General Brexit discussion thread

[patman post]

Probably plenty of goods besides bicycles that could be peddled across the channel. But I don't see much US spec beef being moooved from Northern Ireland to the Republic, or wrangled from Gib into Spain.
Though if it did happen, it could be a barter deal in exchange for much needed GOH's...

[BeElBeeBub]

Surely the question should be: would anyone bother with moving container of bikes from NI to Amsterdam?
It would be a bit like shipping rice to China — there are so many bicycle manufacturers and importers already in the EU. Even quality cycle accessories and components are already available. There'd have to be a following for UK manufactures similar to that for Dr Marten's for such shipments to be worthwhile...

In case you haven't noticed demand for bikes across Europe is sky high at the moment.

You can get 500 bikes in a shipping container.

Say they're €500 each in bulk.

That's an import value of €250,000.

At a 40% tariff that's €100,000 in tax avoided.

That's why people might want to ship bikes or other items.

But it's not just tariffs.

Say the UK decides to allow cheaper US spec beef.

How do you check that US spec beef isn't moving across the border?

[patman post]

How do you stop a container of bikes moving from NI to Amsterdam?

Surely the question should be: would anyone bother with moving container of bikes from NI to Amsterdam?
It would be a bit like shipping rice to China — there are so many bicycle manufacturers and importers already in the EU. Even quality cycle accessories and components are already available. There'd have to be a following for UK manufactures similar to that for Dr Marten's for such shipments to be worthwhile...

[BeElBeeBub]

Or not as the case may be.

If the EU sends a gunboat to attack British shipping Boris will throw up his hands in delight and declare war on the EU, which will provide a massive boost to his declining popularity. The EU know that so everyone will just huff and puff and wait for the fuss to blow over.

Gunboats? Really?

A border in the Irish sea is what the UK agreed to.

It was Johnson's concession of May's red line that allowed the WA to be struck.

If the UK doesn't implement what it agreed to the EU won't need gunboats.

Simply treating the UK as a 3rd country with no agreements will probably suffice. How long do you think the UK could keep going with the channel ports enforcing the full suite of regulations?

Of course that's exactly what you want.

Hope you like inflation.

I can't help imagining daily hordes of hikers in Lycra — who had previously cycled across the other way as members of newly-formed cycling clubs — making regular crossings of the border to return home after selling their bikes on the other side...

That's the point, it won't be the odd cyclist, it will be containers of bikes worth thousands of € moving from NI to RoI to hop across to Europe.

How do you stop a container of bikes moving from NI to Amsterdam?

[patman post]

Take tariffs.

If bikes have a 40% tariff into the EU and the UK has 0% any shipment of bikes between NI and RoI would need to pay a 40% tariff.

That will require some form of physical control to stop bikes being imported to NI on 0% tariff then smuggled into RoI (and potentially Europe) thus avoiding EU tariffs. Look up garlic smuggling for a real world example.

I can't help imagining daily hordes of hikers in Lycra — who had previously cycled across the other way as members of newly-formed cycling clubs — making regular crossings of the border to return home after selling their bikes on the other side...

[Borchester]

In effect NI remains under the control of the UK but the UK agrees to implement the EU regulations required to keep the border "as is".  That inevitable means there will be checks in the irish sea.

Or not as the case may be.

If the EU sends a gunboat to attack British shipping Boris will throw up his hands in delight and declare war on the EU, which will provide a massive boost to his declining popularity. The EU know that so everyone will just huff and puff and wait for the fuss to blow over.

[BeElBeeBub]

There is an existing border.
Between N and S Ireland.

yes and that border is "open" because of a web of agreements that synchronise things like tariffs, standards etc on both sides.

You can drive between the two areas with no requirements for *physical* checks.

The UK agreed that NI would align with the EU's requirements to the extent required to render physical restrictions unnecessary.

Take tariffs.

If bikes have a 40% tariff into the EU and the UK has 0% any shipment of bikes between NI and RoI would need to pay a 40% tariff.

That will require some form of physical control to stop bikes being imported to NI on 0% tariff then smuggled into RoI (and potentially Europe) thus avoiding EU tariffs. Look up garlic smuggling for a real world example.

The only way to avoid the possibility of smuggling (and thus the need for physical checks) is to make sure the checks are applied on entry to NI. 

In effect NI remains under the control of the UK but the UK agrees to implement the EU regulations required to keep the border "as is".  That inevitable means there will be checks in the irish sea.

This was the system that Johnson agreed to and fought his election on. This was the system that (sovereign) Parliament voted into law.

We can break that agreement, but it will make co-operation with the EU very difficult.  In fact sticking to our agreement is likely to be a precondition of any future agreements.

[T00ts]

Maybe we could set the border between England and Scotland? From my experience of folk on both sides of the border they would probably say yeah well, there is a lot of it about and just go about their business as before.

But the Irish like to make a fuss over most everything.

I blame the leprechauns.

[Borchester]

Yes, it is business as usual for them on the Irish border.

Maybe we could set the border between England and Scotland? From my experience of folk on both sides of the border they would probably say yeah well, there is a lot of it about and just go about their business as before.

But the Irish like to make a fuss over most everything.

[Baff]

The smugglers and people traffickers will jump for joy if that is what happens.

Yes, it is business as usual for them on the Irish border.

[Baff]

What part of where two regulatory alignment meets in the EU it requires a trade border.

There is an existing border.
Between N and S Ireland.

