General Brexit discussion thread

[Baff]

Trade is an exchange of goods and services.

If I trade you more goods and services than I get back in return, I am trading at a loss.

I trade you my £5 for your £4 and I have made a £1 loss.

Each time I trade with you I will become £1 poorer and you will become £1 richer.
I will have a trade deficit with you.


The system taken as a whole is more complex.
Some people trade profitably with the EU while others do not.
Taken in aggregate "we", as a nation, do not.


If going to work every day costs me £1.
All I have to do to become £1 a day richer, is stop going to work.
I do not want a job for having a job's sake. It is not a luxury I am willing to pay for.




The bulk of UK services sold into the the EU member countries are not sold under EU auspices.
They are unaffected by our EU membership or lack of it.

There is very little free trade in services in the EU.
So we have exchanged opening our market for their primary exports, goods, in exchange for them not opening their markets to our primary exports, services.

Creating an institutionalised trade deficit. By EU regulation.
We need our own independent regulations to end this.


Further to this, by harmonising our regualtions and standards with the EU to exclude trade with other nations, we  make paying for our trade deficit to the EU by trading elsewhere much, much harder.

We need to harmonise with the other markets as a higher priority.
The ones we do make a profit in.
Not the ones we subsidise. Those ones we need to "de-harmonise" with.


Being a massive loss making market is much worse than being a tiny loss making market.
Losses should be minimised not maximised.
The rest of the world is a bigger market, more profitable and with more potential. Let us take this oportunity to further align with it.

[GerryT]

We make a loss on trading with the EU.
A profit most everywhere else.

We have a deficit with the EU..
We have to significantly increase trade with non EU countries to pay for our trade in the EU as EU members.

How do you make out the UK makes a loss trading with the EU. This sounds like "they need us more than we need them"

I'm guessing your refering to the fact the uK buys more than sells to the EU, if so saying the UK makes a loss is ridiculous.  Everything you sell into the EU you make a profit on, it creates jobs and brings wealth into the UK.Without those sales you loose all that. The product you buy in is obviously cheaper or not available in the UK, again that's helping. It may cost some jobs as people might buy "EU" and not domestic manufactured product. But that is off set by the UK having a massive EU market, aligned in standards and regulations, making trading seamless. The UK has flourished as part of the EU, it's services sector will be hard hit post brexit.

[Baff]

We have a word for those people getting rich at everyone else's expense.
It is "corrupt".

You may wish to side with them. You may feel yourself to be one of them.
We do not.


JIT.
I have worked in JIT.
There is no JIT issue with non EU trade.

Most JIT supply chains come from both within and without the EU at the same time.

If customs clearance for non EU suppliers take 3 days longer, you simply order it 3 days earlier.
If supply from the EU will take longer in future, we will simply order it earlier in future.

[papasmurf]

We don't want an FTA with the EU.

You may not, but those who trade with the EU and will be crossing the border multiple times to keep Just In Time manufacturing efficient, and those export live shellfish and fresh fish need an FTA or go out of business.

[Baff]

I don't think there will be a reduction of available choice.

EU foods will still be available if you are willing to pay a few % more.
Just as spices will be cheaper by the same.

In fact if we de regulate there will be more choice.
New York steak for example.

Chlorinated chicken if you prefer.

A bottle of French may cost 50p more than a bottle of Australian, but it will still be available to you.

However you may find your shopping habits adjust to take advantage of cheaper prices.


There is no shortage of food producers world wide.
No shortage of places we can buy produce from.

The bottom position is WTO, trade deals improves the trading relationship by any combination of reducing tariffs and quotas or removing barriers by aligning standards or possibly agreeing recognition of qualifications. All these barriers cost money for ordinary people, to say the EU has only a small number of FTA's twists the truth. All Eu trade deals improve trading, from FTA's, SAA's, AA's etc... they all reduce costs.
The UK has as you say about 20 deals, this represents about 8% of UK export trade so alot of those deals are small.

Exports are more important, it brings money and jobs into your country. Imports sends money out and can cost lost jobs. The tariffs the UK will see on exports are out of your control, and can be high in certain sectors. Automotive tariffs in the EU are 10%, if a UK car being exported gets a 10% rise that doesn't equate to a 10% drop in sales, it could wipe out an industry. Your underplaying the importance of trade deals, WTO is bottom of the bucket, it's why no country i the world (bar 1) trade only on WTO.

