Extreme poverty ‘will double by Christmas’ in UK because of Covid-19

[papasmurf]

Ok - I still believe lockdown has/will be heavily responsible for making poverty worse

In Britain worse from an already bad position, then add to that the disaster that a hard Brexit will be is frankly frightening.

[DeppityDawg]

Sure. How would you measure that apart from of course anecdotally?

Oddly, "anecdotal evidence" always seems to be frowned upon on here by certain posters...except when they do it themselves, in which case it then becomes perfectly acceptable

Not sure how you'd measure inflicted vs non inflicted poverty. One stat I do remember from the days of a certain poster (not me and not on this forum) almost getting sued by some DWP employees, is that 'fraud' counts for around 2% of wasted money by the DWP, and with specially revised estimates to account for estimated undetected stuff they thought it might be 3%.

So, in the absence of a "measure", we must give people the benefit (no pun intended) of the doubt, and we must assume that all poverty is inflicted upon them by policies or by the state itself? Certainly, some posters give the impression that all poverty/injustice is a malevolent practice rather than combination of factors, and there is never or barely un acknowledgement that the system is gamed or the that "work-shyness" is anything other than a false invention

Sorry to use an "anecdote", but my own mother got benefits (supplementary benefit I think they called it back then). She worked part time, but again, was her poverty solely a result of government actions/policies, or did her (by then dead) husbands inadequacies and problems contribute to her poverty?

, but I remember telling people to stay open minded when Javert and co were having a go at you for saying it. As I recall, I pointed out that maybe (not definitely) Sweden and Japan's voluntary measures would work better.

As I recall, that resulted in accusations of me being a flat earther too.

Ok - I still believe lockdown has/will be heavily responsible for making poverty worse in this (and other) countries, and I believe I also stated that you could bet the usual suspects (most of whom were lockdown zealots) would be along to blame the government at the first sign of the negative effects of the very policies they were advocating

[Borg Refinery]

China have done well so far， as the forecasts predicted.

Oh well, I'm probably spamming by now, but anyway.. our counterparts in Japan and China, Vietnam and South Korea way outdid us it seems.

[Borg Refinery]

Ugh, can't sleep

Yes, I know the feeling

Anyway, moving on to extreme poverty poverty, interchangeable with 'destitution':

I think that illustrates that we are arguing over definitions, not whether poverty exists or not. I remember vividly being hungry myself - was that Harold Wilsons fault? Or was having a violent, feckless father who consumed a lot of what he earnt on alcohol instead of food something to do with it? Part of the discussion must surely include some kind of recognition that poverty is not solely something that is inflicted on people, just as surely as it isn't something that they always inflict on themselves

Sure. How would you measure that apart from of course anecdotally?

Anonymous polling I guess...

But also Wilson was viewed as having done a bad job hence why he got the elbow, his successor surely made things worse for the country in general.. does anyone look on 'sunny jim' well at all? I doubt it.

Not sure how you'd measure inflicted vs non inflicted poverty. One stat I do remember from the days of a certain poster (not me and not on this forum) almost getting sued by some DWP employees, is that 'fraud' counts for around 2% of wasted money by the DWP, and with specially revised estimates to account for estimated undetected stuff they thought it might be 3%.

Edit: Yup same now.
The main points from the report are: 2.4% of total benefit expenditure was overpaid due to fraud and error. ... 1.1% of total benefit expenditure (or £2.0 billion) was underpaid due to fraud and error. the net government loss, after recoveries, was £3.6 billion, or 1.9% of benefit expenditure.

gov.uk

Who knows.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/11/uk-hunger-crisis-15m-people-go-whole-day-without-food

Well, if we want to be like China, we need to install suicide nets outside workplaces and make sure good quality egg noodles don't cost £1.75!

So, what are we saying now? That the government is ultimately responsible for the effects caused by CV19 containment measures, eg lockdown, and the resultant damage to the economy? Which in turn is going to result in an even bigger unemployment spike, rent arrears, defaults and people being pushed further into debt?

Isn't that damage to the economy what several of us were saying would happen as far back as April, and were told to STFU?

Dunno, but I remember telling people to stay open minded when Javert and co were having a go at you for saying it. As I recall, I pointed out that maybe (not definitely) Sweden and Japan's voluntary measures would work better.

As I recall, that resulted in accusations of me being a flat earther too.

However, it looks like Japan and Sweden have had mixed blessings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/05/sweden-coronavirus-record-gdp-fall-still-outperformed-some-in-europe.html

Sweden's second-quarter GDP fall was its worst in modern history — but outperformed many in Europe

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

"Sweden has about 8200 confirmed cases per million people as of 12 August, compared with 1780 in Norway and 2560 in Denmark. (For the UK it is 4600 and the US 15,400.)

Sweden has had 57 deaths per 100,000, compared with five in Norway and 11 in Denmark. (For the UK it is 70 and the US 50."

So mixed blessings really, but they still overall did better than us... mostly.

They're now considering a lockdown from what I read.

