing restrictions or demands? India has already voiced its desire for free movement to be part of any comprehensive trade deal with the UK...

[Thomas]

apart from my belief that the phrase "for hundreds of years" wouldn't usually be understood to mean from 1820.

maybe in your neck of the woods.

...but then , you are also the guy trying and failing to spin black lives matters as some acceptable wishy washy organisation that has everyones best interests at heart....

You disagree. So be it...

I think everyone is so weary of your constant project fear doom  and gloom that most folk are past caring what you say.

For the record , i think there may very well be potentially a slight reducation in food choice , and possible a slight rise in food costs of a miniscule amount , i dont know but it is possible.

However i keep pointing out , thats what your country voted for , and they keep telling you its a price they want to pay for their freedom.

You cant argue with that.

[Baff]

I don't think there will be a reduction of available choice.

EU foods will still be available if you are willing to pay a few % more.
Just as spices will be cheaper by the same.

In fact if we de regulate there will be more choice.
New York steak for example.

Chlorinated chicken if you prefer.

A bottle of French may cost 50p more than a bottle of Australian, but it will still be available to you.

However you may find your shopping habits adjust to take advantage of cheaper prices.


There is no shortage of food producers world wide.
No shortage of places we can buy produce from.

[patman post]

You were questioning my statement the uk hadnt been self sufficient in food for hundreds of years , and the only part of the link i supplied , and that you quote above , that was relevant was the bit that said

Quote (selected)

    correctly pointing out that Britain hasn't been self-sufficient in food for two centuries.


and then you went on the bleat sumfing about hundreds of years not meaning (200?) or some such other cac.

The rest of the link is an irrelevance.

The lowst level of self sufficiency the uk had in food production was around the 1950`s decades before european membership , and the point i was making is , despite your bleat that is we leave at the end of december with no deal fire and flood and all the usual scaremongering we have been accustomed to you waffling on about , uk self sufficiency in food has again been falling these last twenty years of eu membership , and yep , we are still here and still surviving.

My only posts on this are #699, #702, #708, #714 and #759
None of them (in context) contain what you say you've inferred from them — apart from my belief that the phrase "for hundreds of years" wouldn't usually be understood to mean from 1820.

My main point is that without a comprehensive agreement with the EU, the UK will probably experience a reduction in food choice and a rise in food prices after 2021. You disagree. So be it...

[Baff]

And if you want to eat mislabelled poncey overpriced food, that's your problem.

As liberals there is no reason why we should ban each others preferences.
Good to be out of the EU. Fascist wankers that they are.

[papasmurf]

You may eat EU food if you prefer it.

I prefer to eat safe food, that is traceable to origin. If you wish to eat crap, that is your problem.

[Baff]

I will be welcome to do so very soon.
Currently I have to leave the country to do so.

So thanks for allowing me the choice of what I can eat in future.
I appreciate your liberality and offer you the same.

You may eat EU food if you prefer it.

[papasmurf]

Cheap food is best food. It's not just the rich who want to eat.

Well if you want to risk your health eating chlorine washed chicken and meat full of growth hormone and trace carcinogenic chemicals, you are welcome.

[Baff]

  these countries can just ship any old sh!t food into the UK tariff free.

And they will.

Good.
EU donkey meat sucks balls and costs a fortune.
Cheap food is best food. It's not just the rich who want to eat.

[Baff]

What the EU describe as trade deals however, don't typically involve tariff reductions.
Only 11 of them of do.

And most of those are pretty minor in scope.

The important ones being financially, 8 of the EU countries themselves, Japan and South Korea.
As you correctly note the really important trade deals the EU have are internal in nature. Between EU members.


43% of our exports go to the EU.
Of which less than half are subject to EU tariff barriers.
The bulk being financial services for which the EU is not a single market.

So your figures are somewhat spurious I'm afraid to say.

Our largest single export market is the USA and we are in negotiations with them for a trade deal, just as we are the EU.
We had to leave the EU to do this.


I agree regulations are the primary barrier to trade which is why leaving EU regulations unlocks the rest of the world for our trade harmonisation.
The other 57% of our trade.
Blocking out all but 1/14th of the world economy to stay regulated with the EU makes no economic sense at all. Just stupidity.
Politics dressed up as economics.



The UK tariff schedule protects UK domestic production.
The EU tariff schedule protects EU domestic production. Which is far bigger and wider ranging, meaning that it has more external tariffs than we ourselves need.
By adopting less tariffs, we can get better reciprocal arrangements with our trade partners than they can.
The smaller the market, the lower the number of tariffs applied to it.

