Facts about Covid-19

[Javert]

The document mentioned by Dynamis explains very clearly the maths behind what I posted previously - the nonsense about most of the tests being false positives is based on a misunderstanding of how statistics and maths work - if the people going to be tested are only slightly more likely than the prevalent population to have Covid, the number of false positives is dwarfed by the correct results. 

This should be the case because you are only supposed to get tested if you have symptoms or have been exposed.

This is one of those statistical effects which is actually very hard to get your head around because it seems to defy the often celebrated "common sense".

Also, Covid 19 is only mentioned on a death certificate if the signing doctor believes that it was a contributing factor in the person's death - this is their legal duty.

Scenarios where someone was run over by a bus after testing positive, or run over by an ambulance while having a smoke outside the hospital doors, would be so rare as to be negligable.

Also - even if all these points were true few weeks back (they weren't), how does any of this explain why all indicators are starting to rise exponentially?  It's tracking the changing  rate of tests positives, hostpical admissions and deaths that is the point and they are all increasing.

So yes, the numbers are "wrong" in that they are not 100% accurate to the single case, and there will be false positives and also many more false negatives in there - however, if the numbers are rapidly increasing, there is clearly an issue.

It's also interesting that these same people who are going mad over this now, are not at all interested in the fact that for several months we were immediately releasing everyone who tested negative back into normal circulation even though 20% of people who have covid will test negative.  Even today I see regular posts and comments from people who are clearly unaware that just because their test was negative, does not mean they should stop self isolating if they still have symptoms.

[Borg Refinery]

It's still all bullshit

You mean like when the govt coverd up up to 50% higher death rates?

They are trying to mislead us in every which direction from the truth, with some downplaying it and others exaggerating it, that's the point here.

Why are they not releasing data about recovered patients?

[DeppityDawg]

Will you lot cut it out! Beelbeeb will be getting a fecking hard on!!

[johnofgwent]

It's still all bullshit

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

The above link contains the "daily deaths" statement which at the time i downloaded it 12:34 on 28/9 the latest figure is for 27/9

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-27-September-2020.xlsx

If you download this, you will see it is actually counting the number of patients who died in hospital and for whom a positive test result was obtained, and adding in the numbers who were not tested, but whose death certificate states COVID19 as a factor (despite no positive test)

You could die from the cleaner unplugging the bypass you are on in the middle of a heart transplant and if you had a covid19 positive test result while there you would STILL, TODAY, be a covid 19 death.

This is just bollocks

[Borg Refinery]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/false-positives-coronavirus_uk_5f686da4c5b6de79b677e909?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMmXOUVw9_zpFvirwuV_QDYaEIsETqyvZojgK4VFYHzsIDsIzRKt4wTVVxGAOoTAgtFV4G3wqWnSFF6sIYopbYPOYBbfyh0NZh_ukAiyUHCWiPzlIWk_fQxUK2OsvsCB8jeyQz7eOi2FVJxcdEymOQ39G4_8TU7l55uQBibiHGez

No, 90% Of Coronavirus Tests Are Not 'False Positives' And This Is Why

....
we know rising positive cases aren't due to false positives for a couple of other reasons.

Positive test rates are going up as a percentage of total tests – this is not disputed.

But this can't be because of an increase in false positives as the rate of false positives remains constant unless the actual method of testing changes, which it hasn't.

Additionally, if false positives were causing the spike in numbers, it would be uniform across the UK and it isn't.

I'm still not convinced
Hospital admissions due to coronavirus are at their highest levels since June. You do not go to hospital with a severe case of the false positives.

Why is this important?
We'll hand over to Dr Dominic Pimenta for this one, who told HuffPost UK: "What's really dangerous here is eroding the trust in the test and trace system, based on supposition, and this is then amplified to negatively effect public behaviour at at time when that is crucially needed to control cases and prevent more deaths and worse restrictions."

[Barry]

Worldometer:

Coronavirus Cases:
434,969
Deaths:
41,988

That's...really really bad. The world closed case death rate is 4% currently which is also (but not as) bad.

Strange how the 'recovered' and other metrics by the govt have apparently stopped being released to worldometer.

That would be right if we had counted everyone who has had the virus. But for each one we counted in the UK, we missed about 10, so it's 0.4%.

[Borg Refinery]

Worldometer:

Coronavirus Cases:
434,969
Deaths:
41,988

That's...really really bad. The world closed case death rate is 4% currently which is also (but not as) bad.

Strange how the 'recovered' and other metrics by the govt have apparently stopped being released to worldometer.

[Barry]

Sorry, I'll read that again:
98.1% of people having tests do not have it. They think they have it, therefore get tested, but their symptoms are not Covid-19.
I've not taken account of the unknown - false positive rate.
Based on 434969 positives from 23,188,836 tests.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Barry]

Would you care to reference some actuarial data for that please.

Not really but try this:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

I suggest you read the link you just posted, 434969 is the total people who have tested positive.

Sorry, I messed up.

[papasmurf]

Would you care to reference some actuarial data for that please.

Not really but try this:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

I suggest you read the link you just posted, 434969 is the total people who have tested positive.

[Barry]

Would you care to reference some actuarial data for that please.

Not really but try this:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

[papasmurf]

98.7% of people having tests do not have it. They think they have it, therefore get tested, but their symptoms are not Covid-19.
I've not taken account of the unknown - false positive rate.
Based on 5693 positives from 434,969 tests.

Would you care to reference some actuarial data for that please.

[Barry]

98.7% of people having tests do not have it. They think they have it, therefore get tested, but their symptoms are not Covid-19.
I've not taken account of the unknown - false positive rate.
Based on 5693 positives from 434,969 tests.

[Borg Refinery]

Shit data produces shit results.

You could be right — the various reports of Covid sewage analysis from around Europe seem to have dried up...

Posting crap and sewage for analysis sounds exactly like the kind of stupid thing this govt would do. No wonder the postboxes are always full of it.

The problem is that analysing wastewater doesn't tell you much - maybe they should focus on proper tracking and tracing systems that you know..work? I accept that that might upset some of our French blocks of cheese who love the idea of professors crapping in their various breakfast cereals, but I can assure them it would make a difference. 

[Borchester]

Using the word "guesswork" is quite misleading. 

No it ain't. Shit data produces shit results.

Absolutely,, which is why statisticians whose literal job is to study these things have techniques to quantify and deal with uncertainty.

Can any statistician predict the next number rolled on a die? No.

But they can tell you it's very unlikely the next 5 rolls will all be "1".  The fact that the next 5 rolls are a "1" doesn't mean they were wrong.

Exactly belly. You need a fair dice so that when you roll it 5 times the chances of getting a 1 each time is 1 chance in every 7776.

But the Chinese flu is not fair. It depends on age, sex, pre existing conditions, available medical treatment and various other odds and ends. So currently the possibility of dying from the Sino Snots is about 1 in 1500. Tomorrow there might be no more causalities. Alternatively we might not be any posts because all  would be posters had been stricken and had collapsed into puddles of their own bodily fluids.

Odd thing. I have a graving for some ginger nut biscuits and a sweet tooth was one of the first signs of the plague in 1665/6. And the epidemic killed between a sixth and a fifth of the population of the UK. Of course, in those days we had real plagues, not the sad, Guardian reading affairs we have today.