FT: Bojo to override WA

Started by Dynamis, September 07, 2020, 04:20:38 AM

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0 Members and 13 Guests are viewing this topic.

Sheepy

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 07, 2020, 03:02:27 PM
Quote from: Baff on September 07, 2020, 02:54:53 PM
Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 07, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
In all seriousness.

The impact of reneging on the WA on the UK's ability to make future agreements is not zero, but it also unlikely to be catastrophic.

However, the impact on the EU's future negotiations with other countries if they capitulate to the UK reneging would be very bad for them.

"If you don't like a deal you've made with the EU just ignore the bits that are domestically inconvenient, and they will give you what you want" is probably not something the EU wants gaining traction.

So as a negotiating tactic I can't see this having any major effect.  If the UK does go through with it, then I expect the EU will simply withdraw co-operation beyond the minimum specified in the WA and wait for the UK to come back to the table.

"no deal is better than a bad deal" is more true for the EU than the UK.

With the carrot of a good trade deal removed, the goals of the UK signing this WA are much reduced.
No reason to stick with a treaty that does not deliver as intended.

In short, if it becomes clear that the EU already has withdrawn co-operation. The UK will reciprocate in kind.
The WA stipulated the NI protocol applied even if no trade deal was agreed.

Reneging on the WA, especially one agreed less than a year ago by the current PM, who campaigned to sign it (without extended scrutiny) will make the chances of agreeing a deal with the EU even smaller.

Everything hinges on how much the EU trust the UK.

The more you trust someone, the less you need binding legal stuff.

If I my best mate want's to borrow my car or use my workshop, I just toss him the keys because I trust him to do the right ting and not take the P

If someone has repeatedly broken their word, bad mouthed me and been aggressive,  I won't budge until I have air tight legal safeguards in place on what they can and cannot do with my car/workshop.

There probably was a time when the UK could have got away with much looser agreements with the EU.  That time has passed and if we start playing silly buggers now, all the slack will be gone.
Feck the EU and feck everyone who spits on the graves of all those who gave their lives for democracy.
Just because I don't say anything, it doesn't mean I haven't noticed!

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Baff on September 07, 2020, 02:54:53 PM
Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 07, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
In all seriousness.

The impact of reneging on the WA on the UK's ability to make future agreements is not zero, but it also unlikely to be catastrophic.

However, the impact on the EU's future negotiations with other countries if they capitulate to the UK reneging would be very bad for them.

"If you don't like a deal you've made with the EU just ignore the bits that are domestically inconvenient, and they will give you what you want" is probably not something the EU wants gaining traction.

So as a negotiating tactic I can't see this having any major effect.  If the UK does go through with it, then I expect the EU will simply withdraw co-operation beyond the minimum specified in the WA and wait for the UK to come back to the table.

"no deal is better than a bad deal" is more true for the EU than the UK.

With the carrot of a good trade deal removed, the goals of the UK signing this WA are much reduced.
No reason to stick with a treaty that does not deliver as intended.

In short, if it becomes clear that the EU already has withdrawn co-operation. The UK will reciprocate in kind.
The WA stipulated the NI protocol applied even if no trade deal was agreed.

Reneging on the WA, especially one agreed less than a year ago by the current PM, who campaigned to sign it (without extended scrutiny) will make the chances of agreeing a deal with the EU even smaller.

Everything hinges on how much the EU trust the UK.

The more you trust someone, the less you need binding legal stuff.

If I my best mate want's to borrow my car or use my workshop, I just toss him the keys because I trust him to do the right ting and not take the P

If someone has repeatedly broken their word, bad mouthed me and been aggressive,  I won't budge until I have air tight legal safeguards in place on what they can and cannot do with my car/workshop.

There probably was a time when the UK could have got away with much looser agreements with the EU.  That time has passed and if we start playing silly buggers now, all the slack will be gone.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: T00ts on September 07, 2020, 02:26:59 PMThere are times when you almost make me feel sorry for the EU - note to self - Don't be taken in.
It's not the EU I feel sorry for, they're big boys they can handle themselves.

I worry the idiots we've put in charge in the UK will come out with a sub optimal agreement after a painful break at the end of the year because they can't think further than tomorrow's headlines.

Think on this, is the government who cocked up the CV response and the exam results really going to pull this off? or will they go 3 for 3 on the unnecessary cock up front?


Baff

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 07, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
In all seriousness.

The impact of reneging on the WA on the UK's ability to make future agreements is not zero, but it also unlikely to be catastrophic.

However, the impact on the EU's future negotiations with other countries if they capitulate to the UK reneging would be very bad for them.

"If you don't like a deal you've made with the EU just ignore the bits that are domestically inconvenient, and they will give you what you want" is probably not something the EU wants gaining traction.

So as a negotiating tactic I can't see this having any major effect.  If the UK does go through with it, then I expect the EU will simply withdraw co-operation beyond the minimum specified in the WA and wait for the UK to come back to the table.

"no deal is better than a bad deal" is more true for the EU than the UK.

With the carrot of a good trade deal removed, the goals of the UK signing this WA are much reduced.
No reason to stick with a treaty that does not deliver as intended.

