Covid-19: 'Stay in lockdown until R number is below 1' - Keir Starmer

[Javert]

A few folk, mostly oldies, have popped their clogs and you have decided to run round like a blue bummed fly as a result.

I'm not really clear where you get all these assumptions from.  I'm pretty calm, and I'm not running around doing anything.

To me it seems like most of the people getting very angry and running around, are the ones who don't want to follow temporary rules and want to turn it into a huge issue.  No doubt these are the same people who would have argued against using blackout restrictions in WW2, and I strongly suspect that if in the UK it had been normal to wear facemasks out and about for the last 50 years, and suddenly they were told this was not allowed anymore, they would be the exact same people saying it was their ancient liberty to continue wearing their mask.

In fact, many of those refusing to wear masks are often the exact same people who previously insisted that Muslims should not be allowed to wear face coverings in public places.

[Nick]

there are fears it's now managing to mutate

Fears? Is that people sitting around worrying that it may mutate or have they seen any evidence of it?

[Borchester]

Source?  I'd like some more background, commentary, and context to that?  Until I see all the details I am not totally convinced that every one of their deaths was "utterly unrelated" as you assert, although I can certainly believe that there are some small fraction of the people diagnosed with Covid who then died from a completely unrelated cause, and I find that number quite high just for one month of July in which there weren't many deaths from Covid anyway - did you say it was in July only?  If so I need to source that as I even suspect that is more than the entire number of Covid deaths in July which wouldn't make any sense, so something must be incorrect there.

It does not matter what evidence you are shown. A few folk, mostly oldies, have popped their clogs and you have decided to run round like a blue bummed fly as a result. There is nothing wrong with that although come to think on it, there is a lot wrong with it, being undignified to start with.

Anyway, I have just gotten back from the shops and have noticed that the womenfolk have started to wear masks with funny faces on them. This bug has become a fashion statement. If we could just persuade the lasses that they need more Vitamin D and should therefore do their shopping in bikinis that would be another step in the right direction. 

[Javert]

No, 4500 people died of something UTTERLY UNRELATED to the fact they had within the previous 60 days had a positive COVID test.
4,500 people were tested positive, were clinically disgnosed as recovered, went out and got on with their lives and then had those lives ended in circumstances and through means UTTERLY UNRELATED to their having been tested positive, their death certificates had NO mention of a possible contribution of COVID to their demise, and yet the government added them ti the COVID body pile
These were totally separate from those where a doctor had certified on the death certificate that in their opinion and professional judgement COVID played some contribution to the circumstance in which their lives ended

Source?  I'd like some more background, commentary, and context to that?  Until I see all the details I am not totally convinced that every one of their deaths was "utterly unrelated" as you assert, although I can certainly believe that there are some small fraction of the people diagnosed with Covid who then died from a completely unrelated cause, and I find that number quite high just for one month of July in which there weren't many deaths from Covid anyway - did you say it was in July only?  If so I need to source that as I even suspect that is more than the entire number of Covid deaths in July which wouldn't make any sense, so something must be incorrect there.

[johnofgwent]

So 4500 people in July were hit by an electric bus whilst out training for a marathon after contracting covid within the previous 28 days?  Can I have the names?

No, 4500 people died of something UTTERLY UNRELATED to the fact they had within the previous 60 days had a positive COVID test.
4,500 people were tested positive, were clinically disgnosed as recovered, went out and got on with their lives and then had those lives ended in circumstances and through means UTTERLY UNRELATED to their having been tested positive, their death certificates had NO mention of a possible contribution of COVID to their demise, and yet the government added them ti the COVID body pile
These were totally separate from those where a doctor had certified on the death certificate that in their opinion and professional judgement COVID played some contribution to the circumstance in which their lives ended

[patman post]

Could be a problem in the House of Lords.

'Stoatally different — though weaselly confused...

[Javert]

Saying it is fine, suggests complicity. However, it is fine that people die of natural causes.

Even where it can be prevented?

[Barry]

So if it was 1000 per day that would be fine?

Saying it is fine, suggests complicity. However, it is fine that people die of natural causes.

[Javert]

Covid is nothing like as bad as it is being made out end of story.

What makes you think that?

Also, if Covid is nothing like as bad as made out, where is the motive?  If the governments of the world, including the UK are unnecessarily imposing these restrictions, causing economic damage and so on, and it's all not necessary and overblown, what is their motive?  Why would any government cause such economic damage?  Why is nearly every government doing it considering if it's all overblown, any one government could steak a big competitive march on their rivals but not having any restrictions?

As I recall also, the 4000 deaths a day was one model where they presented a whole series of models on a graph to show the point that they have lots of different groups doing modelling and that they have various different models going forward, none of which should be considered as a forecast beyond about 4-6 weeks out.

The other point they are trying to get across is that once it gets out of control and you are looking at 1000 or more deaths per day, it's exponentially more difficult and damaging to get it back under control (case study New Zealand).

Let's say out of all those models on the graph, the lowest one is the chosen forecast and all the others were removed - is that ok then?  Is that worth it?

I guess the other question is, what do you think will happen once it hits that peak if no further measures are taken - will it just go down again really fast, or will it say at 1000 per day or whatever for weeks or months?  What is your scientific evidence for your opinion on that?

Will there then be a third wave?  Will it be worse or not as bad as previous?  As I recall Borchester predicted it would all be over in July and we would be preparing our Christmas Stockings by now.

Also, is it your opinion that if we had done nothing at all other than tell people to wash their hands and try and keep away from each other, the results would have been pretty much the same as what we have today other than no economic damage?  If so, do you have any scientific experts to back that?

[Thomas]

So if it was 1000 per day that would be fine?

Stop the hysteria. Calmly discuss the issue.

If we cant , then we are basically back where we have been for the last four years or so with brexit , shouting at each other and talking past each other whilst entrenching opinions.

Covid is nothing like as bad as it is being made out end of story. The 4000 a day deaths is a clear example of the over the top figures and narrative we have been hearing since the start of the year. Its wearing thin now.

Covid is an issue for certain groups , no doubt  ,   but wether or not it enough of an issue to justify lockiing down society  , restricting freedoms , etc im not sure.

The longer it goes on , the more restless society is becoming , and yet again javert , you are on the wrong side of the ever growing public opinion.

[Javert]

no but the 4000 people dying a day figure used to justify englands latest lockdown was as the regulator said (more) pie in the sky covid figures used to spread fear and hysteria.

So if it was 1000 per day that would be fine?

[Thomas]

So 4500 people in July were hit by an electric bus whilst out training for a marathon after contracting covid within the previous 28 days?  Can I have the names?

no but the 4000 people dying a day figure used to justify englands latest lockdown was as the regulator said (more) pie in the sky covid figures used to spread fear and hysteria.

[Javert]

Common enough for the death toll figures in July to be reduced by four thousand five hundred.

Or are you going to call Boris a liar ?

So 4500 people in July were hit by an electric bus whilst out training for a marathon after contracting covid within the previous 28 days?  Can I have the names?

[johnofgwent]

Who's to say with certainty that Covid didn't disturb the balance of your mind?

There's still so much more to learn about the immediate and long-term effects on this virus — there are fears it's now managing to mutate in mink to a changed form that can infect humans...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54818615

Yeah I saw that story. I'll be following it with interest.
I told the wife it might be possible to get a really cheap mink coat for her next birthday as millions of the little buggers are about to be slaughtered ...

[johnofgwent]

Bojo-The-Clown and the truth are strangers.

Maybe so, but are you then telling me the statement that 4,500 deaths that were sod all to do with covid were added to the death list was an untruth ??