..Junk Science. Again.

[Barry]

Liverpool results are very interesting:
PCR test results vs LF (Lateral Flow) results.
a 5 fold difference between the two tests begs many questions.

[Barry]

Take a look at this Twitter account, Javert.
https://twitter.com/Jon_statistics

[Javert]

Javert - source figures, ONS.
There's no excess deaths for the time of the year. Where are they hiding the bodies from the lethal pandemic?

Can you provide a link to this graph on the ONS official website?  I doubt it because again this graph has been cherry picked to try to present the cast that there is no second wave of Coronavirus.

Firstly, the uppers and lower limits have been put on the graph, but the average has not, trying to give the impression that deaths are not higher than "normal" already.

Second, week 44 is the first week in October, this graph is out of date, especially considering Covid 19 deaths lag behind infection rates by a good 4 weeks or more.

Again you would need the full details of the methodology, and to account for obvious discrepancies like the fact that the line is labelled last 5 years, but then the note refers to the last 6 years, which to me suggests that the person has cherry picked the last time there was a major flu outbreak.

Then - you would need to know what he meant by adjusting for population growth.  Adjusting only for population growth without taking into account age, would present a misleading picture also.

In any case, the problem is that these graphs tend to be from websites run by people who have already decided the lockdown is not needed and things are not as bad as the government claims, and then they are looking to use data to prove their point.  Proper data analysis is not about cherry picking the data to try to prove the opinion that you've already formed - that is not science it's quackery.

[Barry]

Javert - source figures, ONS.
There's no excess deaths for the time of the year. Where are they hiding the bodies from the lethal pandemic?

[Javert]

Well yes obviously I can't refute your graph as you don't provide any source links or data.  You may as well post a photo of a snail.

[Barry]

Here's another graph you cannot refute, Javert. This is the Swine Flu graph from 2009, showing a second wave which did not actually happen.
All caused by false positive PCR tests.

[Javert]

It was almost eliminated in July but still showed around 550 cases a day out of 110,000 tests at the time, which shows a maximum false positive rate at that time of 0.5%.
If that rate is still the same the current false positive rate is about 1900 per day.
The current death rate from all causes is at the higher end of normal. Some are saying the mass testing is creating the "2nd wave".

The May peak is obvious. The current "peak" is normal at this time of year.

Don't believe any of this, of course.

Barry you keep posting these graph images without providing the source, but which show patterns that are exactly what you want to see.  If you provide the source reports and the basis upon which someone has adjusted the graph to show what they want them to be rather than what the mainstream scientists are showing, I'll take a look.

[Barry]

It was almost eliminated in July but still showed around 550 cases a day out of 110,000 tests at the time, which shows a maximum false positive rate at that time of 0.5%.
If that rate is still the same the current false positive rate is about 1900 per day.
The current death rate from all causes is at the higher end of normal. Some are saying the mass testing is creating the "2nd wave".

The May peak is obvious. The current "peak" is normal at this time of year.

Don't believe any of this, of course.

[Borg Refinery]

they seem to think that the best person to receive a £100m contract is one of their public school friends  who has no experience in that area but has just set up a brand new company "Acme PHE Equipment Incorporated" or whatever.

🤣😆😸

People have probably been woken up by laughing but anyway, what was the point.. oh yeah.

So uh, the early part of 2021 is when we get this oh so miraculous cure all vaccine. I can't wait! I bet it has no adverse effects apart from whatever Pfizer deem acceotable... no doubt high up folks there and negotiating all closely related 4'5th cousins of the earl of marzipan or whatever. No conflicts of interest or unfair tendering or dodgy Big Pharma co's with 100% dodgy untrustworthy track records, as opposed to the locally produced Scottish COVID vax which seemed promising, safe, effective cheap. Hmmmmm. Suddenly all news on that front goes quiet with no updates. I wonder if their labs now have big tacky Pfizer logo's on them instead, I mean whiever heard of big corporate buyouts of the competition, throttling competition with monopolistic practices is "big business" 101.

What's the latest today, hmm..

Scotland the bigliest worstliest covidliest death trap in the entire universe..and they are whining communists.

Govt promises 'mega labs' (.....huh?) for mass testing

Tighter lockdown needed (uh..)

Oh boy. What rubbish.

[Javert]

This is a must read from the BMJ
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425
The government tried to stop this being published. They procured a million test kits, when PHE had submitted a report saying they were sub-standard.
It was blocked by the PM's office.

If you remember, I've been telling you since March or April that the government has been making it as difficult as possible to get proper information about the specificity and sensitivity of the various tests being used - this is just another example of that.

To balance it out a bit, the government has admitted that these tests are not suitable for individual use or for making individual decisions, but they can be useful for mass research.  That said, in the example of this particular test, it's so bad they should not have bought it.

This is also partly because of the emergency nature of the pandemic, tests have been put into use without the normal lengthy process to get accurate figures about their accuracy, which normally takes many months.

Further, the government will for sure argue that because it's an emergency situation, they had to buy lots of items, knowing that some of them might not be up to scratch - it's the same with vaccines where they have ordered several different vaccines without even knowing if they will ever work.

However this does not excuse corruption or nepotism where they seem to think that the best person to receive a £100m contract is one of their public school friends  who has no experience in that area but has just set up a brand new company "Acme PHE Equipment Incorporated" or whatever.

[Barry]

This is a must read from the BMJ
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425
The government tried to stop this being published. They procured a million test kits, when PHE had submitted a report saying they were sub-standard.
It was blocked by the PM's office.

[Borg Refinery]

Could it be that your inner self rebelled at the thought of being presented with an unsolicited bill...?

[patman post]

It's a duck very close-up. It took me a while to decipher what it was. Why can't you see it? Is this another example of Halloween horrors? We seem to have been plagued today.

Could it be that your inner self rebelled at the thought of being presented with an unsolicited bill...?

[Borg Refinery]

..

[Borg Refinery]

Someone is printing this topic as I speak.

..It's probably the duck.
(!)