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Facts about Covid-19

Started by Barry, September 08, 2020, 10:21:59 AM

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Sheepy

I caught the millennium bug and never got over it, where do I claim?
Just because I don't say anything, it doesn't mean I haven't noticed!

DeppityDawg

Quote from: Good old on September 10, 2020, 01:57:45 PMI cannot see how the present position of the country regarding  its ability to get back to something approaching normal
is all the fault of Liberals, or even remainers

I think you're confusing the definition of liberal - liberals aren't necessarily of the "liberal party" variety, or even left wing (although most are, and are remainers - I'm a remainer and even I fecking hate them). There are "liberal" Tories (Ken Clark or Theresa May variety) - liberal to me means those who always adopt the soft approach to everything - the least line of resistance

Don't get me wrong, the current government is ultimately responsible for our response to the Coronavirus crises. And they've royally fecked it up from the word go. Virtually everything they've touched has gone tits up

Streetwalker

Quote from: DeppityDawg on September 10, 2020, 12:26:08 PM
Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 10:21:59 AMhttps://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

So stop panicking.

Not much chance of that. Funny how all the usual suspects (you know who they are), the ones predicting the end of the world as we know it (to which the REM song was posted in tribute), trillions of dead on a biblical scale, and complete and total lockdown of society being the only option to save humankind, were almost to a man the same posters who forecast the same apocalyptic doom that would result from Brexit. Not much talk about Sweden now is there?

Now that it can be seen they were so fecking wrong, do you suppose we'll see an acknowledgement of this, when what many of us predicted would happen to the economy is coming true daily with ever more damage? I never thought I'd see so called 'liberals' treat the young and the low paid, those people who work in travel, leisure and High Street retail, with such crass contempt. But they did, and they are still doing it

Get the fecking country back to work, before there isn't an economy left to go back to

Totally agree DD . But as someone who has had the 'sniffles' please,  be careful out there

Borg Refinery

Quote from: DeppityDawg on September 10, 2020, 12:26:08 PM
Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 10:21:59 AMhttps://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

So stop panicking.

Not much chance of that. Funny how all the usual suspects (you know who they are), the ones predicting the end of the world as we know it (to which the REM song was posted in tribute), trillions of dead on a biblical scale, and complete and total lockdown of society being the only option to save humankind, were almost to a man the same posters who forecast the same apocalyptic doom that would result from Brexit. Not much talk about Sweden now is there?

Now that it can be seen they were so fecking wrong, do you suppose we'll see an acknowledgement of this, when what many of us predicted would happen to the economy is coming true daily with ever more damage? I never thought I'd see so called 'liberals' treat the young and the low paid, those people who work in travel, leisure and High Street retail, with such crass contempt. But they did, and they are still doing it

Get the fecking country back to work, before there isn't an economy left to go back to

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/
+++

Borchester

Quote from: DeppityDawg on September 10, 2020, 12:26:08 PM
Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 10:21:59 AMhttps://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

So stop panicking.

Not much chance of that. Funny how all the usual suspects (you know who they are), the ones predicting the end of the world as we know it (to which the REM song was posted in tribute), trillions of dead on a biblical scale, and complete and total lockdown of society being the only option to save humankind, were almost to a man the same posters who forecast the same apocalyptic doom that would result from Brexit. Not much talk about Sweden now is there?

Now that it can be seen they were so fecking wrong, do you suppose we'll see an acknowledgement of this, when what many of us predicted would happen to the economy is coming true daily with ever more damage? I never thought I'd see so called 'liberals' treat the young and the low paid, those people who work in travel, leisure and High Street retail, with such crass contempt. But they did, and they are still doing it

Get the fecking country back to work, before there isn't an economy left to go back to

No good talking to me. After the referendum I starved to death and have only been resurrected long enough to drown when the UK sinks beneath waves when we finally leave the EU in the New Year.

I think I have caught a bout of this bug during the year and if I ain't I seem to have caught most everything else. Herself decided that I am a disgusting old git and the best solution  was that I should spend as much time as possible on my allotment, coughing and farting and enjoying myself with all the other old gits. It seems to have worked and I thought of suggesting the remedy to the NHS but there is an element of good chher in it so they could never approve. 
Algerie Francais !

