LOCKDOWN 2 - the November experience

[Borchester]

I actually think Boris does care at least a bit now, having had direct experience himself.  It's just that he's having to adjust from a pre-covid political landscape where he never thought he'd be in a position of having to care.

Also, being a U-turner might be an advantage in a changing situation where new knowledge is being gained all the time. After all, there was nothing in the Tory manifesto (or those of any other parties) last year about how they'd deal with a global pandemic.

We don't have a pandemic. Right now the death rate is less than 1 out of every 1500. This is not a plague. It is not the Black Death killing one in two, it is a particularly nasty attack of the flu that is thinning out a lot of folk who were going to die anyway.

If Boris has any plans to cut back on Christmas that is it as far as I am concerned.

[patman post]

I actually think Boris does care at least a bit now, having had direct experience himself.  It's just that he's having to adjust from a pre-covid political landscape where he never thought he'd be in a position of having to care.

Also, being a U-turner might be an advantage in a changing situation where new knowledge is being gained all the time. After all, there was nothing in the Tory manifesto (or those of any other parties) last year about how they'd deal with a global pandemic.

I guess we'd like to think Johnson's own experience has made him more caring for others — rather than just himself.
But has he demonstrated it has?

How U-turning is perceived is all to play for. Pushing the "we have to be guided by the science and events" line might work, though so far it's not been convincing.
And not detailing measures to deal with a pandemic is not really an excuse for failure. Parties drop manifesto commitments when it suits, and they are allowed to get away with it — so being able and capable leaders in an emergency should be part of the bargain...

[HDQQ]

To be fair to Boris, there is not a lot else he can do. The intelligent thing to do would be to say look, a few folk, mostly cottontops, are going to die but there is nothing that can be done so just get on and enjoy life. But he can't because that would make him look like an uncaring shit, which he is but which he can't admit to being.

In passing, plenty of kids turned up for Halloween. I reckon that if the nation's mums are prepared to let their tots go trick and treating then the bug must be past its best.

I actually think Boris does care at least a bit now, having had direct experience himself.  It's just that he's having to adjust from a pre-covid political landscape where he never thought he'd be in a position of having to care.

Also, being a U-turner might be an advantage in a changing situation where new knowledge is being gained all the time. After all, there was nothing in the Tory manifesto (or those of any other parties) last year about how they'd deal with a global pandemic.

[patman post]

Well the greatest definition of madness ever spoken, when one keeps doing the same things expecting a different outcome. Without doubt the Westminster party would be deemed fully insane.

Fully agree. Too late with the national lockdown first time. Too late this time — and too little. Phaffing around in Feb and Mar cost additional lives — and will this time.
But the major concern for Boris is his growing image of an indecisive U-turner among his MP's and the public, rather than a strong leader.
Even now, educationalists and community leaders in some of the hardest hit areas are calling for schools to be closed...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-teaching-union-calls-for-schools-to-be-closed-as-part-of-england-lockdown-12120428
https://aboutmanchester.co.uk/schools-should-close-during-november-circuit-breaker-says-burnham/

[Borchester]

Boris eventually went on TV to tell us the long lockdowns have not worked and we need to do it all over again.

Except it isn't.

We can go to work. We can go out and exercise. We can go shopping.

Why were all the projection slides worst case scenarios?

To be fair to Boris, there is not a lot else he can do. The intelligent thing to do would be to say look, a few folk, mostly cottontops, are going to die but there is nothing that can be done so just get on and enjoy life. But he can't because that would make him look like an uncaring shit, which he is but which he can't admit to being.

In passing, plenty of kids turned up for Halloween. I reckon that if the nation's mums are prepared to let their tots go trick and treating then the bug must be past its best.

[Sheepy]

Just a little fine tuning Barry, what can they get away with and what can't they.

[Barry]

Here is the graph they did not show any projections for:



If it is projected it shows the virus is slowing in infection rate and will soon be into the background along with Swine flu H1N1 . . . etc

[Barry]

What's still not known is how to end a lockdown.

We must end the lockdown when no one is dying in the country.
The state cannot protect us from death. We all die. This virus hastens it a bit. There are over 7 billion people on the planet. The virus has made no inroads into over population.
It's natural and humanity's over reaction will be seen as the worst example of foolishness in years to come, IMO.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

[Sheepy]

The previous lockdowns here and in other countries did work, infection levels came right down. What's still not known is how to end a lockdown. I'm not sure how effective this new lockdown will be if schools and colleges carry on as normal. I expect we'll know the answer to that in a couple of weeks.

One thing Boris Johnson failed to do in his announcement (as far as I'm aware) was to strongly urge people to adhere to the new lockdown rules immediately rather than to wait until they become compulsory on Thursday.
That might save a few hundred lives.

Funny old time Ducky, virus time, it happens every year, people even die from viruses, almost like they are airborne.
I might go as far as say, they are much more virulent with certain weather conditions. 

[HDQQ]

The previous lockdowns here and in other countries did work, infection levels came right down. What's still not known is how to end a lockdown. I'm not sure how effective this new lockdown will be if schools and colleges carry on as normal. I expect we'll know the answer to that in a couple of weeks.

One thing Boris Johnson failed to do in his announcement (as far as I'm aware) was to strongly urge people to adhere to the new lockdown rules immediately rather than to wait until they become compulsory on Thursday.
That might save a few hundred lives.

[Sheepy]

Boris eventually went on TV to tell us the long lockdowns have not worked and we need to do it all over again.

Except it isn't.

We can go to work. We can go out and exercise. We can go shopping.

Why were all the projection slides worst case scenarios?

Well the greatest definition of madness ever spoken, when one keeps doing the same things expecting a different outcome. Without doubt the Westminster party would be deemed fully insane.

[Nalaar]

Hopefully Northern Ireland will follow Englands lockdown soon.

Not overly impressed that they cut off the conference early so they could get back to entertainment television.

[Barry]

Until the virus creates a direct line to No 10 informing them what its intentions are there is no get out strategy. Each time we make plans the virus gets wind of it and changes course. This is a game that the virus is winning.

I know what you mean, but the virus has not changed tactics. All we have done is modify the trajectory of growth by the use of lockdowns and other measures.
The virus has one objective - replicate, which it does very efficiently.
If we had not had a lockdown we would now be on the path to equilibrium, or better, such as in Sweden.

The second wave is the result of lockdown. There will be a smaller 3rd wave as a result of lockdown. Until we stop focusing on it as though it is the only trick in town. Unmask all the shoppers, and get back to normal.

Stop protecting the NHS, we didn't create it to protect it. We created it to treat the sick.
I'm really angry about this 2nd lockdown. It may be no more successful than the first.

[Streetwalker]

Too true  I remember one daft witch last time going on social mejia had bought a cwt of chicken,mince,lots of other stuff bought a couple of massive chest freezers filled to the top posted pictures of it all and how proud she was,I just thought tossers did pity the electric doesn't go off for a couple of days.

Mind you it's the same around Christmas,shops shut a couple of days and people buy stuff like they'd be shut a month.

Apparently its some sort of psychosis of insecurity . Frightened people who shop to give the illusion that they have some sort of control  over something they have no control over

[T00ts]

Do we expect lockdown 3 to start around April-May, then number 4 this time next year, ad infinitum? Where is the exit strategy?

Until the virus creates a direct line to No 10 informing them what its intentions are there is no get out strategy. Each time we make plans the virus gets wind of it and changes course. This is a game that the virus is winning.