We don't want an FTA with the EU.
FTA's typically happen between large economies and small economies.
Not two large economies as they have too many competing industries.

I want an FTA with Jamiaca.
They sell us rum and bananas, we sell them cars, machine tools, oil, TV's, ships etc.
There is no conflict of interest. No reason to tariff or protect.

With the EU I am happy to lower trade barriers on an equal value of trade, assuming it does not threaten any UK critical industries.  There is room to make trade deals with the EU for mutual benefit, but an FTA is not a good idea, sorry.
It's been a total F up thus far.
Got us into deficit. Made us a loss.


The other extreme is to force a free trade agrement on countries that can't outproduce you.
We famously did this to the Chinese until they revolted against us.

Industiralised food producers get FTA's with African countries, and the net result is famine. As the local food producers in Africa go bust in the glut years in Europe and America. And then in the sparse years on America and Europe, they no longer have the domestic farms to make up the shortfall. Mass starvation ensues.

Critical industries must be protected.
Free trade is not an absolute goal.
There is a time and a place for it.

When you have the cheapest goods for sale you want it.
When you are being outcompeted, you do not.

So the EU wants free trade in goods but not services.
It outcompetes us in goods, but not services.

And like the muppets they are... our economic genius' in office agreed to this.
Screwing us all for their own personal gain. A better paid EU job.
(Or perhaps some perceived ideological gain).

The EU has been an economic disaster for us.
Those who tell you different are out of power now. Good riddance. Not a moment too soon.

[Baff]

Thanks for the correction.

It wasn't a correction — your figures are correct. It's a coincidence that both sets of figures have a 43% portion.

My point was that if there's no deal with the EU, UK will have to significantly expand its exports to non EU countries if it is to pay for the food and other imports it cannot produce itself. This is not going to be easy without new trade deals...

We make a loss on trading with the EU.
A profit most everywhere else.

We have a deficit with the EU..
We have to significantly increase trade with non EU countries to pay for our trade in the EU as EU members.

This deficit is instutitionalised under the EU. We have an FTA with them on goods.
We need trade barriers against the EU to address this.


So yes, you are correct.
We must significanlty increase our exports to non EU countries.
(And/or significantly reduce our imports from the EU).
Which is why we are prioritising our trade deals accordingly.

[Sheepy]

^^^ 

Remainers (2015 ) " i know. Lets hold a referendum on europe and put this brexit nonsense to bed once and for all. #brimming with overconfidence#

Brexiters "ok "

2016 referendum Leave 52%   remain 48%

Remainers "oooooh eeerr , no you can't leave , you won that wasnt fair!"

Brexiters "lets get on with it please"

Remainers "but you can't leave ..........doom gloom fire death and floods"

Brexiters " lets implement the result please"

Remainers " ok lets have an election."

Brexiters "ok " # both main parties stand on a brexit ticket and are overwhelmingly endorsed by brexiters#

Remainers " parliament is sovereign and it has changed its mind. You can't leave"

Brexiters " but we won the referendum and both main parties promised to implement the result"

#two long years of more fighting#

Remainers "doom gloom fire and flood"

Brexiters "ok lets have another election to sort out the log jam of anti democrats in parliament"

Remainers "ok , this time the silent remain majority will win!"

G.E 2019 - brexiters win landslide.

Remainers # tumbleweed#

Coronavirus interrupts proceedings...

August 2020 , 18 weeks till brexit

Remainers "you can't leave fire flood doom gloom death and destruction"

Brexiters......



Remainers " did you hear me? We can't leave ! Doom gloom death fire destruction!"




....and on it goes.

My point was that if there's no deal with the EU, UK will have to significantly expand its exports to non EU countries if it is to pay for the food and other imports it cannot produce itself. This is not going to be easy without new trade deals...

They have a new tactic, try and bore us to death instead.

[papasmurf]

Was that from Carrie Simonds 

No it wasn't, but the rumour has gained enough ground for 10 Downing Street to deny it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/dominic-cummings-father-in-law-boris-johnson-will-resign-february-2020-8?r=US&IR=T

[GerryT]

Like a lion stalking zebras, he's picked one from the pack and is getting ready to pounce, hopefully for the UK (and everyone else) Trump is gone soon.

There are rumours Boris will be gone in six months.

Was that from Carrie Simonds 

[papasmurf]

Like a lion stalking zebras, he's picked one from the pack and is getting ready to pounce, hopefully for the UK (and everyone else) Trump is gone soon.