And Japan is in the mire now. But it's contraction was only 7.8% which is better than most again..

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/16/economy/japan-economy-gdp/index.html

Maybe their deferred lockdown/state of emergency until the 2nd wave plans were smarter after all, who knows?

[papasmurf]

So, what are we saying now? That the government is ultimately responsible for the effects caused by CV19 containment measures, eg lockdown, and the resultant damage to the economy? Which in turn is going to result in an even bigger unemployment spike, rent arrears, defaults and people being pushed further into debt?

Isn't that damage to the economy what several of us were saying would happen as far back as April, and were told to STFU?

Tory austerity targeting the poor and vulnerable for ten years has caused the problem Covid-19 is just an aggravating factor.

[DeppityDawg]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/11/uk-hunger-crisis-15m-people-go-whole-day-without-food

Well, if we want to be like China, we need to install suicide nets outside workplaces and make sure good quality egg noodles don't cost £1.75!

So, what are we saying now? That the government is ultimately responsible for the effects caused by CV19 containment measures, eg lockdown, and the resultant damage to the economy? Which in turn is going to result in an even bigger unemployment spike, rent arrears, defaults and people being pushed further into debt?

Isn't that damage to the economy what several of us were saying would happen as far back as April, and were told to STFU?

[DeppityDawg]

Ugh, can't sleep

Yes, I know the feeling

Anyway, moving on to extreme poverty poverty, interchangeable with 'destitution':

I think that illustrates that we are arguing over definitions, not whether poverty exists or not. I remember vividly being hungry myself - was that Harold Wilsons fault? Or was having a violent, feckless father who consumed a lot of what he earnt on alcohol instead of food something to do with it? Part of the discussion must surely include some kind of recognition that poverty is not solely something that is inflicted on people, just as surely as it isn't something that they always inflict on themselves

[Borg Refinery]

1.5m people go whole day without food

A hunger crisis is rapidly developing among British people in lockdown, as millions report having to go without meals, food charities and local government have warned.

Just three weeks into the lockdown, the Food Foundation said that 1.5 million Britons reported not eating for a whole day because they had no money or access to food. Some 3 million people in total were in households where someone had been forced to skip some meals. More than 1 million people reported losing all their income because of the pandemic, with over a third of them believing they would not be entitled to any government help.

The foundation's findings are based on a YouGov poll carried out across England, Scotland and Wales this week.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/11/uk-hunger-crisis-15m-people-go-whole-day-without-food

Well, if we want to be like China, we need to install suicide nets outside workplaces and make sure good quality egg noodles don't cost £1.75!

Related;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hunger-food-poverty-insecurity-uk-significant-growing-ministers-mps-dwp-environmental-audit-committee-a8719176.html%3famp

The government has been accused of presiding over "significant and growing" hunger as a report warns that one in five children in the UK live in homes that are severely food insecure – making it the worst for child hunger in Europe.

A combination of high living costs, stagnating wages and the rollout of universal credit has led to a steady rise in food insecurity – yet ministers have allowed the issue to "fall between the cracks", according to a report by the Environmental Audit Committee.

A report by a DWP Audit Committee. Why exactly are they called 'environmental'? What?

[Borg Refinery]

Ugh, can't sleep and not looking for an argument with anyone, but I think this has been covered before.

I think 'absolute poverty' is widespread. Some charities etc also interchangeably use the term 'absolute low income'.

..Then some definitions are AHC (after housing costs) or BHC. Then some are tied to various measures of inflation.

An individual is in absolute low income if their household income is below 60% of the median in some base year, adjusted for inflation. DWP's Households below average income (HBAI) publication uses 2010/11 as the base year in order to measure absolute low income.14 Jun 2019

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN07096/SN07096.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiM-fe25vHrAhXoVRUIHTIFD9YQFjABegQIDBAH&usg=AOvVaw0cSxl2t099oVIhBVIE0L2z

Anyway, after adjustments by the resolution foundation for 'missing benefit income', that measure of absolute poverty after housing costs is 18%. That's the govt's own metrics published this year, and the story was carried in right-wing media too as I recall.

Now is the chance for someone to impress us with their maths skills and do comparisons with other countries, and be a proper statistician if they can be bothered.

....It would be better than the endless arguing which folks like Toots say puts them off of reading - or contributing - to threads.

Now moving on to another metric, deep poverty;

More than 4 million people in the UK are trapped in deep poverty, meaning their income is at least 50% below the official breadline, locking them into a weekly struggle to afford the most basic living essentials, an independent study has shown.

The Social Metrics Commission also said 7 million people, including 2.3 million children, were affected by what it termed persistent poverty, meaning that they were not only in poverty but had been for at least two of the previous three years.
...
The commission's chair, Philippa Stroud, a Conservative peer, said there was a pressing need for a concerted approach to the problem. "It is time to look again at our approach to children, and to invest in our children as the future of our nation," she said.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2019/jul/29/uk-deep-poverty-study-austerity

The social metrics commission seems to win cross party support (shrugs).

