Who’s next?

[GerryT]

I am fully aware of WTO trade, so why did you say this?

I doubt that, just look at your silly u-turn comment which I now have to explain like your 12yrs old so you get it.

Not a u-turn then Gerry !!

Countries can trade how they like but most sign up to WTO, for this example lets say 100% of all trade is done under WTO.
A provision under WTO lets countries setup preferential trade between each other provided that's done under an international binding agreement in the form of a FTA or bilateral agreements. (are you still with me). This trade is no longer "trading under WTO" as the goal of the FTA or bilateral agreement is to remove tariffs and the WTO imposes tariffs.
So to say 84% of trade is done as a block outside the EU is totally misleading. The block outside the EU is the WTO, and yes all countries are signed up to that block bt most countries have FTA's and trade that way.

You should go do some research and find out for each country how much of their trade is done under a FTA, bilateral agreement or other such arrangement and what's left is pure WTO trade. I can tell you for a fact it's not 84%, and that's why you were misleading, but you made the claim so you go figure out the actual number. If it's not 84% then what is it ? Outside the EU how much trade is done under WTO members as pure WTO trade, because outside FTA's that's what's up for grabs. If you don't like the term WTO then we can as you like to call them, call them "The Block"

[Sheepy]

We gained free independence not that long ago and we still are today free. No rush to go back to being enslaved.

Yet you are here on behalf of the EU and spout anything they say, amusing Gerry. With a few feck you English thrown in for good measure, gotta keep the Republicans believing.

[GerryT]

To get back to the OP I think there are a number of candidates who could well push to leave given half a chance, particularly those who have known real independence, but I will nominate Ireland.

This should be good.
But just to note. We gained free independence not that long ago and we still are today free. No rush to go back to being enslaved.

Now that we are out and once we are free (although that depends very much on just what BJ is going to give away this week) Ireland I think looks in an almost untenable position. Geographically they will be on the edge. Their routes to the EU will be more difficult than now although the likes of Gerry will insist that they have things in place, and more, to be able to wave us gleefully goodbye. Somehow the constant posts vilifying our actions both past and present tells me that perhaps there is far more concern than they want to let on.

Why would you think we are in an untenable position where 10% of our exports go to the UK. But the UK has the land of unicorns in January when 43% of UK exports go to the EU, how did you work that out. We manage with the 90% of our exports going to the EU and further afield today, absolutely no reason why that won't be exactly the same in January. Plus the UK will continue buy from Ireland, why buy Australian beef by sea, roughly 13,750 miles away and a trip that takes 100 days, unless your going to charter a plane, easyjet could do with the business.

For a long while Varadkar had the EU ear and played a strong game but once France and Germany realise how unimportant they are in their grand scheme things as political union progresses, I am afraid they will wilt into the shadows. Appreciating the Irish fighting spirit that could well spark some Guy Fawkes moments in Brussels. The EU is quite nicely strategically bound together I just can't see them rating Ireland in future and after all Ireland only really joined because we did. What do they really bring to the EU party? (Before Gerry goes on the attack I do have my tongue in my cheek but there is a certain logic I feel)

You don't grasp the EU, the NI issue will not be going anywhere. Your going to have to adjust your thinking. Ireland is far more important to the EU than the UK is.
But on the subject, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has warned that the economic cost of a no-deal Brexit would be bigger in the long term than the damage caused by Covid-19. Is that real enough, other EU countries are watching, some with popcorn. As this unfolds any very slight possibility of a country joining the UK will very quickly vanish for a long time.
I agree Hungary is an unpredictable place, seemingly the current leader is looking to drag the country back to corruption. But a 2019 poll shows 75% of people think the EU is a great place to be. So the USA had a madman in charge, he's now history. The UK has a fool and he's probably finished next year and Hungary has a lunatic, don't know about him he's been around a long time but hopefully he's gone soon as he's not representing his people.

[Nick]

Quote from: Nick on November 23, 2020, 07:36:26 pm
Another complete u-turn from where you scoffed about trading on WTO rules.

Nick, WTO is how countries trade outside the EU, unless they have FTA's. Nobody wants to trade on WTO, it's why only 1 country in the world does this solely. In January the majority of UK trade will be done under the WTO. So where's the U-Turn.

I am fully aware of WTO trade, so why did you say this?

Also I'd love to see how you thing 84% of global trade is done under WTO terms unless your counting FTA's recognised by the WTO which are actually outside the WTO trading terms and very misleading if that's what your doing.

Not a u-turn then Gerry !!

[GerryT]

Another complete u-turn from where you scoffed about trading on WTO rules.

Nick, WTO is how countries trade outside the EU, unless they have FTA's. Nobody wants to trade on WTO, it's why only 1 country in the world does this solely. In January the majority of UK trade will be done under the WTO. So where's the U-Turn.

Again, I didn%u2019t mention FTA%u2019s or WTO, you did.
84% of all trade is not within the EU, address that Gerry and stop with the StrawMan act.

You don't seem to be grasping the subject Nick. The basics have been pointed out, leave the EU and trade with the rest of the world under WTO. Start signing off FTA's and move more trade away from the WTO, the goal being 100% through FTA's.

Now the more complicated bit.
What countries do you export to, that's the risk area. You control your imports and the tariffs applied to those imports so not a concern. The exports brings money in rather than leaving your country and that's the focus.
Where do you export to and how much of all UK exports will move onto equal or better trading terms in January ? do you know ?
Goods trading is heavily infulenced by Geography. The further away the country the less trade is done. Where is the UK looking to expand it's trade-the northern or southern hemisphere ?
Finally if your current products are geared for a high earning developed country, and your looking to divert your exports from that country to another, you won't have much luck selling those goods to your new FTA's signed with Kenya or Kosavo.

