YouGov 53% YES

[Nick]

The difficulty with what you are saying is that we had an election in December and the SNP romped home.

The SNP got 45% share of the vote, so using your logic you will get 45% in another referendum as 55% voted for parties not campaigning on leave.

[srb7677]

On the radio yesterday and SNP minister stated that the 47% - 53% recent poll was a massive majority. It was based on 1,147 people, that's 607 people. The UK EU referendum had a majority of 1.3 million but is stated by all the Europhiles on here as a tiny majority. Funny that isn't it.

You are clearly struggling to recognise the difference between a poll and a vote. In a vote, everyone gets to vote. In a poll only a representative sample is asked.

But though 53% is a definite majority, it is only marginally larger than the 52% in favour of Brexit UK-wide, and much smaller than the 62% who opposed Brexit in Scotland. I don't think it yet constitutes a massive majority.

[srb7677]

Although there have been exceptions, the majority of the time opinion polling does tend to reflect actual outcomes fairly accurately. If a succession of polls from different polling companies are saying broadly the same thing, we need to sit up and listen because they are telling us something real most likely, however much the naysayers want to deny it.

[morayloon]

It has been very quiet in thissubforum recently so I thought I'd just mention the latest Scottish Opinion Poll. The last 3 have put YES in the lead. However they were all from Panelbase. The Times, which uses YouGov, published their latest offering this week and it confirms the Panelbase findings.
Could this be the real thing? Are we getting closer to our ultimate goal? Who knows, For now I'll accept that things are going our way!!!  https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/l0arqcm4ea/TimesResults_200810_ScotlandV2_W.pdf

This could be the same as the USA, classic Trumpism. Someone knocks on your door and asks who you're voting for, average American will not admit they are voting for Trump: Too Radical, wall, guns, blah blah blah.
Same in Scotland, can't be bothered with the crap from republicans so agree they will vote for freedom on the doorstep.

Figures mean jack shit.

The difficulty with what you are saying is that we had an election in December and the SNP romped home. It is therefore not surprising that support for the Nationalists is still rising.
The same can be said of support for Independence which is running higher than the SNP vote.
The constitutional Question is too important to play about with Pollsters. Anyway, there is no door knocking as all 12 polls were conducted online.
As I said in my last post, figures mean a lot when they are repeated time and again

[Borchester]

Maybe you are.

But the world in general has seen a movement to telling pollsters one thing, and doing something quite different in the poll booth.

Whether those seeking to blow the explosive bolts on Scotland are among that playful cohort is something only the real referendum would reveal.

I  don't know about other countries but I do know that when you get a series of Opinion Polls, from different companies, showing a significant movement in support for Independence, you can be sure that they have picked up on a change within the Scottish electorate. One Poll displaying such a result would be put down as an outlier,  several polls is a different kettle of fish.
There have been 12 Independence Polls so far this year and all have been positive. 2 did show No in the lead - but only by 1%. 2 resulted in level pegging and YES was in front in 8. Significantly the last 6 have had YES in the lead.
The usual Pollsters - Panelbase & YouGov - were joined in a recent poll by ComRes which also showed the gap in favour of YES.
The political parties also commission Polls for internal use and you can rest assured those are displaying the same message. Why else has Boris & Co started coming to Scotland? They are trying to raise the Union profile, extolling the positives(?) of being in the UK. The only thing is that they fly in, do a few stops at local factores etc but, the important factor, is that they don't meet any of the pubic.

Actually, I think that you will find that Boris is rather fond of meeting the pubic. And he ain't too bad when it comes to handling the public either. That said I wish you well, but feel that you might have trouble turning opinion polls into votes.

[morayloon]

Maybe you are.

But the world in general has seen a movement to telling pollsters one thing, and doing something quite different in the poll booth.

Whether those seeking to blow the explosive bolts on Scotland are among that playful cohort is something only the real referendum would reveal.

I  don't know about other countries but I do know that when you get a series of Opinion Polls, from different companies, showing a significant movement in support for Independence, you can be sure that they have picked up on a change within the Scottish electorate. One Poll displaying such a result would be put down as an outlier,  several polls is a different kettle of fish.
There have been 12 Independence Polls so far this year and all have been positive. 2 did show No in the lead - but only by 1%. 2 resulted in level pegging and YES was in front in 8. Significantly the last 6 have had YES in the lead.
The usual Pollsters - Panelbase & YouGov - were joined in a recent poll by ComRes which also showed the gap in favour of YES.
The political parties also commission Polls for internal use and you can rest assured those are displaying the same message. Why else has Boris & Co started coming to Scotland? They are trying to raise the Union profile, extolling the positives(?) of being in the UK. The only thing is that they fly in, do a few stops at local factores etc but, the important factor, is that they don't meet any of the pubic.

