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..Junk Science. Again.

Started by Dynamis, September 27, 2020, 12:07:05 PM

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Barry

Quote from: papasmurf on October 07, 2020, 10:00:34 AM
The problem is the number of people with pre-existing conditions that they don't know they have. Normally they don't matter.
But with Covid-19 killing people with pre-existing conditions or leaving them with "long Covid" It would be a Pandora's box.
No, the problem is that those people won't want to stay home and away from the young and fit until the outbreak has died down.
† The end is nigh †

papasmurf

Quote from: Barry on October 07, 2020, 09:55:19 AM

Herd immunity is the way to go, or maybe it's junk science ... again.

The problem is the number of people with pre-existing conditions that they don't know they have. Normally they don't matter.
But with Covid-19 killing people with pre-existing conditions or leaving them with "long Covid" It would be a Pandora's box.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

Barry

Quote from: HDQQ on September 27, 2020, 08:31:12 PMOn the one hand there's the herd immunity theory, but that would probably have lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions becoming seriously ill in the UK earlier this year.
Oh look Ducky.
Guess what is in the news:
Coronavirus: Top scientists call for herd immunity approach - as government's 'soft touch' criticised
Herd immunity is the way to go, or maybe it's junk science ... again.

† The end is nigh †

Barry

Will Whitty and Valance resign, they are more like Laurel and Hardy.

† The end is nigh †

Barry

What a waste of time, effort and public money that was, John.
† The end is nigh †

johnofgwent

Quote from: Barry on September 27, 2020, 10:27:10 PM
Quote from: T00ts on September 27, 2020, 08:56:40 PM
If the precautions cannot stop a cold what chance covid which they say has become more infectious than it was?
Similar story here with my grandson, with whom we have daily contact. He was excluded from school until he got a negative test, which took days.
My daughter and son-in-law both are working and the impact on them was high.
Everyone knew it was a cold, but the school were a bunch of jobsworth. We have asthma in our family and colds always give us a cough for a while.

How come all these colds are still being transmitted with all the anti-Covid measures?
Answer = because they don't work!


well of course I could have told you that and have been for a while

As expected, fresher's flu is rife in every academic city as it is every september as the germs get new meat to prosper on

My daughter picked up a cold from the kids at the school she works at, the head asked herto get a covid test, i was amazed she actually got one sent ot her home, she sent it back, negative of course.

<t>In matters of taxation, Lord Clyde\'s summing up in the 1929 case Inland Revenue v Ayrshire Pullman Services is worth a glance.</t>

Barry

Quote from: T00ts on September 27, 2020, 08:56:40 PM
If the precautions cannot stop a cold what chance covid which they say has become more infectious than it was?
Similar story here with my grandson, with whom we have daily contact. He was excluded from school until he got a negative test, which took days.
My daughter and son-in-law both are working and the impact on them was high.
Everyone knew it was a cold, but the school were a bunch of jobsworth. We have asthma in our family and colds always give us a cough for a while.

How come all these colds are still being transmitted with all the anti-Covid measures?
Answer = because they don't work!

Keep wearing your masks in shops though. It's the law.
† The end is nigh †

T00ts

My grand-daughter is at private day school with just 15 in a class. They all have tablets for work so a paperless system. They have washing facilities just everywhere and follow strict distancing.

One child got symptoms. She was tested - negative - and stayed home until she was clear for what turned out to be a cold. Gradually the cold has spread through the class despite all the precautions. My grand-daughter has just been home for a week but fortunately she has been able to attend all her classes online. None of the other children have been tested as the symptoms were all the same.

If the precautions cannot stop a cold what chance covid which they say has become more infectious than it was?

HDQQ

The general science of covid-19 seems pretty clear - the main means of transmissions is from virus-contaminated droplets exhaled by an infected person, while the virus suspended in air (aerosols) and touching contaminated surfaces are secondary means. It's also known that covid-19 is very contagious and has led to critical illness or death for a significant proportion. There's no disagreement among experts on these basics.

The disagreement has mainly been about how to combat the spread of covid-19 in the absence of effective treatments or a vaccine.  On the one hand there's the herd immunity theory, but that would probably have lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions becoming seriously ill in the UK earlier this year. On the other hand there could have been strictly enforced and continuing lockdowns which would only work if new daily cases could be brought down to a handful, with a good track and trace system in place to follow those up.  As for mask wearing, clearly that's not going to increase the risk of infection but common sense would suggest that it would reduce the risk but probably not eliminate it.

Formerly known as Hyperduck Quack Quack.
I might not be an expert but I do know enough to correct you when you're wrong!

Borg Refinery

Quote from: Barry on September 27, 2020, 02:01:34 PM
End of suggests there's no discussion, but there is plenty to be had.

Not how I meant it.

QuoteI think there is rightful criticism of the arbitrary rule of 6 which came out of nowhere and SAGE knew nothing of it.
There is rightful criticism of the 10pm closing time which SAGE knew nothing of. No one can explain how these rules are a help.

Agreed which is why I added "I'm not suggesting that the current strategy is working".*

QuoteMany people are happy to carry on social distancing, (a metre is actually fine, 2 metres was not based on much at all), wearing a face covering on public transport, even in shops,  and keeping away from vulnerable people who don't want us near them.

Sure..

QuoteHerd immunity will eventually be attained through the younger fitter members of society who will unwittingly spread it at a low rate and eventually it will fade into the background.

That's a bad idea...

QuoteAre the current measures working?

No. *See above.
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Barry

End of suggests there's no discussion, but there is plenty to be had.

I think there is rightful criticism of the arbitrary rule of 6 which came out of nowhere and SAGE knew nothing of it.
There is rightful criticism of the 10pm closing time which SAGE knew nothing of. No one can explain how these rules are a help.

Many people are happy to carry on social distancing, (a metre is actually fine, 2 metres was not based on much at all), wearing a face covering on public transport, even in shops,  and keeping away from vulnerable people who don't want us near them.

Herd immunity will eventually be attained through the younger fitter members of society who will unwittingly spread it at a low rate and eventually it will fade into the background.

Are the current measures working?
† The end is nigh †

Borg Refinery

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/09/23/scamademics-right-wing-lobbying-groups-reviving-herd-immunity-in-the-uk/

....Widespread media coverage of the letter has suggested a deep-seated schism at the heart of the British scientific community about how to respond to the crisis.

In reality, the authors of the letter that is critical of a COVID-19 suppression strategy have numerous ties to Conservative and Republican Party lobby groups as well as to various agencies of the Government, including HM Treasury, the Ministry of Defence and the 'Nudge' Unit – ties which represent potentially serious conflicts of interest.
......
A version of this letter was published by the Spectator magazine on Monday under the title 'Boris Must Urgently Rethink his Covid Strategy'. It criticised the current strategy of 'suppression of the virus, until such a time that a vaccine can be deployed' as "increasingly unfeasible". The strategy, it claimed, is "leading to significant harm across all age groups, which likely offsets any benefits."
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I'm not suggesting that the current strategy is working, but total openness and zero precautions based approach is simply not going to work. We don't want to end up anywhere near America's per capita figures; it is a disaster over there - end of.
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