General Brexit discussion thread

[Baff]

Oh dear are you going to be in for a shock.

Yes, the record investment we have experienced since voting to leave and the thousands of financial sector jobs that just moved from Europe to London is quite shocking to some, I suppose.

But broadly speaking exactly what I expected to happen.

Basing in the EU doesn't passport you into London markets anymore.
And investing in the EU doesn't look like it's going to get you free trade with Treasure Island either.

[Thomas]

Oh dear are you going to be in for a shock.

[papasmurf]

The UK published it's WTO schedule about 6 months ago.

The vast bulk of UK financial trade around the world is done without passporting rights.
None of Londons competition for global finance has EU passporting rights either. Or indeed passporting rights to any other country.
It's not a concern.

EU businesses will simply have to register in the UK same as every other countries do.

Oh dear are you going to be in for a shock.

[Jaydee]

14% of loads = loads.
50% of f**k all = f**k all.

The UK published it's WTO schedule about 6 months ago.

The vast bulk of UK financial trade around the world is done without passporting rights.
None of Londons competition for global finance has EU passporting rights either. Or indeed passporting rights to any other country.
It's not a concern.

EU businesses will simply have to register in the UK same as every other countries do.

Yeh that is why the pantomime toff has moved his assets to Ireland.  And why John Redwood the part time politician has advised his customers to move their assets to the EU.  And the world needs England more than England needs the world.  And Andrew Neil according to you is talking fanny.  And you got it right

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-john-redwood-tory-mp-investors-withdraw-money-uk-economy-city-london-eu-a8056771.html

[Baff]

14% of loads = loads.
50% of F@@@ all = F@@@ all.

The UK published it's WTO schedule about 6 months ago.

The vast bulk of UK financial trade around the world is done without passporting rights.
None of Londons competition for global finance has EU passporting rights either. Or indeed passporting rights to any other country.
It's not a concern.

EU businesses will simply have to register in the UK same as every other countries do.

[Jaydee]

And EU banks are transfering 3 times the number of staff to the UK than the UK is losing to the EU.

As big as the financial service industry is in the EU, it is utterly dwarfed by Londons.
The UK is not just at the centre of the EU financial services, it is at the centre of the worlds financial services.

Let me quote the  reality from the experts.  And I suggest you start to understand. What is trade and what is not trade.  Passporting  is not trade.  What it is.  Is part of the negotiations.  And on a no deal the UK will lose passporting rights, and have no schedule of concession to trade under WTO rules.  Two separate issues.  Since 1975 that schedule has been dealt with by the EU for its members. When Liam Fox tried to  get that Schedule.  It was rejected by more than than a dozen  countries.  And all 164 countries in the WTO have to agree.  One of those was the USofA. The UK cannot even agree with 27.  Let me repeat the UK will protect its members.  Let me add.  The UK is one country.  With 5,476 UK firms scattered over 27 countries with passporting rights.  .   The EU is 27 countries with some 8000 firms from those 27 countries operating separately in the UK with passporting rights. That is about 300 per country in the EU and 5,476 from the UK.    What are you not grasping.

In November 2018 a report by the Financial Conduct Authority, the key independent public authority that regulates finance in the UK, indicated that 5,476 UK firms have passports to carry out business operations in the EEA. Additionally, it noted that approximately 8,008 EEA firms have passports to carry out business operations in the UK. When the UK leaves the EU and the EEA, these passporting rights will cease to apply. The effect for both EEA and UK firms is that banks, companies or financial services firms could lose the ability to carry out cross border business operations. Therefore, the loss of these passporting rights would create a number of operational risks and could lead to a fragmented market because of the fact that both UK and EEA firms would no longer be able to utilize the same pool of liquidity.

On a more practical scale, the loss of passporting rights means that EEA firms based in the UK would effectively have to move out of the financial hub of London in order to continue to carry out their business transactions. Furthermore, these EEA firms would have to find a different city to effectively carry out said business operations. Some European cities, including Madrid, Paris or Dublin are already attracting these firms as new possible locations.

As for the UK firms based in the EEA, there are already EU legislation and regimes that allow third countries to offer a limited number of services in the EU. However, these regimes are considered less secure than the passporting scheme, even if accepted by the EU as being equivalent to their standards. In any case, the UK´s ability to provide financial services in the EEA would depend on whether this equivalence is granted.

Whilst the UK is yet to depart the EU formally, it is clear that the loss of passporting rights poses a challenge to London's status as the financial hub of the world. At the same time, a growing need to incorporate these businesses in EU countries is arising.

