General Brexit discussion thread

Thomas · May 31, 2020, 07:40:12 AM

~~Quote from: Dynamis post_id=26401 time=1590510709 user_id=98~~

I personally would like an English version of the SNP in Westminster,

This interests me dyno.

With the greatest respect , apart from the SNP having some policies that fit with your world view on for example eu membership , you`ll forgive me if i say i dont think you really understand the snp or the yes movement.

Trying to nick ukip votes and the anglo brit left trying to use the snp vote are some of the things recently ive read you post that interested me , but also showed me you dont really have a clue.

Political parties dont just appear. The conditions that exist in scotland for the rise of the snp over the best part of a century dont exist in england.

So forgive me , how does an snp type party appear in england?

You do realise the snp are a nationalist party , who attract a wide range of folk with varying political views from the scottish left centre to the scottish right , and in a normal indepdnent scotland , the party wouldnt exist or certainly would greatly change ?!

If you can manage to get over your childishness of recent days and the big sulk you appear to be in with me , it should make an interesting discussion.

The snp power is its a broad church who unite scottish people in one thing and one thing only......independence from westminster. A party like this isnt going to appear in england as the very social and political conditions dont exist in your country to band people from all different walks of life together in a common aim.( possibly brexit did that in a certain way )

As i said to you before , there seems to be the mass misunderstanding in england of what the snp actually are , or in the english left that somehow scotland is some communist left wing country that wants some left wing utopian paradise. We dont.

I would say historically , scotland has been economicaly to the left of england but socially just as conservative if not more over the years.

As isay , its an interesting debate to be had if you want to , but clearly you are starting from a point of complete misunderstanding. The SNP might come across to you as some left wing cuddly feelgood party , but i can assure you over the years they have had their extreme elements like siol nan gaidheal , and the current party is going through a slight crises in it is attracting careerists and old elements of labour troughers , and once covid 19 is over , i expect to see a purging of the party.

Stevlin · May 27, 2020, 04:06:43 PM

~~Quote from: Baff post_id=26149 time=1590427820 user_id=121~~
i certainly agree that with fishing as such a minor part of the economy, the governmentis perfectly able to throw them under the bus for "the greater good".

That is what happened last time. It is how all the damage to our fishing industry occured in the first plaice.

The fishing Industry may well be a small part of the UK economy now...but it once employed significant numbers - that of course was prior to the UK joining the the EU - or the 'Common Market' as it was then. "After its introduction in 1970, the CFP has been synonymous with the huge decline of UK fish stocks, deterioration of the environment, wasteful discarding of fish, and the destruction of Britain's fishing industry and communities." It isn't all down to membership of the EU though, as the UK were not particularly overconcerned originally with conservation of 'stocks', however, the CFP is considered to be the principal reason behind the British Fishing Industry decline - and probably argued as such by Grimsby fishermen - or what is left of them.

Baff · May 27, 2020, 07:15:39 AM

WTO isn't the be all and end all for me.

Yes, Trump will be trying to push everyone around.

As will the EU, China, us and every other Tom Dick and Harry.

That's life in the big wide world.

There comes a point where you yourself are a big enough power to refuse anyone.

As you can see with us currently refusing the EU, we have always been big enough to do this.

Our economy, like America's is significanlty less international trade dependent than most of the other big ones.

Domestic trade is the core of it.

Compare that to Germany's and you will see that they simply can't push us around as much as we can them.

Their trade is predominantly a luxury for us. ours is more of an essential to them.

Germany can't make enemies. It can't go out of fashion. Too much of it's economy is export reliant.

If Mercedes becomes synonymous with people you despise, it's done. Same for all their other brands and their economy collapses and famines ensue. They are weak because of their heavier dependencies on their export market.

We are stronger on the push you around power stakes tham most and resistent enough to even the biggest single market in the world to say "F@@@ off". Which we just did.

The EU as an economic minus.

It's a trade bloc run to advantage 27 countries.

Meaning no single country can run their own trade to their own advantage.

With most of those countries our direct trade rivals, our direct competition, running our economy to benefit theirs is not a smart play.

Secondly it is replication of existing bureacracy.

Paying even more for a second system of government that replicates the work of our existing government.

We already pay one set of people to make trade deals, set standards, make employment laws. Manage migrations and all the rest.

Thirdly it is the wierdest FTA I have ever heard of. Unlike everry otherFTA ever, and since we have to pay for access to it. it isn;t technically a fre trade deal at all. It is ember ship to a trade bloc

Typically we make FTA's with complimentary economies, not competitive ones.

Example. Jamaica produces rum and banana's.

We do not. We priduce cars and farm machinery, they do not,

We do not compete with each other. We both want to buy eachothers goods. Free trade deal please.

A free trade deal with countries who out produce our industry, Germany for example, just means our car industry will lose domestic sales. This is bad. No free trade deal please.

Dropping import duties means our industry moves to cheaper places. Eastern Europe.

I could just go on for hours on all the economic negatives.

Big business can afford to bribe the EU, small business cannot.

Big business can afford to comply with ever changing regulations, small business cannot.