Good old

Quote from: DeppityDawg on September 10, 2020, 12:26:08 PM
Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 10:21:59 AMhttps://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

So stop panicking.

Not much chance of that. Funny how all the usual suspects (you know who they are), the ones predicting the end of the world as we know it (to which the REM song was posted in tribute), trillions of dead on a biblical scale, and complete and total lockdown of society being the only option to save humankind, were almost to a man the same posters who forecast the same apocalyptic doom that would result from Brexit. Not much talk about Sweden now is there?

Now that it can be seen they were so fecking wrong, do you suppose we'll see an acknowledgement of this, when what many of us predicted would happen to the economy is coming true daily with ever more damage? I never thought I'd see so called 'liberals' treat the young and the low paid, those people who work in travel, leisure and High Street retail, with such crass contempt. But they did, and they are still doing it

Get the fecking country back to work, before there isn't an economy left to go back to


I cannot see how the present position of the country regarding  its ability to get back to something approaching normal
is all the fault of Liberals, or even remainers.  Unless this government are Liberal, and not  a brexit inspired administration.
The government are setting the pace here, its them that have dithered ,and changed course, and failed to motivate.
Yes you will always get people who object ,disagree ,with  strategy set by government . But a clear strategy for getting the country back to work and ticking over again is missing ,and that's because there isn't one. I don't think that the failures in this area are guided by anything much beyond the lethal nature of COVID.

papasmurf

Quote from: DeppityDawg on September 10, 2020, 12:26:08 PM


Get the fecking country back to work, before there isn't an economy left to go back to

If there was 100% compliance with the regulation the country could have gone back to work months ago.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

DeppityDawg

Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 10:21:59 AMhttps://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

So stop panicking.

Not much chance of that. Funny how all the usual suspects (you know who they are), the ones predicting the end of the world as we know it (to which the REM song was posted in tribute), trillions of dead on a biblical scale, and complete and total lockdown of society being the only option to save humankind, were almost to a man the same posters who forecast the same apocalyptic doom that would result from Brexit. Not much talk about Sweden now is there?

Now that it can be seen they were so fecking wrong, do you suppose we'll see an acknowledgement of this, when what many of us predicted would happen to the economy is coming true daily with ever more damage? I never thought I'd see so called 'liberals' treat the young and the low paid, those people who work in travel, leisure and High Street retail, with such crass contempt. But they did, and they are still doing it

Get the fecking country back to work, before there isn't an economy left to go back to





HDQQ

Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 06:16:50 PMIt would appear that the virus is likely to go through the schools like a dose of salts this autumn. However, the kids are not at risk, it is the grandparents at greater risk and the vulnerable.
I don't know how many times I have to say this, the virus has a kill rate of less than 1 per thousand. It will kill the elderly and vulnerable, so if we have another lock-down it will just delay the inevitable. There may be a vaccine next year, there may not.
The government can't nanny us all. We know the risks and we can take our own decisions. I prefer to live life with risks than have a living death.

One in a thousand might sound a small number but when it comes to older people, that figure is much higher, while among younger people it would be much lower.

It's not just the deaths though, think of the much larger number of covid-19 survivors who have been seriously ill, possibly requiring critical care. And even among those who are not seriouslly ill, a lot have had debilitating and frightening symptoms and it's becoming increasingly apparent that it's not uncommon to have chronic fatique symptoms for months after getting covi-19. All these are things that most people would not want to experience and we still don't know whether the virus reduces people's resistance to other infections like seasonal flu in the long term.
Formerly known as Hyperduck Quack Quack.
I might not be an expert but I do know enough to correct you when you're wrong!

Sheepy

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 09, 2020, 06:22:37 PM
Quote from: Sheepy on September 09, 2020, 05:15:49 PMI can't lie to you beelbug, people are going to die, just like every other day then, nobody don't live forever
That's not really adressing the point.

The chance of death once infected is (overall) about 1 in 100. That is 10x greater than Barry claimed.