European countries will not destroy their financial service industry's by allowing us free trade in this. This will never happen.
Even when we said we would leave the EU if they didn't, they still wouldn't.
And making empty promises to us that it will... has become tiresome.
We are no longer fooled by these dangled carrots that are not on offer.

Let me give you but one example.  Germany sells one in seven of its cars to the UK.  A market of around 60 million. That is 14% of its sales.  The UK sell around 50% of its cars to the EU.  And most of those are made and owned by foreign manufacturers.  In short.  Other nations.  Such as Nissan. It is now known that Theresa May bribed Nissan to stay. How long will that last.  When the market of 450 million the third largest population in the world.  Is threatened.  You tell me.  And by the way.  If the UK does a no trade deal with one nation in the EU.  Then they have to do the same with all nations. Listen very carefully to the first link. And watch a total knob end, with the same ability of Big Kranky Bojo, who thinks he is a expert being ripped apart.  Then you tell Andrew Neil, not exactly a left wing socialist.  He has it wrong.   What are you not grasping.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHse_CmO4gU&ab_channel=BBCNewsnight
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/fury-over-60m-government-brexit-bung-for-nissan-after-firm-cancels-car-project
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nissan-brexit-deal-eu-uk-japan-cars-ministers-theresa-may-a8763121.html

[Baff]

You have a spectacular way to look at a bucket of crap and see a nice bucket.  The financial service market in the EU is enormous, the UK services a fair chunk of this, without passporting this see's thousands of jobs and money moving out of London. JP Morgan alone is transferring 180b and 200 jobs from UK to EU. Yes EU companies will do likewise to continue servicing their customers in the UK but many of them have business in the UK and the UK domestic market is far smaller than the EU. What your failing to recognise is the UK is the centre for the vast majority of EU financial services, so in a hard brexit it's the UK that looses out the most.

And EU banks are transfering 3 times the number of staff to the UK than the UK is losing to the EU.

As big as the financial service industry is in the EU, it is utterly dwarfed by Londons.
The UK is not just at the centre of the EU financial services, it is at the centre of the worlds financial services.

Much as the EU would like to be the centre of that global trade itself, it isn't.
No matter how much it fancies itself.


What it pays to remember in these discussions is that in the EU, there is no single market in financial services. Only goods and some services.

That the bulk of UK financial services sold into the EU are not covered by the auspices of the EU.
They remain unaffected by our either our continued EU membership or by our leaving it.

This is the fabled holy grail of EU membership
To get unfettered access to the EU markets for our financial services.
They promised it from day one and never delivered.

In Davids Camerons negotiations for continued membership in the EU, the one we voted on in the referendum, this point was made absolutely clear.

The reality is, neither inside the EU nor outside, will the EU countries ever give us free trade in services.
And the reason for this is simple. Economies of scale.
Because our service companies are the biggest they can offer lower rates and higher returns than every single domestic EU industry.
They would wipe them all out in the very first year.
(You car insurance would be cheaper with a British insurer, and so a critical mass of you would switch).


European countries will not destroy their financial service industry's by allowing us free trade in this. This will never happen.
Even when we said we would leave the EU if they didn't, they still wouldn't.
And making empty promises to us that it will... has become tiresome.
We are no longer fooled by these dangled carrots that are not on offer.

[Sheepy]

Well if you wait long enough, JD, you might get some trickle down from those banking types, well when you have worked the debt mountain off they created maybe. Which Robroy was only writing about earlier.

[Jaydee]

You have a spectacular way to look at a bucket of crap and see a nice bucket.  The financial service market in the EU is enormous, the UK services a fair chunk of this, without passporting this see's thousands of jobs and money moving out of London. JP Morgan alone is transferring 180b and 200 jobs from UK to EU. Yes EU companies will do likewise to continue servicing their customers in the UK but many of them have business in the UK and the UK domestic market is far smaller than the EU. What your failing to recognise is the UK is the centre for the vast majority of EU financial services, so in a hard brexit it's the UK that looses out the most.

I think the technical expression is.  Talking to a brick wall.  Banking and services make up 80% of the UK economy.  And you would have thought that by now,  the they need us more than we need them utter moronic crap spewing from the government bile ministers,  and that the German car industry is going to come riding over the hill at sunset and save the UK from a fate worst than life.  Would have by now dawned, it is just that.  Moronic crap and bile. Even on the village idiot.

[GerryT]

Where is the downside?

