LOCKDOWN 2 - the November experience

[johnofgwent]

Oh dear, you're unsurprisingly bad a statistics and logic.

Being shot in the head is generally considered to have a very high fatality rate.

How many people died from headshots in the UK last year? Less than 30.

Given the 65m population of the UK that's a 0.00005% death rate

By your logic, being shot in the head carries a miniscule risk.

What is important* is the risk of death if you catch CV.

The site you reference shows 45m infections and 1m deaths, so the Infection fatality Rate is 2% from that (though those figures are a little shaky as not all infections or deaths are discovered)

*In the context of the current situation the hospitalisation rate is also important.

That varies between 1% for people in their 20's to 10% for the over 60s.

Even if it was 1% for the entire population, that's 650,000 people who need NHS beds for (say) a week over a period of a few months.  The NHS has around 100k beds suitable for CV patients and around 70-90k of those beds are already occupied by non-CV patients on any given day.

The additional problem not recorded in those figures is the degree to which they represent the population of each country that actually has the disease. The problem is clearly seen with the CDC figures for seasonal flu 2018. The CDC admit they have figures for deaths, figures for ICU treatments,figures for hospital admissions and figures for people who felt so Ill they called a doctor (and incurred a charge). They have NO reliable idea how many felt like shit but laughed it off and how many had no issue.


Without RELIABLE information how can we trust these numbers.


And that's before I chuck two more spanners, the fact the Covid test is now admitted to over report positives (a fair course of action preferable to the alternative) in declaring as positive people who have inert viral RNA in their nasal passages weeks after they recovered.


And then of course there's the NHS England stats SNAFU of saying you died of COVID if you were run d byown by a bus 59 days after a positive test you laughed off in a week.


To make me take these numbers seriously you need to seriously address these issues not ignore them as the sage millionaires to be are doing

[BeElBeeBub]

i notice none of the "it's just the flu" gang have commented on the actual figures.

So did all of NYC get CV back in April?  That would sink the idea of long term immunity as cases seem to be rising again

Has Borchester blown his own head off playing Russian roulette?

[Sheepy]

According to Ducky and beelblubber, we are always trying to nick their comfort blankets. At which point there is much dummy spitting.

[Borchester]

Hello Thomas
Well I live in Wales but my business premises are in England, so I get the best of both worlds
I am not unsympathetic to the Govts decision on this. Population of Wales, just over 3 million, population of England 60 million. Just making a major change for Wales made very little sense. But when putting England back on Lockdown it makes a lot of sense..

The problem is that regardless of the rules and regulations that the government push, no one is taking much notice. In my part of the world only about a third of the population wear masks and that is only when they are getting on buses or visiting Pappy.

As far as I can see there are three main groups.

Group one consists of selfish old bastards like me who have no intention of putting themselves out for anyone.

Group two which is made up of Beely and Duckie and who are concerned with the public welfare.

Group three which is made up of folk such as Tommy and Deppity whose main concern is hanging onto their jobs and feeding their families.

I think that the best approach would be for Group 1 to be left to fend for themselves and if they contract the Yellow Peril the world can say ha bloody ha. Meanwhile the decent sorts in Group 2 should pay extra tax to support any lose of earnings for those in Group 3

[Thomas]

Its quite clear to see now johnson has lost pretty much all credibility from what im reading within and without his party over covid 19 and his governments reaction to it. I have defended all governments in dealing with this virus , simply becasue we can see it s something unknown to them all and they are all across the western world running arounf like headless chickens dealing with it.

Not any more though.

Im also sick to death of all this "virtue signalling over death rates ". Its getting feckin silly now and almost like some parody christmas panto where beelebeeb quackers etc etc are screaming the virus is bad , and the  forum crowd are shouting back no its no!

Covid 19 in my opinion is worse than the flu , but no where near as bad as the likes of quackers is making out with his 3/4 % death rate.

[Sampanviking]

we were just discussing this on some of the scot forums....


"I doubt anyone in the UK has missed the 'SE English lives and jobs first' of the magic return to furlough.

The magic money tree exists for everyone south of the Watford gap."



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54766012

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-54769232

Hello Thomas
Well I live in Wales but my business premises are in England, so I get the best of both worlds
I am not unsympathetic to the Govts decision on this. Population of Wales, just over 3 million, population of England 60 million. Just making a major change for Wales made very little sense. But when putting England back on Lockdown it makes a lot of sense..

[Sheepy]

Oh head shots and plane crashes, well why didn't you say so, faultless logic, not.
And you wonder why, I don't take it on myself to get deeply involved. I have done my bit.