In short, if it becomes clear that the EU already has withdrawn co-operation. The UK will reciprocate in kind.

Sheepy

Quote from: T00ts on September 07, 2020, 02:42:22 PM
One thing is for sure, if we hit rock bottom there is only one way and that's up.
Democracy don't come easy, it is a tough path, we certainly won't be throwing our hands up in surrender, you can bet on that. So can the Tories.
Just because I don't say anything, it doesn't mean I haven't noticed!

T00ts

One thing is for sure, if we hit rock bottom there is only one way and that's up.

Nick

Quote from: Thomas on September 07, 2020, 12:53:26 PM
Quote from: Borchester on September 07, 2020, 12:51:43 PM
I don't care. I just want out.


...and that is what is sending them absolutely feckin wild borkie.........no matter what they say you still want out.

Expect the hysteria to rise over the coming weeks.

Ive been telling them for years we don't care about a short term hit, we just want out.

As you say, they can't get their head round it.
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

T00ts

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 07, 2020, 02:23:40 PM
In all seriousness.

The impact of reneging on the WA on the UK's ability to make future agreements is not zero, but it also unlikely to be catastrophic.

However, the impact on the EU's future negotiations with other countries if they capitulate to the UK reneging would be very bad for them.

"If you don't like a deal you've made with the EU just ignore the bits that are domestically inconvenient, and they will give you what you want" is probably not something the EU wants gaining traction.

So as a negotiating tactic I can't see this having any major effect.  If the UK does go through with it, then I expect the EU will simply withdraw co-operation beyond the minimum specified in the WA and wait for the UK to come back to the table.

"no deal is better than a bad deal" is more true for the EU than the UK.

There are times when you almost make me feel sorry for the EU - note to self - Don't be taken in.

papasmurf

Quote from: Good old on September 07, 2020, 02:21:32 PM
Either way it will be what they deserve. Pity about the rest, because there is no reverse that would compare to the original deal.

I don't mind the rabid Brexiteers getting what they deserve it is the collateral damage to all the millions of innocent victims I worry about.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

BeElBeeBub

In all seriousness.

The impact of reneging on the WA on the UK's ability to make future agreements is not zero, but it also unlikely to be catastrophic.

However, the impact on the EU's future negotiations with other countries if they capitulate to the UK reneging would be very bad for them.

"If you don't like a deal you've made with the EU just ignore the bits that are domestically inconvenient, and they will give you what you want" is probably not something the EU wants gaining traction.

So as a negotiating tactic I can't see this having any major effect.  If the UK does go through with it, then I expect the EU will simply withdraw co-operation beyond the minimum specified in the WA and wait for the UK to come back to the table.

"no deal is better than a bad deal" is more true for the EU than the UK.

Good old

Quote from: papasmurf on September 07, 2020, 01:48:27 PM
Quote from: Borchester on September 07, 2020, 12:51:43 PM


Nor I. We have had just about forever with Remainers patting us on the head and warning that if we leave then the sky will fall in and knicker elastic will cost an extra penny. I don't care. I just want out.

Even if you end up with the backside hanging out of your trousers, sitting on the pavement with mongrel dog on a string and a begging bowl in front of you?


Nothings changed though, for the dedicated as they really wanted it , the horizon is constant sunshine.  Worrying about what they may or may not have done doesn't come into it for them.. Of course millions were for it ,just not dedicated otherwise there would be no talk of deals. Either way it will be what they deserve. Pity about the rest, because there is no reverse that would compare to the original deal. 


papasmurf

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 07, 2020, 02:16:48 PM


So how can you justify tearing up an agreement that was "voted for by the people"?

Ask Bojo-The-Clown.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Borchester on September 07, 2020, 12:51:43 PMNor I. We have had just about forever with Remainers patting us on the head and warning that if we leave then the sky will fall in and knicker elastic will cost an extra penny. I don't care. I just want out.
We've already left mate. You won, get over it.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: johnofgwent on September 07, 2020, 08:41:33 AM
Fact: No Parliament may bind the hand of a future parliament.

There is a damn good reason why this is the case. Those expecting deviation from that precedent need to be committed to an asylum.
correct.
it should be noted that this WA was voted for by the *current* parliament.

If you cast your mind back, signing the WA (aka the "oven ready deal") was the center piece of the conservative's manifesto for the 2019 GE.

As we are never allowed to forget, that GE yielded an 80 seat majority for Johnson, and is often pointed to as proof that signing the WA was "voted for by the people"

So how can you justify tearing up an agreement that was "voted for by the people"?

Sheepy

Quote from: papasmurf on September 07, 2020, 01:48:27 PM
Quote from: Borchester on September 07, 2020, 12:51:43 PM


Nor I. We have had just about forever with Remainers patting us on the head and warning that if we leave then the sky will fall in and knicker elastic will cost an extra penny. I don't care. I just want out.

Even if you end up with the backside hanging out of your trousers, sitting on the pavement with mongrel dog on a string and a begging bowl in front of you?
You should try your best not to take anything trolls say seriously. No matter how poorly they behave, remember these people spend countless unproductive hours trying to make people mad. They're not worth your time of day.
Just because I don't say anything, it doesn't mean I haven't noticed!