There are rumours Boris will be gone in six months.

[GerryT]

Your underplaying the importance of trade deals, WTO is bottom of the bucket, it's why no country i the world (bar 1) trade only on WTO.

Very much the bottom of the bucket with Trump effectively in charge of the dispute resolution process.

The way things are going we might be lucky not to have to deal with Trump much longer, but of he does survive that's really bad news for the UK. Look at his record, he's tearing up trade deals and breaking up trade groups, TPP, China even the EU. Even WTO he's frustrating the dispute process, deliberately. He was cheering on Johnson re Brexit, i'm sure he was delighted hoping that the EU might falter. His idea of trade is break everything and the stomp over everything. He doesn't like the idea of what the EU has done and what the TPP was doing. Strength in numbers and all that.
Like a lion stalking zebras, he's picked one from the pack and is getting ready to pounce, hopefully for the UK (and everyone else) Trump is gone soon.

[papasmurf]

Your underplaying the importance of trade deals, WTO is bottom of the bucket, it's why no country i the world (bar 1) trade only on WTO.

Very much the bottom of the bucket with Trump effectively in charge of the dispute resolution process.

[GerryT]

I don't think there will be a reduction of available choice.

EU foods will still be available if you are willing to pay a few % more.
Just as spices will be cheaper by the same.

In fact if we de regulate there will be more choice.
New York steak for example.

Chlorinated chicken if you prefer.

A bottle of French may cost 50p more than a bottle of Australian, but it will still be available to you.

However you may find your shopping habits adjust to take advantage of cheaper prices.


There is no shortage of food producers world wide.
No shortage of places we can buy produce from.

The bottom position is WTO, trade deals improves the trading relationship by any combination of reducing tariffs and quotas or removing barriers by aligning standards or possibly agreeing recognition of qualifications. All these barriers cost money for ordinary people, to say the EU has only a small number of FTA's twists the truth. All Eu trade deals improve trading, from FTA's, SAA's, AA's etc... they all reduce costs.
The UK has as you say about 20 deals, this represents about 8% of UK export trade so alot of those deals are small.

Exports are more important, it brings money and jobs into your country. Imports sends money out and can cost lost jobs. The tariffs the UK will see on exports are out of your control, and can be high in certain sectors. Automotive tariffs in the EU are 10%, if a UK car being exported gets a 10% rise that doesn't equate to a 10% drop in sales, it could wipe out an industry. Your underplaying the importance of trade deals, WTO is bottom of the bucket, it's why no country i the world (bar 1) trade only on WTO.   

[Thomas]

^^^ 

Remainers (2015 ) " i know. Lets hold a referendum on europe and put this brexit nonsense to bed once and for all. #brimming with overconfidence#

Brexiters "ok "

2016 referendum Leave 52%   remain 48%

Remainers "oooooh eeerr , no you can't leave , you won that wasnt fair!"

Brexiters "lets get on with it please"

Remainers "but you can't leave ..........doom gloom fire death and floods"

Brexiters " lets implement the result please"

Remainers " ok lets have an election."

Brexiters "ok " # both main parties stand on a brexit ticket and are overwhelmingly endorsed by brexiters#

Remainers " parliament is sovereign and it has changed its mind. You can't leave"

Brexiters " but we won the referendum and both main parties promised to implement the result"

#two long years of more fighting#

Remainers "doom gloom fire and flood"

Brexiters "ok lets have another election to sort out the log jam of anti democrats in parliament"

Remainers "ok , this time the silent remain majority will win!"

G.E 2019 - brexiters win landslide.

Remainers # tumbleweed#

Coronavirus interrupts proceedings...

August 2020 , 18 weeks till brexit

Remainers "you can't leave fire flood doom gloom death and destruction"

Brexiters......



Remainers " did you hear me? We can't leave ! Doom gloom death fire destruction!"




....and on it goes.

My point was that if there's no deal with the EU, UK will have to significantly expand its exports to non EU countries if it is to pay for the food and other imports it cannot produce itself. This is not going to be easy without new trade deals...

[patman post]

Thanks for the correction.

It wasn't a correction — your figures are correct. It's a coincidence that both sets of figures have a 43% portion.

My point was that if there's no deal with the EU, UK will have to significantly expand its exports to non EU countries if it is to pay for the food and other imports it cannot produce itself. This is not going to be easy without new trade deals...