C19 Spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', docs show

[Borg Refinery]

Perhaps you might explain how a lockdown started on 5th November started a reduction in figures for the week ending 30th October. Was the virus responding to hearing threats of a lockdown? 

No it was the localized lockdowns in place pre the England wide lockdown.

Again, I don't agree with current policy but that doesn't matter or it shouldn't matter as we supposedly have the Oxford vaccine now anyway don't we, did they finish the clinical trial's final stage?

If we have to take it twice or thrice a year to avoid lockdown, ok by me. Supposedly the antibodies to fight the virus 'rapidly decline' and herd immunity isn't at all possible.

[Barry]

Well good news, the lockdown has stabilised it a bit.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-54841375

I don't agree with a whole England-wide lockdown but a silver lining at least.

Perhaps you might explain how a lockdown started on 5th November started a reduction in figures for the week ending 30th October. Was the virus responding to hearing threats of a lockdown? 

[Borg Refinery]

Well good news, the lockdown has stabilised it a bit.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-54841375

I don't agree with a whole England-wide lockdown but a silverlining at least.

[Barry]

But it isn't (spreading faster that is) because instead of comparing like with like (Actual detected new infections) they are comparing ONS estimates of new infections which are made up on the spot. We never have reached the what was it, 49,000 new positive tests a day. It reached 25k at one point and is now descending.

If the government showed some truth and transparency we might respect them a bit.

[Borg Refinery]

new coronavirus variant spreading across Europe: A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries — and more than 80 per cent in the UK. An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations has described the extraordinary spread of the variant, called 20A.EU1, in a research paper to be published on Thursday.

- FT

Thank F@@@ for that.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1

[Borg Refinery]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775

Covid is spreading "significantly" faster through England than even the government's predicted "worst-case" scenario, documents reveal.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says there are around four times as many people catching Covid than anticipated.

A "reasonable worst-case scenario" is used by officials and the NHS to plan for the months ahead.

It had estimated 85,000 deaths from Covid over the course of winter.

But an official Sage document, dated 14 October and published today, reveals we are in a worse position than expected.

Scientists crunching the numbers estimated that, by mid-October, there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected with coronavirus every day in England.

Their report said: "This is significantly above the profile of the reasonable worst-case scenario, where the number of daily infections in England remained between 12,000-13,000 throughout October."
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Yay! Infect us all! Smother your infecty germs all over py soft skin... ok I need a cold shower now..