LOCKDOWN 2 - the November experience

[Borchester]

Borchester  I am fed up with your constant stupidity and idiocy. I am NOT hiding under the (expletive deleted,) bed.

The Tories have been deliberately underfunding the NHS in preparation for American Health Insurance companies to take it over.

Well, if you are fit and well get on your bike and offer to help Streetwalker out. He has had the flu, but rather than make a fuss has just gotten on with things. Even so, I dare say he could do with an extra hod carrier or two. Speaking as a friend, I have to say that fresh air and exercise will do your more good than this marathon of self pity you seem to be relying on.

[papasmurf]

If the Tories spent all the money in all the world on the NHS I reckon that in ten years you would still be hiding under the bed.

Borchester  I am fed up with your constant stupidity and idiocy. I am NOT hiding under the (expletive deleted,) bed.

The Tories have been deliberately underfunding the NHS in preparation for American Health Insurance companies to take it over.

[Borchester]

The NHS is always close to being overwhelmed in the winter with flu cases. We didn't have to be locked up in our own homes to "protect the NHS".
The difference is now that the staff are wandering about dressed in lots of PPE whereas normally they would not have cared too much about transmission.
There's a case for Covid +ve patients to be treated by staff who have +ve antibody tests, but that would be using intelligence.

You sound like someone who has worked for the NHS 

Good hearts, no bloody sense.

[Borchester]

After 10 years of defunding by the Tories, causing staff shortages, doctrinal privatisations of some NHS functions like homecare, it is no wonder the NHS is constantly close to being overwhelmed.
Locally all homecare was privatised some time ago resulting bed blocking and a load of other problems.

If the Tories spent all the money in all the world on the NHS I reckon that in ten years you would still be hiding under the bed.

[Barry]

The NHS is always close to being overwhelmed in the winter with flu cases. We didn't have to be locked up in our own homes to "protect the NHS".
The difference is now that the staff are wandering about dressed in lots of PPE whereas normally they would not have cared too much about transmission.
There's a case for Covid +ve patients to be treated by staff who have +ve antibody tests, but that would be using intelligence.

[Borchester]

If we let CV run unrestricted it would be the biggest casue of death in the UK for 2020.

We are letting the bug run unrestricted because there is nothing we can do about it.

If you stood still for eight hours before removing your face mask its snot ridden interior would contain enough viruses to fill the two metre bubble that is supposed to separate you and the next chap.

Whatever happens there is no way to contain the Sino Snot until it decides to burn itself out. There are only two ways to handle the business. You can follow your preferred policy of running around, excreting hot slabs of concrete and generally letting the side down, or you can just get on with life which is what most of us are doing.

Neither policy will make much odds, but I suspect that the latter will have more fun than the former.

[papasmurf]

Everything overwhelms the NHS in days.

After 10 years of defunding by the Tories, causing staff shortages, doctrinal privatisations of some NHS functions like homecare, it is no wonder the NHS is constantly close to being overwhelmed.
Locally all homecare was privatised some time ago resulting bed blocking and a load of other problems.

[Borchester]

It will also overwhelm the NHS within days.

Everything overwhelms the NHS in days.

[papasmurf]

If we let CV run unrestricted it would be the biggest casue of death in the UK for 2020.

It will also overwhelm the NHS within days.

[BeElBeeBub]

I have never heard of that approach. Maybe we were sitting in different classes?

My view is the important point is how few have died. As I have said before, it is one dead out of fifteen hundred. A bit like watching thirty buses pass by and then grandpa having a heart attack because he can't find his bus pass and might have to you know, gulp, pay.

In practise the world figure is one out of six thousand five hundred, which is sod all. So we come back to our original point which is that Tommy and Deppity should be sent back to work so as to keep the economy going and you should pay their lost earnings because if you are going to spend your life hiding under the bed, you must have pots of money put by.

Clearly we did.

you are arguing that CV isnt a big threat so we don't need these restrictions by using the low number of deaths due to there being restrictions as an argument for how unlikely you are to die from CV.