Anyway, moving on to extreme poverty poverty, interchangeable with 'destitution':

The finding echoes wider concerns about the re-emergence of extreme poverty, known as destitution, which separate research has shown was experienced by an estimated 1.5 million people in the UK as a result of benefits cuts and high rents. A destitution level of income is £140 a week for a couple with two children.

Yeah, not good.

Remember, this is research conducted by an indy group headed by a Tory peer which has been lauded across parties

[DeppityDawg]

Really....?

Yes "really". Whilst this guys case is tragic, how many people actually starve to death in the UK each year?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/05/figures-show-rise-in-malnutrition-deaths-in-england-and-wales

The article is dated 2018, and the figure is approx 350 - less than 0.05% of all deaths was "malnutrition" recorded as a contributory factor. And the word "contributory" is an important factor - because as with all statistics, it needs perspective

John Pullinger, the chief executive of the UK Statistics Authority, said: "Malnutrition may be recorded as the underlying cause of death, but this is a rare occurrence. More commonly, malnutrition or 'effects of hunger' may be recorded on the death certificate as a contributory factor, but not as the underlying cause. Those who die with the condition are usually already very ill.

By any measure, this is not "extreme", and attempts to liken the UK to some despotic 3rd world economy where people are routinely starving to death is grossly dishonest

[DeppityDawg]

I called Nick an ignoramus because spouting non-evidenced bollocks about how the poor are all taking the piss out of the rest of us and better off than hard working people -like some two bit pub bore - is in my view ignorant in the extreme.

He never said the poor are "all" taking the piss, but spin it to suit your own agenda why not?

Regardless of whether you believe it or not some people are taking the piss. They choose the trappings that they can't afford and then use food banks,

It isn't a view that is "ignorant" simply because YOU disagree with it, it is a view that is DIFFERENT to yours - your casual use of "Social propaganda" to describe the DM (while ignoring the very same biases of other publications that pander too world views like yours) is simply a device to villify a view you don't like and cast yourself as some morally superior intelligence - are we all ignorant because we read the Daily Mail? Are we all incapable of making our own minds up simply because we don't share the childish 'cops and robbers' liberal narrative of "victims and oppressors"? Feck off LL, its simply an insult and a cheap dig at every one who isn't on your "side" of the political fence

So in other words if you don't earn enough to eat you starve, is what would happen if he had his way. The assumption being of course that all those not working are out of work through laziness, which also ignores the fact that millions of people in work are still living in poverty.

Again, be selective about what he said, why don't you?

If I had my way it would be like China where if you don't get up and earn enough to eat then tough. Socialism states you help those who can't help them selves, not those that can't be bothered.

You can omit parts of what he said, and you can interpret his words how ever you like, it still won't say he doesn't care. He might not care about the same things you do, but that doesn't make you right and him wrong. FWIW, I don't agree with much of what he says either, but I don't go around calling everyone who doesn't share my view an ignoramus - a classic modern liberal trope of pretending your so fecking intellectually and morally superior. And in this case, he is right - there is no good reason not to work and take responsibility for yourself and those who rely on you if you are ABLE to - his point is not that ALL the poor take the piss, it is that SOME do and our society permits it to happen - the effect on the rest of those who don't is corrosive. If you really had grown up on a council estate in a disadvantage area you would know this

What people are objecting to (me included) is the use of emotive terms like "extreme poverty", which does not exist in the UK. It is an emotive and politically driven description designed to mislead - extreme poverty does not exist in Western democracies, unless we are going to re-define the meaning of "extreme". Even Lord Haw Haw himself, Patman Post, states its, but you don't call him an ignoramus? Is that in case he accuses you of being a racist?

Depends on location — eg, in the UK the bar is set at those whose earnings and benefits don't allow smart phone and smart TV ownership/rental with Sky contracts. There are also individual areas where Trussell Trust franchised outlets are anxious to attract clients and others that are inundated with claims...

Maybe we should be asking what the definition of "ignorance" is instead, because it seems to be anyone who doesn't fawn all over modern liberal orthodoxy that everyone can be a victim and personal responsibility is now so 20th century

As for the rest of your post, DD, I am overwhelmed by it's verbosity which cannot but help lend a semblance of ranting to it. It is too much to respond to in detail. I lack both the time and the inclination.

Verbosity? That's comical coming from a poster who keeps complaining he is too hard worked to come on the forum other than for a quick insult here and there, then goes on the declare he doesn't have the "inclination" to respond when he pisses others off. As if no one else has a job as hard as yours. As for ranting, it was you who was complaining about insults the other week, but then seems only too happy to dish them out

[Borg Refinery]

Lets face it, the very people moaning about poverty now, are the very ones who have helped create it by Covid paranoia and now want to police it with reporting anyone and everyone.

That's completely absurd.

[Sheepy]

Really....?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-51665505

Unfortunately that is just one instance of many.

Told you so.

[papasmurf]

Really....?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-51665505

Unfortunately that is just one instance of many.

[srb7677]

Poverty is relative in this country - people don't starve to death...

Really....?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-51665505