This is why trade deals we make get lower tariff barriers than trade deals the EU make.
cf Japan.


Shared costs.
Shared costs with the EU  are a nightmare for us as they make us pay a larger share than most others.
It is cheaper not to share costs than it is to subsidise the others we share with.

[papasmurf]

  these countries can just ship any old sh!t food into the UK tariff free.

And they will.

[GerryT]

The EU has 11 tariff reducing trade agreements.

Most of them with countries who have already signed the same or better agreements with us.
Most of them with the exact same tiny nations.
In the last 6 months we have signed 21 such trade agreements almost double what the EU has managed to sign in the last couple of decades.



That other people are going to be making money than in the previous EU years where other billionaires made it at other peoples expense, is a good thing.
Someone else's turn.
Sorry Mr Soros etc. No one cares.

Your very much ill informed. The EU has the largest quantity of trade agreements of any country or association on the planet. The basic details are:

106 Countries in trade deals (including the EU 28).
24  Countries have trade deals agreed and are in the process of being ratified.
6   Countries are being negotiated. This includes China and Australia which are close to closing.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/#_in-place

Most trade deals the EU sign includes a clause that precludes the other party to offering better terms to another country under a FTA. The EU can do this because of their size, so you would want to show where the UK has gained a better trade deal than the EU. Maybe for one product which the EU isn't interested in but a complete FTA I very much doubt. The UK market is too small.

Remember when the UK leaves in January it leaves all these trade deals also, it starts with Zero deals, and will build from there. You say there are 21 deals signed but that's not important, of the existing exports, what % of this does the new 21 deals represent as a volume of trade. To start you off, 43% of your exports goes to the EU, that will now be hit with EU WTO tariffs.

But the bigger barrier to trade are the no tariff barriers, these are where there is real cost. compliance with different regulatory regimes, customs declarations/paperwork, delays, inspections/testing, having regulatory bodies. All these costs are passed onto the consumer. For example the UK is looking to employ 50,000 Additional customs officials, Business that export or import will have to employ customs agents. The additional cost is estimated at 7b a yr, every yr. That's about the amount the UK paid as membership of the EU, ouch.
https://smallbusiness.co.uk/how-will-brexit-affect-my-imports-and-exports-where-to-find-customs-help-2550790/

Then there's the regulatory bodies you need, these are shared costs across the EU, but alone the UK will need their own, you tell me, what will that cost ?
There are approx 30 such agencies, such as Eurathom, Aviation, Medecines, Chemicals....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/07/brexit-regulation-britain-eu-agencies-sajid-javid

The real problem is the UK Govt has done nothing and with the added complexity of C19, the perfect storm is brewing.

You also talked about WTO, you do realise that each country sets it's own trade tariffs, which are only applied to imports. If the UK want's zero tariffs on it's imports it can very easily do so, but I've seen it's tariff schedule and their not doing that. What most countries do is have low to zero tariffs on products it doesn't produce at home and high tariffs on business sectors it wants to protect. For most countries this is seen in food production, average WTO tariffs on meat is 40%, because farmers need protection, the UK is planning to do this also.
We all know the UK can't feed itself, hasn't been able to do that for hundreds of years. So Jan 1 any new foods brought in will be hit with UK Tariffs. The price hike you see in shops on imported food will be done because of your own govt.
If the UK reduces it's WTO tariffs then why could any country sign a trade deal with it ?  these countries can just ship any old sh!t food into the UK tariff free.

[papasmurf]

This was the guy who was saying pre 2015 you tories better watch out labour are going to win the next election.

I stated no such thing.

[Thomas]

I fully expect you said that about the day after the referendum result and the day after Brexit too.

With a track record of economic predictions like that, you shouldn't wonder why so few of us take them seriously at all.

I think I'll leave you to do all the hand wringing, teeth gnashing, hair pulling and wailing.
I find myself busy.

This was the guy who was saying pre 2015 you tories better watch out labour are going to win the next election.

Then 2017.

then 2019.

He was a wee bit confused over the brexit referendum in 2016 , although he hated immigration and wanted an end to FOM , he couldnt come right out and oppose or support brexit till he saw how the tories would act , then when they became brexiters , pappy went into this ussal role of opposing something for the sake of opposing the tories.

Cranky auld crackpot down in cornwall with nothing better to do wae his time .

You must be the highlight of his day baffy....someone to talk to when he isnt hiding in his bedroom from the chinese sniffles.