Most of our trade is done outside of the EU.

The EU's external tariffs drive up more prices for the consumer than the internal free trade saves them.

With most of our commerce domestic in nature it makes no sense to apply expensive EU compliance rules to the 80 or 90% of the economy that gets no benefit from it.

We have a trade deficit. We buy their goods, but they don't reciprocate that trade.

This is a wealth transfer from us to them. And the EU free trade deal doesn't cover our primary expiort, finanscial services,but it does cover theirs. Goods.

The trade deficit is enshrined in the deal.

Taken in aggregate our trade with the EU is loss making. We would be richer if we stopped trading with the EU entirely.

That is how bad it is for us economically. We would be richer if we ceased all economic activitiy with the EU.

(Although our shops shleves would have less choice).

And to my mind the EU has used this country as a cash cow.

The system is being run to benefit them at our expense. Net tax contributions are another obvious example of this.

It's slow to respond to changing economic realities, A whale not a dolphin.

It takes the agreement of 27 governments to enact things, which takes years.

If we take corona virus as an example, they have yet to agree any bailout funds. And the nearest they got was a plan to do some in March of next year.

Having so many veto's paralyses everything anyone wants to do. 27 competeing interests.

Anyway, there is a few examples to give you a taste.

I could go on all day.

Borg Refinery · May 26, 2020, 05:31:49 PM

Interesting, thanks.

Ok so a couple of things that stand out, no pressure if you don't want to reply to all or any of them.

1) The WTO is stalled wrt arbitration; Trump wants to 'destroy' it, we are trying to work out an alternative way of keeping it afloat. Isn't it a bit dangerous to rely on a target of Trump's?

2) In which ways do you see the EU as being an economic minus?

3) I completely agree with you about trade agreements being dangerous and counter productive in general. Lamy the ex WTO head said trade deals are all about 'clout', and larger powers forcing other powers to concede things, I'll find the video if you are interested.

IMHO that argument lends itself to being part of the EU bloc as we need 'clout', also imho you have as much autonomy as you want in practice - Orban's Hungary is still part of the EU and he has even suspended democracy?

I personally would like an English version of the SNP in Westminster, I'd like to see us part of a vastly reformed EU- but I accept the result of the election that delivered us Bojo on a landslide, and if no deal Brexit is what people want then let them have it.

Also, even with my ideal govt in Westminster - I would not support simply revoking art 50, to me that is wrong. But NDBrexit will likely go ahead and we'd have to have another ref afterwards; if they vote to re-join the eu, then we'd apply for rejoining.

Baff · May 26, 2020, 02:32:30 PM

I think the country will look pretty much the same for most people.

The big changesI want to see is our polticians being held to account for their policies, not passing the buck to the EU.

I think that one has been achieved. The current government seems more responsive.

I'd like to see our current trade arrangements with the EU ended.

I think they are counter productive and a bad deal. an ecoonomic minus, not an economic plus.

I think the government will sign us back up to an EU deal all too soon.

At worst case, even before we have left the current one.

I am hopeful this won't be the case and that we get a few years of WTO to reset the creeping burearcracy.

But by no means confident.

The government is making some of the right noises, but seeing will be believing.

In terms of the future arrangements i would like to see a few years of WTO and by then I think a trade deal can be made to drop some tariffs and trade barriers once we all know what it is we are missing (due to the benefit of hindsight) and once the EU has had time to acclimatise to the loss.

I liked what I saw of the new tariff regime at the WTO.

That seemed to drop as many tariffs as they felt would still protect domestic industry.

That was ticking my boxes.

There is stil room for trade agreements with other nations. To enhance that some more. Including the EU nations.

I am very nervous of trade agreements after the ordeal that was the EU however.

I think they are a good idea in principle, but i have no trust in our governments or theirs. It may just be that it is too much power for them to wield.

After the EU if i never see another trade deal again it will be too soon.

i would like some time out. I think pretty soon we will get back to ever increasing union again and I would like to enjoy some of what I have been advocating for after all these years. A blessed few years off.

How about yourself?

Borg Refinery · May 26, 2020, 01:27:47 PM

~~Quote from: Baff post_id=26149 time=1590427820 user_id=121~~
i certainly agree that with fishing as such a minor part of the economy, the governmentis perfectly able to throw them under the bus for "the greater good".

That is what hsppened last time. It is how all the damage to our fishing industry occured in the first plaice.

iI should be noted however that the same argument works equally well for the otherside too.

The EU doesn't need it's fishermen either.

Personally i think it is totemic issue and i expect the ogvernment to go through with it.

They have already published their plans in line with their agreement to do so.

And passed stuff into law.

~~What do you want the country to look like post Brexit and how well do you think the govt will manage to achieve that?~~

papasmurf · May 25, 2020, 06:44:53 PM

~~Quote from: Baff post_id=26149 time=1590427820 user_id=121~~

Flagship Bill creates powers to ensure a profitable future for the nation's fishing industry and protections for our precious Blue Belt.[/size]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sustainable-fisheries-enshrined-in-law-as-uk-leaves-the-eu">https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sust ... ves-the-eu">https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sustainable-fisheries-enshrined-in-law-as-uk-leaves-the-eu

That links is from January that is currently not valid.

