LOCKDOWN 2 - the November experience

[Borchester]

There's only a danger of a 3rd wave because they say so.  Everything in 2020 was nonsense, the figures prove it, so why keep on spreading the fear?  The economy may be alright, but your debt will not be too good.  You will pay for it.

Dunno.

At the current rate the 7 day fatality bill should be under 100 by about mid May. Unfortunately,  the same thing happened last August when everything creaked happily along the bottom for about 6 weeks and then the deaths started to climb again.

We could be heading back two or three generations when we had the great smogs and folk were keeling over from the bronchitis and would sit gasping in front of coal fires and chain smoke so as to clear their chests. Happy days 

[Scott777]

Because there's danger from a third wave and, so far, the economy is holding up better than predicted with output and employment now rising...?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/march2021

There's only a danger of a 3rd wave because they say so.  Everything in 2020 was nonsense, the figures prove it, so why keep on spreading the fear?  The economy may be alright, but your debt will not be too good.  You will pay for it.

[Scott777]

crawling round a sacred stone after midnight smeared in the blood of a lamb,

have you been spying on me?  😁

[Scott777]

I'm not a virologist. But reading up on Covid, I'm getting a distinctly different picture to the arguments you're pushing.
For instance I understand that epidemics caused by viruses are likely to have began when humans developed more densely populated agricultural communities. This allowed viruses to spread rapidly between animals and humans and to become endemic.

Smallpox (hopefully eradicated by vaccination) and measles (lessened) viruses first appeared in humans in Europe and North Africa thousands of years ago. But the false information on surrounding MMR has caused a measles surge in recent years.

Influenza pandemics have been recorded since 1580, and occurred with increasing frequency ever since. The 1918-19 pandemic carried off 40–50 million died in less than a year. Regular flu vaccination programmes lessen the chances of similar outbreaks — but just it's because it's mainly old people, or those with conditions that find flu fatal, do we just let them be culled?   

And the same with Covid. 

It was probably only in the early 20th century that many diseases were confirmed to be caused by viruses. Epidemics of polio were only controlled following the development of a vaccine in the 1950s. HIV, Sars, Mers, etc, are a few of the new viruses to have recently emerged.

OK you say bad sanitation was the cause. But hand washing, surface cleaning, masking, isolation, fresh air, etc, have been gradually learned over hundreds or thousands of years — other practices (like crawling round a sacred stone after midnight smeared in the blood of a lamb, and waiting for herd immunity) have probably lost out through not helping.

I suspect, like many people, my recent heightened interest in viruses has been sparked by Covid, and how my family can avoid it. And as we can't be sure how badly we could be affected by Covid, I'm happy we've been given clear common sense instructions how to help protect ourselves. And I'm grateful we have  successful vaccines.

Why should I challenge them or test out minority theories?

It's all very interesting, but nothing that shows any contagious disease before the 20th century which was caused purely by infection and not by bad practices, and which killed millions of people.  Your claim is that things got worse because of people living more densely, but I suggest it's because of bad practices.  So the plague was spread by terrible sanitation, and now we eat junk, breathe junk, and get bathed in radiation, (and who knows, maybe vaccines are also to blame).  These new practices affect the immune system.  That's what the evidence shows - that's why most people have no symptoms with SARS-COV2.

[patman post]

But we aren't talking about geological catastrophes or disease in general, covid is a virus.  The big diseases were not just the result of deadly infections, but the result of bad sanitation and practices.  Extra deadly viruses do not propagate.  More mild viruses are tackled by healthy immune systems.  Tell me which contagious disease before the 20th century was there, which was caused purely by infection and not by bad practices, and which killed millions of people?

I'm not a virologist. But reading up on Covid, I'm getting a distinctly different picture to the arguments you're pushing.
For instance I understand that epidemics caused by viruses are likely to have began when humans developed more densely populated agricultural communities. This allowed viruses to spread rapidly between animals and humans and to become endemic.

Smallpox (hopefully eradicated by vaccination) and measles (lessened) viruses first appeared in humans in Europe and North Africa thousands of years ago. But the false information on surrounding MMR has caused a measles surge in recent years.