[BeElBeeBub]

No it ain't.

According to these guys...

  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The total deaths so far due to Covid 19 are 1.2 millions

The world's population is 7.8 billions.

Thus the chances of popping your clogs via this bug are one out of every six thousand five hundred, which in turn is like fighting the battle of the Somme and discovering that the only casualty came from Mademoiselle Fiffie biting Private Atkins in the dick.

Oh dear, you're unsurprisingly bad a statistics and logic.

Being shot in the head is generally considered to have a very high fatality rate.

How many people died from headshots in the UK last year? Less than 30.

Given the 65m population of the UK that's a 0.00005% death rate

By your logic, being shot in the head carries a miniscule risk.

What is important* is the risk of death if you catch CV.

The site you reference shows 45m infections and 1m deaths, so the Infection fatality Rate is 2% from that (though those figures are a little shaky as not all infections or deaths are discovered)

*In the context of the current situation the hospitalisation rate is also important.

That varies between 1% for people in their 20's to 10% for the over 60s.

Even if it was 1% for the entire population, that's 650,000 people who need NHS beds for (say) a week over a period of a few months.  The NHS has around 100k beds suitable for CV patients and around 70-90k of those beds are already occupied by non-CV patients on any given day.

[Borchester]

CV is not comparable with "the flu" it many times more deadly than the worst flu of recent years.

No it ain't.

According to these guys...

  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The total deaths so far due to Covid 19 are 1.2 millions

The world's population is 7.8 billions.

Thus the chances of popping your clogs via this bug are one out of every six thousand five hundred, which in turn is like fighting the battle of the Somme and discovering that the only casualty came from Mademoiselle Fiffie biting Private Atkins in the dick.

[BeElBeeBub]

The WHO estimated a week or so ago that 10% of the World population had been infected. (750,000,000) and at the time a million had died.
That's 1 in 750, which is comparable with seasonal flu.
Now tell me it is also age related, which we all know as the average age of death is 82+

Let's knock this one on the head (again)


Here are the CDC flu stats for the last decade

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

The worst year shown is 2017-18 where 61k people died (if you take the upper confidence limit maybe as high as 95k) over the November to April period.

So far CV has killed 220k over a similar period despite it being summer and despite unprecedented measures.

Now let's turn to New York

That has a population of 8.4m and had 19k deaths in the first wave.

Even if you assume every single person in NYC has caught CV already, that's an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.2%, or 1 in 500.

Clearly not everybody in New York had CV in the spring.  The best estimates are no higher than 20%, which brings the IFR to around 1%, several times more deadly than the flu.

The report you are probably referencing takes the IFRs from various studies (of varying quality) around the world to try to create a global one (there are some methodological issues but we'll put them to one side)

One of the studies (one of the bigger ones) is the UK's which puts the IFR at around 1% (1.15% from memory).

CV is not comparable with "the flu" it many times more deadly than the worst flu of recent years.

[Thomas]

Anyone reading back through your posts would be forgiven for concluding that you are a right-winger. You like to keep saying I'm undemocratic based on deliberate misinterpretation of a few things I've said in the past - well, that works both ways.

No one has ever called me right wing on this forum with the sole exception of you.........if anything many folk think im a left winger.

You are anti democratic by your own words......im not the only person who has picked you up on your anti democratic ramblings on this and other forums......many many posters have .

Im not afraid of demcoracy....you are as we have proved time and again , and you cant take a beating or accept a majority result , and demand more referendums before the result is implemented when you lose.

Your latest whinge about covid 19 just about sums up your attitude .

[HDQQ]

im not a right winger.

...and as far as i can see no one is angry with you.

Most of us are laughing at you wetting the bed as normal in fear of the big bad world outside your doorstep.

I dread to think the state you will be in if trump gets re elected , and as for brexit in 8 weeks time..........

Anyone reading back through your posts would be forgiven for concluding that you are a right-winger. You like to keep saying I'm undemocratic based on deliberate misinterpretation of a few things I've said in the past - well, that works both ways.

[Thomas]

Nice try ducky, but as usual you dropped yourself in it, with statements like "nobody will die from lockdown", which is a blatant lie.

i think they are taking the piss sheep.

[Thomas]

pappysmurf is back!!!


quackers and smurf comedy duo showering us with their wise words of despair.....




we are all doomed i tell ye!

[Sheepy]

Nice try ducky, but as usual you dropped yourself in it, with statements like "nobody will die from lockdown", which is a blatant lie.