Baff · May 25, 2020, 06:30:20 PM

i certainly agree that with fishing as such a minor part of the economy, the governmentis perfectly able to throw them under the bus for "the greater good".

That is what hsppened last time. It is how all the damage to our fishing industry occured in the first plaice.

iI should be noted however that the same argument works equally well for the otherside too.

The EU doesn't need it's fishermen either.

Personally i think it is totemic issue and i expect the ogvernment to go through with it.

They have already published their plans in line with their agreement to do so.

And passed stuff into law.

~~[size=150]~~Sustainable fisheries enshrined in law as UK leaves the EU

Flagship Bill creates powers to ensure a profitable future for the nation's fishing industry and protections for our precious Blue Belt.[/size]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sustainable-fisheries-enshrined-in-law-as-uk-leaves-the-eu">https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sust ... ves-the-eu">https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sustainable-fisheries-enshrined-in-law-as-uk-leaves-the-eu

Baff · May 25, 2020, 03:20:28 AM

The political declarations are not so much a statement of what the respective party's agree on as they are a statement of what they still can't agree on.

If there was agreement, they would be already be agreed. Not left in store for a future barny.

A fisheries agreement will be made on time, but the EU will have very little input in this agreement.

As you would expect from a foreign institution with no authorirty or jurisdiction in this area.

The agreement won't be what the EU would prefer to see.

The UK will agree quotas.

And the EU will have no say in what those quota's are or who gets the lisence to catch them.

This agreement is basically a one sided one.

Our side will say what it is going to do and their side will have to agree to whatever we say. Because ultimately it isn't any of their business anymore, much as they wish the otherwise.

With the UK fisheries fleet so greatly diminished after EEC accession and the CFP was enacted, and then the UK government sued. (3/4 UK boats lost,the money the government was fined used to build the EU fleet that took over the fisheries), there is plenty of opportunity for EU boats to get fishing lisences in the UK until our own fleet recovers.

Also there will be an opportunity for our fish stocks to be left unfished and in a well earned recovery period.

Stevlin · May 24, 2020, 08:28:23 PM

~~Quote from: GerryT post_id=25883 time=1590334143 user_id=61~~
This is true, no guarantee. But the wording about say fisheries was to agree quotas no if a deal should be considered, by July and not at some later date. It would be disingenuous to say the EU quota would be zero. The exact wording as below,

73. Within the context of the overall economic partnership the Parties should establish a new fisheries agreement on, inter alia, access to waters and quota shares.

74. The Parties will use their best endeavours to conclude and ratify their new fisheries agreement by 1 July 2020 in order for it to be in place in time to be used for determining fishing opportunities for the first year after the transition period.

Well what is it that you don't understand about agreeing quotas? When/IF the UK/EU do agree on quotas, and THEN the UK renege on the deal, only THEN can your fatuous claim of Boris breaking his word be truly claimed.

This is why Macron is repeatedly parroting that EU ACCESS to UK fishing territories MUST be part of any agreed EU/UK trade agreement.

Stevlin · May 24, 2020, 08:12:21 PM

~~Quote from: GerryT post_id=25757 time=1590307966 user_id=61~~
So you'r either saying

The UK negotiators agreed with the eu a number of items that would form the direction of future trade talks, including fisheries and level playing field. But they were doing a Cumming's and telling a load of porkie pies

Or

Your source of info leads you to believe that the UK never agreed to any of this, even when presented with the document the UK govt agreed to.

The reason your confused is that the UK Govr have for decades said and done one thing when dealing with the EU representing you by the way. And then saying something totally different when making announcements domestically. Level playing field, fisheries and a host of other good stuff is nothing new in these proceedings, it's why the UK Govt agreed the political declaration, well Johnson the brexit saviour did.

You keep talking text book, sovereign states have control, but what your missing is what your Johnson govt is doing with that control, we will see what johnson the convicted liar will do, hope it's not anything like the way hes backing Cummings the "I can go where I like when presenting symptoms" teflon advisor.

Just further evidence of your innate inability to think straight. As has been pointed out to you, items on an agenda for discussion are exactly that....and that is the ONLY associated promise....as I have told you, IF they were promises, the the UK would have been taken to court on the fishing rights...

Of course Johnson is, just like Junkers, known for 'lying'....sorry , stretching the truth, but what the hell do you expect? That trait is part and parcel of a politician's make up.

However, YOU don't have that excuse to fall back on....so maybe you can illustrate that you were not telling a lie when you claimed that Johnson was a 'convicted' liar...

papasmurf · May 24, 2020, 08:08:44 PM

~~Quote from: Baff post_id=25954 time=1590347013 user_id=121~~
Nice.

Must be hot down there.

Only 16 centigrade.

Baff · May 24, 2020, 08:03:33 PM

Nice.

Must be hot down there.

papasmurf · May 24, 2020, 08:02:13 PM

~~Quote from: Baff post_id=25952 time=1590346846 user_id=121~~
Are you livng in France?

No, Cornwall.