The business is all centred in London.
EU passporting means loads of EU companies registering here that didn't used to have to.

You have a spectacular way to look at a bucket of crap and see a nice bucket.  The financial service market in the EU is enormous, the UK services a fair chunk of this, without passporting this see's thousands of jobs and money moving out of London. JP Morgan alone is transferring 180b and 200 jobs from UK to EU. Yes EU companies will do likewise to continue servicing their customers in the UK but many of them have business in the UK and the UK domestic market is far smaller than the EU. What your failing to recognise is the UK is the centre for the vast majority of EU financial services, so in a hard brexit it's the UK that looses out the most.

[Baff]

Where is the downside?

The business is all centred in London.
EU passporting means loads of EU companies registering here that didn't used to have to.

[GerryT]

What is worrying me is the total lack of comment about passported transactions post Brexit from the Government. It it will effect private individuals who have any financial dealings with Europe.
I am about to carry out some forward planning due to the total lack of official comment about it.

I read something that the EU was extending passporting to the end of 2022, but it might be restricted to currency transactions, the article wasn't 100$ clear. This is being done to allow the EU make sure that while the business is being transferred back into the EU that no EU business is negatively affected. But on the down side this was a clear message that passporting will end and there is no doubt about that.

[Barry]

Michael Gove explained the benefits of Brexit this week in Parliament, in case you missed it.

Taking back control of borders with a points based system of immigration.
Making our own laws and regulations.
A British regulatory framework will be able to better exploit the fourth industrial revolution and avoid EU protectionism.
Controlling trade policy, leading to new and better agreements such as the Japan FTA and joining the CPTPP.
An independent sanctions and human rights regime separate to and more progressive than the EU's.
Taking back control of fishing waters and exclusive economic zone.
Replacing the wasteful anti-environmental Common Agricultural Policy.
More accountable political system. Direct Parliamentary accountability. Politicians no longer hiding behind EU rules.
A new state aid regime that is responsive and in keeping with free market principles, but also that support the agenda of levelling up.
New freeports.
Taking back control of the £20 billion currently controlled by the EU every year to spend on UK priorities instead.

[Jaydee]

Having been a database admin for Barclays, and about to become one again for a new UK bank, I too know a little about the banking sector, and I was there to witness Brown's delightful handling of the economy all the way to the bitter end when they posted hobby bobbies on the motorway bridges near the site in case any of us jumped on the way hone with our P45's (seriously, I gave two quite a scare).

What I find interesting in your post is your setting up the argument FOR the passporting as if you were a dyed in the wool remainer which is quickly followed by your denunciation of the financial sector for the damage it bestowed upon the UK, and indeed the global, economy when it tanked in 2008, and which it is about to do again of couerse courtesy of the corona pox.

So, what are you saying ? Are you putting the remainers case that a britain outside the passporting system is kissing goodnight to billions, or denouncing the invention of fiat money, the abandonment of the gold standard and brown's utter folly, or what ??

Let me put it this way.  The UK has a £2.4 trillion debt.  Yes that really is £2.413,000,000,000 and rising at over £5,000 per second. That is £39,000 for every man woman and child in the Uk or £70,000 per tax payer.  That is the state of the economy.  And as I have just said. If anyone believes the UK economy is otherwise than in the manure heap.  Really needs to go and see somebody. The UK is about to do a exit from the EU without a schedule of concession which it will need to do trade.  On top of the real fact that the UK will lose passporting rights.  Make no mistake the EU will protect its members.  That utter incompetent clown big Kranky Bojo, does not have a clue what he is doing. What I am saying is that Scotland can no longer afford bankrupt England, both morally and economically, purse string pulled by Westminster.  They simply cannot live within their means.  The figures speak for themselves.  And it is time Scotland  extracted itself from the UK.  Then the Scots can  make a decision to either go back into or not go back into the EU.  Not have it dictated to them.   And Britain has already kissed goodbye to billions. It has now cost more on Brexit.  Than it has contributed over the last 40 odd years.  If you read the link I gave.   By the way I would settle for FFA.  The John Swinney version.  Not the George Osborne version

[papasmurf]

So, what are you saying ? Are you putting the remainers case that a britain outside the passporting system is kissing goodnight to billions, or denouncing the invention of fiat money, the abandonment of the gold standard and brown's utter folly, or what ??

What is worrying me is the total lack of comment about passported transactions post Brexit from the Government. It it will effect private individuals who have any financial dealings with Europe.
I am about to carry out some forward planning due to the total lack of official comment about it.