If we let CV run unrestricted it would be the biggest casue of death in the UK for 2020.

Is that dangerous enough?

[BeElBeeBub]

you are contradicting yourself here again , and putting forth a straw man argument.

First of all who has assumed the whole of the uk has already had covid 19? I havent heard this on any news platform media outlet or forum i have been on . At best may be 10 % or so of the uk in total may have had it?

AFAIK nobody is arguing all the UK has had it because that is patently stupid.

However that puts the lowest the IFR rate could possibly be (in the obviously unrealistic case of everyone having had it) at around 0.1%.

If we take the 10% ONS figure you mention (which is reasonable) then we have around 6.5m infections and 54k deaths which implies an IFR of just over 0.8%, well above flu and not that far from the oft quoted 1% and well above the 1/780 figure mentioned.

Secondly , the contradiction is even if the whole uk had already had it , you were arguing earlier on immunity might not last , hence why there will be a second and third wave.

yes. if you assume the 2nd wave infections are all reinfections because we have all had it (again, a stupid argument) then that implies immunity has faded.

My point is that there is a large strand of argument that says "2nd lockdown is all unnecessary because enough of us had it asymptomatically in the 1st wave we have reached herd immunity". 

That argument doesnt fit with the facts.  Either we haven't all had it *or* immunity fades fast.  Either way the "Herd immunity has been reached" argument is false.

The question is how does the world deal with covid 19 without any vaccine? Do you think continual non stop lcokdowns and restictions are the answer while sitting on our hands praying for a vaccine or the virus goes away at some point in the future?

that's an excellent question but there are reasonable prospects of a vaccine being forthcoming.  Several are on phase 3 trials. 

*If* it turns our there is no hope for a vaccine solution (we cant find one or the ones we do find don't last long enough) then we have a choice to make.  But I don't feel that decision point is yet.

As for what owe can do absent a vaccine - what S.Korea, Japan, Vietnam,NZ and others have done.  Stamp out the virus, prevent it gaining a foot hold.

Lockdowns are a sign of failure.  I don't want them any more than I want to jump out of an aeroplane with a parachute.  but if the plane is going down then we have no option.

Bandying about figures and pulling them left right and centre to political point score means feck all.

what political point am i scoring?  This isnt a left or right issue. 

The most political point I could make is the current government has royally ballsed this up.  Are you going to ride to Johnson's defence?

[papasmurf]

I have never heard of that approach. Maybe we were sitting in different classes?

My view is the important point is how few have died. As I have said before, it is one dead out of fifteen hundred.

Not if you compare the deaths with those infected.

[Borchester]

If you have a degree in mathematics and know more about statistics than anyone else here then you will know the correct way to describe fatality of a disease is not the number dying divided by the population.

I have never heard of that approach. Maybe we were sitting in different classes?

My view is the important point is how few have died. As I have said before, it is one dead out of fifteen hundred. A bit like watching thirty buses pass by and then grandpa having a heart attack because he can't find his bus pass and might have to you know, gulp, pay.

In practise the world figure is one out of six thousand five hundred, which is sod all. So we come back to our original point which is that Tommy and Deppity should be sent back to work so as to keep the economy going and you should pay their lost earnings because if you are going to spend your life hiding under the bed, you must have pots of money put by.

[Thomas]

Apparently at the end of June only 6% of the population had had Covid-19. 

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3224

thats england only , beely was talking uk wide.

Even so , if the uk wide figure for covid cases is around 6 - 10% , it makes a mockery of the official death rate of 3/4% quack quack was getting hysterical about.

so we go back to what is being argued ,by and large the virus is no where near as dealy as is being made out , so what do governments do about it?

[papasmurf]

It is also problematic to assume everyone in the UK has already had CV because that begs the question as to why there is a 2nd wave.

Apparently at the end of June only 6% of the population had had Covid-19. 

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3224