Facts about Covid-19

[HDQQ]

Risk-taking over covid-19 doesn't have immediate medical consequences, those come over the following days or weeks, if at all.

So it's a bit like a version of Russian Roulette where you agree to let someone else take a one-in six revolver shot at you from 50 metres away at any time during the following two weeks.

[BeElBeeBub]

You quoted yourself. 

No idea what happened there, the quote button must have gotten a bit confused!

[Borg Refinery]

Ah, the man who when asked a simple question, hides the simple answer that the threat posed by Coronavirus is vastly over exaggerated hype behind a wall of meaningless figures

again the point is sailing way over your head.

The 28 day data is underestimating the number of deaths *despite* his (Nick's) valid point about the bus victims.

As for the risk of death to young people.

It is low, it has always been low.

In fact the risk of death to *everyone* equates to an approximate doubling of their risk of dying in the next 12 months.

If you are a young person with a risk of death in the thousands this increment of risk is not that concerning

If your risk is in the 10's it's obviously of more concern

This is putting aside the risk of "long Covid" which seems to be around 5% even in low risk groups (eg young people)

Prof Spiegelhalter puts it well: The risk to individuals isn't large but the risk to society is.

"again the point is sailing way over your head."

You quoted yourself. 

wnonetheless, I'm still certain that localized lockdowns and AI models that track the movement of people are the way forward, which you can do with a surprising degree of accuracy without zn app.

I don't think extreme enforcement of wearing a mask is a great idea and will lead to fights and mass arrests which will actually exacerbate the spread.

I think the scottish semi-vaccine looks very promising and hope it gets rolled out very soon..

[patman post]

Shit data produces shit results.

You could be right — the various reports of Covid sewage analysis from around Europe seem to have dried up...

[Thomas]

So in the "war" against this disease, is it not valid that there are restrictions and impositions in order to make it more likely we prevail?

Sorry but i think your comparison to bombs dropping from the sky in the second world war and restrictions" making it more likely we prevail " as completely over the top emotive nonsesne.

There is a vast bit of difference between leaving a light on in blackout conditions to act as a beacon for german bombers three quarters of a century ago , than to the farcical  often illiogical covid restrictions we are all currently enduring.

This virus is going to go through everyone on this planet one way or the other and every government on this planet knows that fact fine well. Yes we are going to prevail , but some elderly and vulnerable will not sadly make it.

This kind of emotive language you are posting here is doing no one any favours. You are frightening the old and vulnerable , and damaging the confidence of everyone else.

We are being told one minute the virus can live on surfaces for 72 hours, and then the next we are being told  there is no evidence to suggest you can catch the virus from letters and parcels.

You can sit in a pub less than two metres from someone without a facemask , but if you walk to the toilet , you have to wear a fecking facemask.

Its the absolute illogical knee jerk reaction to this virus of governments that is driving people insane. Very soon im my opinion , we are going to reach a mass tippiing point of complete non compliance to these illogical ill thought out covid restrictions.

[BeElBeeBub]

I thought that we decided that in 2 world wars. Yes, it is.

Yet, in the course of winning those wars for liberty, there were restrictions.

I assume you would have obeyed the blackout restrictions. After all, you may well have been willing to risk being blown up by a bomb, but by leaving your lights on you'd be risking your neighbours lives or the vital factory nearby.

So in the "war" against this disease, is it not valid that there are restrictions and impositions in order to make it more likely we prevail?

[papasmurf]

I thought that we decided that in 2 world wars. Yes, it is.

Is it worth your death?

[Barry]

Is liberty worth death as a consequence?

I thought that we decided that in 2 world wars. Yes, it is.

[papasmurf]

What is the difference that would make one an unbearable imposition on individual liberty, and the other a perfectly reasonable public health and manners?

Is liberty worth death as a consequence?

[BeElBeeBub]

The thread was for FACTS about COVID-19, not for strawmen.

But it is a relevent question.

Why is mask wearing such a divisive issue when almost everyone agrees that spitting in the street is bad?

What is the difference that would make one an unbearable imposition on individual liberty, and the other a perfectly reasonable public health and manners?

[Forum admin]

Moderation notice

Off topic posts about Brexit deleted.

[Barry]

One common thread I am seeing from the anti-lockdown brigade is a lack of empathy.

You know bus drivers were disproportionately affected in the early part of the pandemic.

Maybe spending all day driving around selfish old gits who refuse to inconvenience themselves by wearing a mask because they think rules don't apply to them makes you a bit apprehensive.

Quick question for the anti mask gang.

Presumably spitting in the street is 100% ok with them. After all, having to cough into a hankie is a bit of an inconvenience, it's far easier just to spit on the street/bus seat next to me/shop floor and I'm in no danger of catching anything from my own spit!

The thread was for FACTS about COVID-19, not for strawmen.

[Borchester]

Using the word "guesswork" is quite misleading. 

No it ain't. Shit data produces shit results.

Absolutely,, which is why statisticians whose literal job is to study these things have techniques to quantify and deal with uncertainty.

Welly, sort of belly. If the good professor shits in your cornflakes then he may well be able to convince you that it is a bowl of the finest granola. But the fact is, you are still eating shit.

[BeElBeeBub]

I've had another thought at the attempts to slow the infection. If we are concerned now more about the economy it would pay us perhaps to slow down the number of people at home sick and therefore not at work. There was talk at the beginning I seem to remember of as many as a third(?) of the workforce being off sick at a time.

Exactly.

There are a range of measures we can take.  Each one will have an effect on the progression of the virus, the economy, people's mental.health etc.

If we locked down like we initially did for 6 months we could probably eliminate the virus, but our economy would be in ruins and people would be going stir crazy.

The trick is to try to adjust the balance so that the R value is kept below 1 *and* we can do some things.

Do we open pubs or schools? Back in the office or universities, home visits or not wearing masks?

Some measures are very painful with little result. Some are counter productive, some are mild with big results

The trick is picking the right ones.

Question for the anti maskers....

Say a mask was developed that 100% guaranteed the wearer couldn't spread it whilst wearing it.let's assume the effectiveness was beyond question.  The mask was cheap and a out as inconvenient as a surgical.mask

This would offer the possibility of returning to a near normal life as long as a high % of the pop wide a mask as much as possible

Would the anti mask brigade wear them or would they still protest?

[BeElBeeBub]

Using the word "guesswork" is quite misleading. 

No it ain't. Shit data produces shit results.

Absolutely,, which is why statisticians whose literal job is to study these things have techniques to quantify and deal with uncertainty.

Can any statistician predict the next number rolled on a die? No.

But they can tell you it's very unlikely the next 5 rolls will all be "1".  The fact that the next 5 rolls are a "1" doesn't mean they were wrong.