Your "requirement" comes pre met.

The UK has submitted a formal request to the EU to establish border checkpoints in Northern Irish ports as part of post-Brexit arrangements.

Wrong way round.
The EU asked the UK to establish customs houses on it's behalf.
The UK has agreed to.

Goods crossing the border to SI, via NI, will be pre-inspected at these two customs houses.

[Baff]

Baffy , hard border is a vague , meaningless and often misued term. It could mean anything from a militarised border with fences all around northern ireland , to anything however small that impedes the all ireland economy depending on the viewpoint.

Also you keep offering this up as a simple binary decision to be made either by or with both the republic and the uk. There will be many factors involved in that decision , not least of which will be the good people of northern ireland themself first and foremost. They voted to remain in the eu , and that fact might be dismissed by you , but wont be discounted by the uk government in its desperate efforts to keep the uk together.

Secondly if the eu tell the republic to jump , or the yanks russians and china tell the uk to jump , then the answer wont be feck off , it will be how high.

As ever in this whole brexit debate , its phoney war antics and vague meaningless hysteria and crystal ball gazing about what "might " happen.

We will  soon see after the next 8 weeks.

In the case of Ireland, a "hard border" will not mean militarised although many people will exploit that term imply that it does. To play on the fear of a return to one cynically.

What it means is border posts. Customs checkpoints, passport control.


Will S Ireland continually to jump for the EU? Not indefinetely no.
The EU is about to royally screw S Ireland.
Their willingness to play along is going to be reducing rapidly.

[cromwell]

No matey and you are of on tangents again. With more  weasel words.  I said and I repeat.  What part of where two regulatory alignment meets in the EU it requires a trade border. Can you not grasp.  You said there will be no border.  That is what you said. There has always been one in Ireland since 1923. Consequently the dividing line between these two parts of the island of Ireland became a international border.  And on Brexit the EU left it to the UK government how it would work. At first the backstop.  On 17 October 2019, a revised withdrawal agreement that replaced the backstop with a new protocol was agreed by the EU leaders and Big Kraky Bojo the world leading muppet. That idiotic despotic world beating buffoon, and another one of his world beating oven ready deals,  did not know what he signed and now  welching on the deal.   And Biden has left him in no doubt. That is what it has to do with your rant of a strawman argument, and Big kranky Bojo. And pointless going over it again with you. . You are on a new chapter of the Emperor's Clothes. And still in denial.

The Common travel area is a separate issue. Nothing to do with the EU.  And the red line of those entering the UK without passport control,  according to that muppet Bojo.  .  The present fanny coming from that absolute clown.  The UK has submitted a formal request to the EU to establish border checkpoints in Northern Irish ports as part of post-Brexit arrangements.  One way or another there will be border checks between the two regulatory alignments. The one at present is down the Irish sea. Compliment of the world beating muppet.  One thing is for sure.  Under no circumstances will the EU allow that muppet to import chlorinated chicken and the like from America. Your wesel words are another pathetic attempt to divert.  Rather than admit you are 100% wrong. You are the one with the strawman argument. You really do not have a clue.  Do you. And swallowed the fanny,  hook line and sinker from the clowns in Number 10. Are you in denial that England is going into lockdown as well.  That is what Raab and Gove were ranting with strawman arguments on Friday.

Mod Notice
Big Kranky Bojo,fanny,emperors new clothes,you don't have a clue it's like listening to a record that's stuck and then the insults.
Final warning you're in the last chance saloon clean up your act or you are out.

[Jaydee]

What has Boris got to do with it?

You said the EU will build a border, not interested in your other Strawman points.

No matey and you are of on tangents again. With more  weasel words.  I said and I repeat.  What part of where two regulatory alignment meets in the EU it requires a trade border. Can you not grasp.  You said there will be no border.  That is what you said. There has always been one in Ireland since 1923. Consequently the dividing line between these two parts of the island of Ireland became a international border.  And on Brexit the EU left it to the UK government how it would work. At first the backstop.  On 17 October 2019, a revised withdrawal agreement that replaced the backstop with a new protocol was agreed by the EU leaders and Big Kraky Bojo the world leading muppet. That idiotic despotic world beating buffoon, and another one of his world beating oven ready deals,  did not know what he signed and now  welching on the deal.   And Biden has left him in no doubt. That is what it has to do with your rant of a strawman argument, and Big kranky Bojo. And pointless going over it again with you. . You are on a new chapter of the Emperor's Clothes. And still in denial.

The Common travel area is a separate issue. Nothing to do with the EU.  And the red line of those entering the UK without passport control,  according to that muppet Bojo.  .  The present fanny coming from that absolute clown.  The UK has submitted a formal request to the EU to establish border checkpoints in Northern Irish ports as part of post-Brexit arrangements.  One way or another there will be border checks between the two regulatory alignments. The one at present is down the Irish sea. Compliment of the world beating muppet.  One thing is for sure.  Under no circumstances will the EU allow that muppet to import chlorinated chicken and the like from America. Your wesel words are another pathetic attempt to divert.  Rather than admit you are 100% wrong. You are the one with the strawman argument. You really do not have a clue.  Do you. And swallowed the fanny,  hook line and sinker from the clowns in Number 10. Are you in denial that England is going into lockdown as well.  That is what Raab and Gove were ranting with strawman arguments on Friday.

[papasmurf]

What has Boris got to do with it?

A question many people are asking. He appears to be Cumming's puppet.