General Brexit discussion thread

[Borchester]

Aye it is going to be interesting to see what pressure a biden admininstration levers on the uk regarding brexit and the northern irish border.

I did wonder when someone  would bring it up on here.......its been doing the rounds on the interwebby the last few days.English remainers , irish nationalists , europeans etc etc all chucking their two pennies worth in and having a giggle.

Brexiters meanwhile seem to think the best policy is to ignore and wait the time out ....what is it 7 weeks or just over now?

Im wondering if eventually we will see a border poll to determine what happens in the 6 counties? All other scenarios are extremely problematic for the uk government , and although the british wont like losing this old toy they never play with but dont want anyone else to have , if northern ireland is allowd to stay in the eu , then i would imgaine its a scenario that the snp fervently hopes will happen as it demolishes the argument it was a uk vote so the whole uk must leave.

If the tories try and stitchh up the english brexiter , meanwhile , they know they are in deep trouble at the next election. No one will trust them over brexit ever again , and i doubt there will be any second chances.

Rock and a hard place it seems.

Quite, although I am not so sure about how sentimental most Brits are about Ulster. Maybe the best solution would be to wrap the place up in a bearskin and give it to Nancy Pelosi. It would be a bit tough on the old girl but that is politics.

[Nick]

Even the government admits, in parliament, that the IM bill breaks the NIP.

Don't agree, it's like charging someone with murder just cause they own a gun.

[BeElBeeBub]

Wishful thinking on your part.

That this seems to have been an agreement that both opposing sides have claimed opposing visions on.... has resulted in the UK clarifying their position with the UK Internal Market Bill.

There is no longer any such uncertainty.
You now know.


The consequences.
Will the EU now withdraw from the WA in the light of this?
No.


The Internal Market Bill will pass before Biden takes office.
Nor has the UK ever bowed to American support of the IRA.
Politely asked or impolitely militarily aided.

Biden is hardly going to be the first IRA loving US president we've had to deal with.

There is no "opposing vision" the text of the NIP is explicit.

Even the government admits, in parliament, that the IM bill breaks the NIP.

Of course in the international sphere what matters is who you can convince that your interpretation is correct.

Russia can claim Crimea all it likes but that doesn't stop Europe and the US slapping sanctions on them.

As for consequences....apart from any prospect of a US/UK agreement dying for the foreseeable, the EU would be extremely pissed off

Whilst they may be a goal in itself for some there are numerous ways the EU can make life uncomfortable for the UK.

The only area of the WA that is protected from "retaliation" is citizens rights.

But we can kiss goodbye to Gibraltar.  Any chaos in Ireland will harden the resolve to make Irish reuinification offical EU policy

At the more long term end, the simplest solution for the EU is to encourage the breakup of the UK (after all the Brextremists have called for exactly 5hat with the EU). Besides Irish reunification, there is alot the EU can do to make Scottish and even Welsh independence more palatable for their respective populations.

Then there is commercial aviation, policing, defense procurement the list goes on.

[Baff]

The UK's sovereign parliament agreed to put up a border in the Irish sea for the sake of the EU.

It was an integral part of Johnson's WA. His agreeing to this was the reason he managed to get a WA in the first place.

The fact you didn't read the small print or listen to those who told you what it meant isn't important.

Ignorance is no defence.

Wishful thinking on your part.

That this seems to have been an agreement that both opposing sides have claimed opposing visions on.... has resulted in the UK clarifying their position with the UK Internal Market Bill.

There is no longer any such uncertainty.
You now know.


The consequences.
Will the EU now withdraw from the WA in the light of this?
No.


The Internal Market Bill will pass before Biden takes office.
Nor has the UK ever bowed to American support of the IRA.
Politely asked or impolitely militarily aided.

Biden is hardly going to be the first IRA loving US president we've had to deal with.

[Baff]

Hasn't Boris said in not so many words that he'll renege on Brexit if Biden gets elected? 

No, but many EU supporters have said it for him.
Boringly.

[Baff]

WAS being the operative word. The change to domestic legislation deliberately trumped that.
There will be no trade agreement with the US. Biden has already mooted that. That will be his right from Jan 20th.

The 59th Presidential Inauguration and Swearing-In ceremony is expected to take place on January 20th, 2021 in Washington, D.C. on the West front of the Unites States Capitol.

A trade agreement is expected.
Biden is up for one and as president, he won't be the one taking the decision.
Republicans in the House will.

Biden is a lame duck.

[Nick]

What it cannot do is undo international agreements without consequence.

Which part of international law has the UK undone to date?

[Sheepy]

Joe is busy call back later
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/us-election-results-joe-biden-131000252.html

[Sheepy]

I'd forgotten why I normally ignore you.

Simple because, I know exactly what you are at. It ain't rocket science, you have been at it for 5 years.

[BeElBeeBub]

LOL a change of tune beelblubber, you sure you ain't a politician? I bet before I have written this you will be back where you started.

I'd forgotten why I normally ignore you.

[BeElBeeBub]

WAS being the operative word. The change to domestic legislation deliberately trumped that.
There will be no trade agreement with the US. Biden has already mooted that. That will be his right from Jan 20th.

The 59th Presidential Inauguration and Swearing-In ceremony is expected to take place on January 20th, 2021 in Washington, D.C. on the West front of the Unites States Capitol.

That's correct.

Parliament is sovereign and can undo any domestic legislation it likes.

What it cannot do is undo international agreements without consequence.

If the consequence of the UK not doing what it said it would do is the Irish border can no longer operate substantially as it does now and that negatively affects the peace process you can expect the US to blame the UK with all that entails.

I suspect a Biden adminstration will directly ask the UK to remove the offending parts of the IM bill and reaffirm it's commitment to the GFA by following the NI protocol to the letter.

The UK will then have to weigh up the pros and cons of ignoring a (no doubt politely worded) direct request from the US.

[Sheepy]

oh my sweet summer child.

If you're hanging your hopes on Boris Johnson not breaking a solemn promise there's a bunch of people who have bad news for you ......

LOL a change of tune beelblubber, you sure you ain't a politician? I bet before I have written this you will be back where you started.

[BeElBeeBub]

I suspect you are full of bullshit Beelblubber as usual.

Go an look up the dates of the current parliament and the WA act.

The WA was unambiguously voted for by the current parliament

[BeElBeeBub]

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2020-08-13/irish-sea-trade-border-over-my-dead-body-says-johnson

oh my sweet summer child.

If you're hanging your hopes on Boris Johnson not breaking a solemn promise there's a bunch of people who have bad news for you ......

[Sheepy]

Boris Johnson has said there will be a trade border down the Irish Sea "over my dead body" following Brexit.

Come on Sheepy, he's still waiting for someone to pull him out of the ditch. He's not a Conservative, I've discovered, and he's not to be trusted, ever.

Well there you are, his own words, not beelblubbers.