Yes, people die every day, mostly of heart failure (around 450 out of 15,000 - rounded).  But during the peak, which was deaths of people who caught it in mid March, Covid was the biggest killer in the UK by far.  Over 1k deaths a day. If you use excess deaths as the measure, CV was killing more people than everything else put together.

We are all going to die someday, but that doesn't mean we should avoid trying to die today.
Facts about the Chinese sniffles beelbug, that was what was asked about.
Just because I don't say anything, it doesn't mean I haven't noticed!

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Sheepy on September 09, 2020, 05:15:49 PMI can't lie to you beelbug, people are going to die, just like every other day then, nobody don't live forever
That's not really adressing the point.

The chance of death once infected is (overall) about 1 in 100. That is 10x greater than Barry claimed.

Yes, people die every day, mostly of heart failure (around 450 out of 15,000 - rounded).  But during the peak, which was deaths of people who caught it in mid March, Covid was the biggest killer in the UK by far.  Over 1k deaths a day. If you use excess deaths as the measure, CV was killing more people than everything else put together.

We are all going to die someday, but that doesn't mean we should avoid trying to die today.

Sheepy

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on September 09, 2020, 04:01:14 PM
Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 06:16:50 PMthe virus has a kill rate of less than 1 per thousand.
it's more than that.

We've had around 65k excess deaths in the UK already.

If the IFR was 1 in 1k, that would mean around 65m (i.e. the entire popualtion of the UK) would have to have caught it already.

Even if you take the government's figures of 40k that would still mean 40m people or 2/3 of the population would have to have had it.

The ONS estimates around 3m people have had it which gives an IFR of 40k/3,000k or 1.3% with the usual age related caveat.
I can't lie to you beelbug, people are going to die, just like every other day then, nobody don't live forever.
Just because I don't say anything, it doesn't mean I haven't noticed!

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 10:21:59 AM
https://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

So stop panicking.
the article makes a questionable calims

QuoteIn most places, the risk of death for the healthy general population of school and working age is comparable to a daily car ride to work.

What they don't say is the risk in the UK was "(equivalent to the death risk from driving 143-668 miles per day)".  That's considerably more that the average daily car ride to work.

They then claim
QuoteIn countries like the UK (with lockdown) and Sweden (without lockdown), overall mortality since the beginning of the year is in the range of a strong influenza season;

Putting aside the recurring question of "did sweden lockdown?" (answer, it didn't have a mandatory lock down like other countries but they did institute major behavior shifts earlier in their infection cycle), the claim makes the false equivalence between the worst winter flu seasons with minimal mitigation actions (a vaccination program of varying efficiency) and a spring pandemic with major counter actions taken.

After all we have done, all the restrictions, bans and hardships CV still killed as many people in 3 months of spring as the worst winter seasons (where not all deaths are from flu).

That's like saying "As I only broke my ankle parachuting out of a plane, and last year I broke my ankle tripping over a kerb, falling out of a plane with no parachute is no worse than tripping over a kerb"

Finally, note that in the southern hemisphere where flu season would normally be underway, it hasn't really started.  The measures taken to (barely) contain Covid are sufficient to almost completely suppress Influenza so clearly they aren't comparable.

BeElBeeBub

Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 06:16:50 PMthe virus has a kill rate of less than 1 per thousand.
it's more than that.

We've had around 65k excess deaths in the UK already.

If the IFR was 1 in 1k, that would mean around 65m (i.e. the entire popualtion of the UK) would have to have caught it already.

Even if you take the government's figures of 40k that would still mean 40m people or 2/3 of the population would have to have had it.

The ONS estimates around 3m people have had it which gives an IFR of 40k/3,000k or 1.3% with the usual age related caveat.

Good old

Quote from: papasmurf on September 08, 2020, 06:40:40 PM
Quote from: Barry on September 08, 2020, 06:16:50 PM

I don't know how many times I have to say this, the virus has a kill rate of less than 1 per thousand.

The problem is 500000 and rising people who have "recovered," have long term medical problems as a result.

In that respect it mirrors , a war situation, there are always far more wounded than killed . The dead get the headlines, the wounded are thought lucky. And so very often they are far from lucky.