[Nick]

On the radio yesterday and SNP minister stated that the 47% - 53% recent poll was a massive majority. It was based on 1,147 people, that's 607 people. The UK EU referendum had a majority of 1.3 million but is stated by all the Europhiles on here as a tiny majority. Funny that isn't it.

[morayloon]

It has been very quiet in thissubforum recently so I thought I'd just mention the latest Scottish Opinion Poll. The last 3 have put YES in the lead. However they were all from Panelbase. The Times, which uses YouGov, published their latest offering this week and it confirms the Panelbase findings.
Could this be the real thing? Are we getting closer to our ultimate goal? Who knows, For now I'll accept that things are going our way!!!  https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/l0arqcm4ea/TimesResults_200810_ScotlandV2_W.pdf

This could be the same as the USA, classic Trumpism. Someone knocks on your door and asks who you're voting for, average American will not admit they are voting for Trump: Too Radical, wall, guns, blah blah blah

No one knocked on any doors ... it was an online poll.

Same in Scotland, can't be bothered with the crap from republicans so agree they will vote for freedom on the doorstep

45% of the electorate voted to end the Union. Given all that has been going on since Brexit when we voted overwhelmingly to stay, it is little wonder the polls are showing Independence steaming ahead

F

igures mean jack shit

The figures show that over 50% of Scots favour Scotland becoming an Independent country. There is the inbuilt 'warning' that there is a 3% margin of error and the resullt is as stated 95% of the time. Nobody is saying tht Polls are spot on but they are taken notice of. Why, for instance, are UK Govt. ministers are regularly coming North? Their own party polling is showing a similar trend. They are running scared.

[papasmurf]

You need a smurf ornament with a gun in its hand saying "trespassers will be shot - take seriously"

[Borg Refinery]

Someone knocks on your door

If that happens to me it will mean they have ignored the notice on the door, and will get a very angry response.

You need a smurf ornament with a gun in its hand saying "trespassers will be shot - take seriously"

[papasmurf]

You dont do the Peoples Post Code Lottery then .

No I don't.

[Streetwalker]

Someone knocks on your door

If that happens to me it will mean they have ignored the notice on the door, and will get a very angry response.

You dont do the Peoples Post Code Lottery then .

[Thomas]

It has been very quiet in thissubforum recently so I thought I'd just mention the latest Scottish Opinion Poll. The last 3 have put YES in the lead. However they were all from Panelbase. The Times, which uses YouGov, published their latest offering this week and it confirms the Panelbase findings.
Could this be the real thing? Are we getting closer to our ultimate goal? Who knows, For now I'll accept that things are going our way!!!  https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/l0arqcm4ea/TimesResults_200810_ScotlandV2_W.pdf

This could be the same as the USA, classic Trumpism. Someone knocks on your door and asks who you're voting for, average American will not admit they are voting for Trump: Too Radical, wall, guns, blah blah blah.

Same in Scotland, can't be bothered with the crap from republicans so agree they will vote for freedom on the doorstep.

Figures mean jack shit.

The "shy no voter" trope. 

About the only part of your post that makes any sense to me is tha last line of which i agree.

[papasmurf]

Someone knocks on your door

If that happens to me it will mean they have ignored the notice on the door, and will get a very angry response.

[Nick]

It has been very quiet in thissubforum recently so I thought I'd just mention the latest Scottish Opinion Poll. The last 3 have put YES in the lead. However they were all from Panelbase. The Times, which uses YouGov, published their latest offering this week and it confirms the Panelbase findings.
Could this be the real thing? Are we getting closer to our ultimate goal? Who knows, For now I'll accept that things are going our way!!!  https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/l0arqcm4ea/TimesResults_200810_ScotlandV2_W.pdf

This could be the same as the USA, classic Trumpism. Someone knocks on your door and asks who you're voting for, average American will not admit they are voting for Trump: Too Radical, wall, guns, blah blah blah.

Same in Scotland, can't be bothered with the crap from republicans so agree they will vote for freedom on the doorstep.

Figures mean jack shit.