..Junk Science. Again.

[Sheepy]

SIR – I smiled at some of the suggestions from our eminent scientists in Sage on how to have a safe Christmas.

Three pieces of advice caught my eye: have drinks or Christmas dinner outside by a fire pit; have two tables so you can socially distance; and, if you are a visitor, take your own plates and put them in the dishwasher yourself.

These guidelines certainly tell us something about the lifestyles of Sage members – and their understanding of how most people live.

Always somebody moaning, anybody would think we don't all have a fire pit and Granny don't have a fake fur coat.

[Sheepy]

At least 1 person sheep is reading alternatives to the government spin machine. The truth is out there, but the MPs will not dare to vote against more pointless restrictions.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/government-third-national-lockdown-england-january-coronavirus-085757429.html

[Barry]

At least 1 person sheep is reading alternatives to the government spin machine. The truth is out there, but the MPs will not dare to vote against more pointless restrictions.

[Sheepy]

Here's a very good article, well researched, showing the conflicts of interests with SAGE members, government and pharmaceuticals companies.
https://www.zoeharcombe.com/2020/11/sage-conflicts-of-interest

Welcome to the world Barry, where somebody is going to sell you something you don't need or want but need to convince you otherwise.

[Barry]

Here's a very good article, well researched, showing the conflicts of interests with SAGE members, government and pharmaceuticals companies.
https://www.zoeharcombe.com/2020/11/sage-conflicts-of-interest

[Sheepy]

We are all too British to complain about our Article 8 HRA being violated, aren't we? Stiff upper lip, there's a good chap.

Because like usual, it isn't worth the paper it is written on.

[patman post]

We are all too British to complain about our Article 8 HRA being violated, aren't we? Stiff upper lip, there's a good chap.

There's usually wriggle room:

There are situations when public authorities can interfere with your right to respect for private and family life, home and correspondence. This is only allowed where the authority can show that its action is lawful, necessary and proportionate in order to:

protect national security
protect public safety
protect the economy
protect health or morals
prevent disorder or crime, or
protect the rights and freedoms of other people.
Action is 'proportionate' when it is appropriate and no more than necessary to address the problem concerned. 
https://www.equalityhumanrights.com/en/human-rights-act/article-8-respect-your-private-and-family-life

[patman post]

Fair enough, I didn't know anything about that. Does it negate anything he wrote?

Some of his views are shared by a significant number of business commentators and economists. But overall, the majority of those in charge of the major economies are following similar restrictions. It could be the main reason the spread of Covid and total excess deaths from all causes are now less than forecast...

[Barry]

The hysterical nature of it refutes it, ICC, human rights abuses? Going a bit far don't you think..?

We are all too British to complain about our Article 8 HRA being violated, aren't we? Stiff upper lip, there's a good chap.

[Borg Refinery]

Fair enough, I didn't know anything about that. Does it negate anything he wrote?

The hysterical nature of it refutes it, ICC, human rights abuses? Going a bit far don't you think..?

[Barry]

A disaffected former state employee riding his pet hobby horse doesn't appear to have "any ulterior motive"?
By issuing tweets, writing blogs and submitting articles to national newspapers in different countries all critical of his employer, economist Sabhlok, like Wakefield with MMR, painted himself into a corner...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8742023/Victorian-government-economist-Sanjeev-Sabhlok-resigns-protest-Dan-Andrews-police-state.html

Fair enough, I didn't know anything about that. Does it negate anything he wrote?

[patman post]

More junk science?
Well worth a read, this:
Given new data we must downgrade the severity of this pandemic
Doesn't seem to have any ulterior motive.

A disaffected former state employee riding his pet hobby horse doesn't appear to have "any ulterior motive"?
By issuing tweets, writing blogs and submitting articles to national newspapers in different countries all critical of his employer, economist Sabhlok, like Wakefield with MMR, painted himself into a corner...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8742023/Victorian-government-economist-Sanjeev-Sabhlok-resigns-protest-Dan-Andrews-police-state.html

[Barry]

More junk science?
Well worth a read, this:
Given new data we must downgrade the severity of this pandemic
Doesn't seem to have any ulterior motive.

[Barry]

Is this more junk science from the Government, or in June, were 25% of people immune even though some had not had it!
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936461/EDSAB-HOME_study-details-research-protocol-outputs_18-11-20.pdf
I may have read it wrong, I'm sure someone will correct me.
By the way, I'm one of those who was involved in the study. I presented as a person who believed they had been infected, and the antibody results 9 weeks later suggested that I had not.
However, the IgM antibody results are virtually zero after 9 weeks, so I still do not know for sure.

[BeElBeeBub]

That graph seems only goes to week 44.  The highest deaths i can find in week 44 over the last decade is 10,697 last year (a small difference, but seeing as we are both using the ONS, I wonder where the discrepancy comes from)

However we now have week 45 available...

This is from the ONS
1   2020   5yr Mean
---------------------------
37   9811   9306
38   9523   9264
39   9634   9377
40   9945   9555
41   9954   9811
42   10534   9865
43   10739   9759
44   10887   9891
45   11812   10331

As you can see we are now well above the mean.

in fact 11,812 is the highest week 45 figure in the last decade by over 1,000 deaths.  The next highest is 10,650 in 2019





In better news there are some (tentative) signs in the hospital data that the death rate is not rising as fast as it was and in some regions has leveled out. Fingers crossed this isn't another "false summit"