Influenza pandemics have been recorded since 1580, and occurred with increasing frequency ever since. The 1918-19 pandemic carried off 40–50 million died in less than a year. Regular flu vaccination programmes lessen the chances of similar outbreaks — but just it's because it's mainly old people, or those with conditions that find flu fatal, do we just let them be culled?   

And the same with Covid. 

It was probably only in the early 20th century that many diseases were confirmed to be caused by viruses. Epidemics of polio were only controlled following the development of a vaccine in the 1950s. HIV, Sars, Mers, etc, are a few of the new viruses to have recently emerged.

OK you say bad sanitation was the cause. But hand washing, surface cleaning, masking, isolation, fresh air, etc, have been gradually learned over hundreds or thousands of years — other practices (like crawling round a sacred stone after midnight smeared in the blood of a lamb, and waiting for herd immunity) have probably lost out through not helping.

I suspect, like many people, my recent heightened interest in viruses has been sparked by Covid, and how my family can avoid it. And as we can't be sure how badly we could be affected by Covid, I'm happy we've been given clear common sense instructions how to help protect ourselves. And I'm grateful we have  successful vaccines.

Why should I challenge them or test out minority theories?

[patman post]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-period-of-excess-death-from-second-wave-has-come-to-an-end-ons-figures-12254247 It's over. Why are we still in lockdown and continuing to ruin the economy?

Because there's danger from a third wave and, so far, the economy is holding up better than predicted with output and employment now rising...?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/march2021

[Barry]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-period-of-excess-death-from-second-wave-has-come-to-an-end-ons-figures-12254247
It's over.
Why are we still in lockdown and continuing to ruin the economy?

[Scott777]

That's the point, all of us didn't. There have been mass exterminations by geological catastrophes and disease for hundreds of thousands of years. Survival has mostly been achieved by the accident of being so widely spread and separate. It's only been in the last 150 or so years that medical discoveries have been able to counteract the growing dangers of world travel and growing and mixing populations...

But we aren't talking about geological catastrophes or disease in general, covid is a virus.  The big diseases were not just the result of deadly infections, but the result of bad sanitation and practices.  Extra deadly viruses do not propagate.  More mild viruses are tackled by healthy immune systems.  Tell me which contagious disease before the 20th century was there, which was caused purely by infection and not by bad practices, and which killed millions of people?

[patman post]

God knows how you established that the vax is more effective than innate immunity.  How ever did we survive throughout human history!!!

That's the point, all of us didn't. There have been mass exterminations by geological catastrophes and disease for hundreds of thousands of years. Survival has mostly been achieved by the accident of being so widely spread and separate. It's only been in the last 150 or so years that medical discoveries have been able to counteract the growing dangers of world travel and growing and mixing populations...

[Scott777]

Natural immunity to AIDS has been found in some prostitutes in Africa. Worthy of study, albeit with little practical implementation so far. Same with Covid herd and innate immunity. It all helps, but isolation and vaccination have proved the most effective so far. Of course there's always the dissenters and naysayers, however, as their offered reasonings are so varied, it's difficult to know if they have genuine concerns or are just out to have fun or be intentionally disruptive...

God knows how you established that the vax is more effective than innate immunity.  How ever did we survive throughout human history!!!

[patman post]

And the one you missed, which is innate immunity.

Natural immunity to AIDS has been found in some prostitutes in Africa. Worthy of study, albeit with little practical implementation so far. Same with Covid herd and innate immunity. It all helps, but isolation and vaccination have proved the most effective so far. Of course there's always the dissenters and naysayers, however, as their offered reasonings are so varied, it's difficult to know if they have genuine concerns or are just out to have fun or be intentionally disruptive...

[Barry]

2.8 people in 1,000 tests, positive.
The other 997.2 are not.
Still in the continuation of the November 5th lockdown.
5 months, nearly. Will it ever end or do the government love it too much to let it go?

[Scott777]

Herd immunity means that enough of the population has either been vaccinated or gained immunity through natural infection to stifle the spread of the virus.
Lockdowns play their part by reducing the spread of infection until the results of vaccination programmes kick in...

And the one you missed, which is innate immunity.

[Barry]

Perhaps some of you lockdown junkies can explain why we are still locked in our homes, since November 5th.
That's 4 flaming months locked down. In our area, there are no cases. No not one.

[Barry]

It depends which version of the W.H.O.'s herd immunity you believe.
Look how they changed it recently...