Facts about Covid-19

[DeppityDawg]

I knew the answer straight away. None!

I would have licked them off!

You know by now you should be careful what you say to me 

[T00ts]

I knew the answer straight away. None!

I would have licked them off!

[DeppityDawg]

ah the man who laughs at maths.

Just because you can't do it doesn't mean it isn't important.

Ah, the man who when asked a simple question, hides the simple answer that the threat posed by Coronavirus is vastly over exaggerated hype behind a wall of meaningless figures

Because of course, the simple answer was...

Not a vast number

...or about a 1 in 68,000 chance to an obsessive like you

[BeElBeeBub]

How to keep Beelzebub busy for 53.7 second #28

Kevin's iced bun is 16.4cm long, 7.6cm wide and 5.7cm high. The icing covers approx 64% of the buns surface area and is covered with "hundreds and thousands" at an average density of 73 per square cm

How many "hundreds and thousands" are on Kevins iced bun?

Feck sake

ah the man who laughs at maths.

Just because you can't do it doesn't mean it isn't important.

[DeppityDawg]

How to keep Beelzebub busy for 53.7 second #28

Kevin's iced bun is 16.4cm long, 7.6cm wide and 5.7cm high. The icing covers approx 64% of the buns surface area and is covered with "hundreds and thousands" at an average density of 73 per square cm

How many "hundreds and thousands" are on Kevins iced bun?

Feck sake

[BeElBeeBub]

How many fit and healthy 20-something year olds has coronavirus actually killed then?

Not a vast number.  There was a recent case in the US that comes to mind.  The point is that she was certainly a CV death but would have been missed from the "28 day data".

Nick's point was the 28 day rule meant you could have v.mild CV, get hit by a bus and be counted as "died within 28 days if a CV +ve" - which is true.

The 28 day CV measure is very poor.  It over counts because if the relatively rare cases like Nick's bus victim, but it also undercounts the less rare person (and it doesn't have to be a.28 year old, it could just as easily be a 60 year old) who dies from CV but after 28 days.

This can be tested by comparing the 28 day totals with the more accurate ONS totals for the same period.

Such a comparison shows that despite the odd "bus victim" showing up in the 28 day data it undercounts the true figure.

[papasmurf]

How many fit and healthy 20-something year olds has coronavirus actually killed then?

Give it time, it is mutating in some countries.

[DeppityDawg]

It would also miss the fit and healthy 28 year old who died after 2 months in a coma following heart and lung collapse from CV.

How many fit and healthy 20-something year olds has coronavirus actually killed then?

[Borchester]

It's also worth mentioning that the statisticians I've heard interviewed in recent days have said that they are mainly not relying on the daily test figures released by PHE/NHS as they are "a mess".  They are more relying on extrapolation of other data that's more reliable like hospital admissions, deaths, ONS data and so on.

You also have to crunch a lot of data behind the headline numbers to get meaningful information as there are all sorts of gotchas in the headline number - you have to drill into all the data tables behind and make adjustments.

Well, your statisticians are right when they say that crap data produces crap results, but while not wishing to insult your friends, I find it hard to accept that they believe that any form of extrapolation is anything more than guesswork.

[BeElBeeBub]

Also the fact that a CV-19 death is anyone who had it in the 28 days up to their death.

You had it mildly, got tested positive and on your way out to the pub you get knocked down and killed. Another CV-19 death.

A quick note on this point.

The "28 day rule" is a very quick and dirty way they can get "nightly figures".  It would indeed catch your hypothetical mild CV case hit by a bus.

It would also miss the fit and healthy 28 year old who died after 2 months in a coma following heart and lung collapse from CV.

The gold standard is the ONS death certificate survey which looks at causes of death.

CV is only mentioned on the death certificate if it contributed to death.  So your bus fatality would have died of traumatic head injuries not CV.  On the other hand the 28 year old would have died of heart failure due to complications from CV.

By comparing the number of CV deaths in a given week with the number declared at the time under the 28 day rule, it can be seen the 28 day rule is underestimating the number of deaths.

For example the week 5-11 Sept had 67 "28 day" CV deaths, but 99 deaths where CV was listed.

[Javert]

It's best left to people who can do maths, though, Javert, or you can easily be out by a factor of 10.

This was because in most cases the data is measured per 100,000 so yes it was an error, but, the points I was making still stand.

[Barry]

You also have to crunch a lot of data behind the headline numbers to get meaningful information as there are all sorts of gotchas in the headline number - you have to drill into all the data tables behind and make adjustments.

It's best left to people who can do maths, though, Javert, or you can easily be out by a factor of 10.

[Streetwalker]

The only fact I know about it is that its a bastard virus that I wouldn't wish on anyone . And I had a mild dose ...........

apparently .

Be careful out there

[Javert]

It's also worth mentioning that the statisticians I've heard interviewed in recent days have said that they are mainly not relying on the daily test figures released by PHE/NHS as they are "a mess".  They are more relying on extrapolation of other data that's more reliable like hospital admissions, deaths, ONS data and so on.

You also have to crunch a lot of data behind the headline numbers to get meaningful information as there are all sorts of gotchas in the headline number - you have to drill into all the data tables behind and make adjustments.

[Borg Refinery]

No more dogging for you Borchester.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/matt-hancock-awkwardly-bans-casual-101408452.html

Damn. And I was so looking forward to a traditional Christmas.

You always have the foxes for company.