So this 84% block, which doesn't have a name. With the EU, China & USA accounting for about 60% of all global trade and no sign of the UK having deals there. Where is the UK focused on, the Japan deal is looking like a bag of poop, details of the others not out yet.

[patman post]

Are you suggesting a successful Brexit won't wet the appetite other EU members?

Possibly ....

when it proves to be so...

[Nick]

Are they hoping they'll have an effect on EU members?

Are you suggesting a successful Brexit won't wet the appetite other EU members?

[patman post]

For years, the UK's arguments and Ukip's agitation in the EU have given plenty of scope for others to help whip up rebellion and push for desertion. So far, though, very few others appear to seriously consider that leaving is a way forward.
Even Greece, which has tax fiddling as a way of life (but without the finesse of Italian business and politics), has kept faith with the EU which imposed stringent conditions on the bail-out.

I don't doubt there's going to be future changes in the EU. But why are ardent Leavers so desperately trying to deflect attention away from the inevitable difficulties now facing the UK, whatever severance deal it negotiates?
Are they hoping they'll have an effect on EU members?
I reckon the time for calling out: "Come on in the water's lovely", will be when it proves to be so...

[Borchester]

Mod Notice
Went a bit off topic about Ireland's potato famine and somehow ended up in Montana  so moved it all to a new thread (forget the past) and its in general chat.

Which does raise an interesting point.

There was a TV series a while back wnen a bunch of re enactors went off to Montana to live out the life of 1880 settlers.

The poor sods did not have a chance. They took masses of live stock with them and spent most of their time cutting hay for winter feed, when the intelligent thing to do would have been to plant mega quantities of spuds (which is a bloody sight easier) and then slaughter the animals to see them through the winter. But the poor buggers had been set up to fail.

[cromwell]

Mod Notice
Went a bit off topic about Ireland's potato famine and somehow ended up in Montana  so moved it all to a new thread (forget the past) and its in general chat.

[T00ts]

To get back to the OP I think there are a number of candidates who could well push to leave given half a chance, particularly those who have known real independence, but I will nominate Ireland.

Now that we are out and once we are free (although that depends very much on just what BJ is going to give away this week) Ireland I think looks in an almost untenable position. Geographically they will be on the edge. Their routes to the EU will be more difficult than now although the likes of Gerry will insist that they have things in place, and more, to be able to wave us gleefully goodbye. Somehow the constant posts vilifying our actions both past and present tells me that perhaps there is far more concern than they want to let on.

For a long while Varadkar had the EU ear and played a strong game but once France and Germany realise how unimportant they are in their grand scheme things as political union progresses, I am afraid they will wilt into the shadows. Appreciating the Irish fighting spirit that could well spark some Guy Fawkes moments in Brussels. The EU is quite nicely strategically bound together I just can't see them rating Ireland in future and after all Ireland only really joined because we did. What do they really bring to the EU party? (Before Gerry goes on the attack I do have my tongue in my cheek but there is a certain logic I feel)

[Nick]

When you say "block" outside the EU, in trade terms for the UK that's the WTO. Unless you think the UK is going to leave WTO and trade outside that, like the madman of the globe.

Another complete u-turn from where you scoffed about trading on WTO rules.

Also I'd love to see how you thing 84% of global trade is done under WTO terms unless your counting FTA's recognised by the WTO which are actually outside the WTO trading terms and very misleading if that's what your doing.

Again, I didn't mention FTA's or WTO, you did.
84% of all trade is not within the EU, address that Gerry and stop with the StrawMan act.

[GerryT]

So very nice of you,but I and I suspect most of my countrymen have nothing to be forgiven for.

What I wrote was I'm not talking about you or this generation but possibly your grandparents so why would you apologise. The Queen came over in 2011 and came very close to an apology but seen as Blair had apologised to the Irish people o behalf of the UK in 1997 she prob didn't feel the need.
Oh and being pedantic you can leave the and I out.

Don't flatter yourself ,couldn't give a toss really

Well that's obvious

No my Grand dad was busy being gassed by the Germans in France and his Brother got his head blown off at the Somme,mind one of his sisters had the cheek to marry a man from the north of ireland and my great great gran was from the south.
Oh and being pedantic it's their not there.

Oh and being pedantic it's Ireland not ireland.

We did,we joined a common market that morphed in to a political union without our consent.

That's def. not true, the morphing as you put it, was driven by the EU members, the UK being one and at that time a very influential one. In fact when the EU took a direction the UK didn't like, such as Schengen or the Euro, then the UK just opted out. And the UK had many opt-out's

You're the one stuck in the past recounting ad nauseum the failings of the English, we've moved on. Well when the Frau or Herr says jump and your man says how high we all see where the delusions lie.

There's your delusion, again spouting the same nonsense that the "Frau or Herr" rule the EU. No matter how many times it's pointed out to you.

And you don't get it or move on,like the Irish americans,still hating,who has been exploiting of late Gerry and why don't they move on and be just Americans,still you like to tell us how they'll make us suffer.

That's rich, the UK trying to trample over it's recently agreed international treaty and when the EU and USA point out to you that if the UK persists then they both have no intention of agreeing a FTA. Perfectly reasonable. Their not making you suffer if that's how you feel. The UK is doing that to themselves.

I've worked in Deutschland,yeah and met some real nutters though the younger ones were more amiable. No Gerry,are you sure? here perhaps to gloat when you hope we'll fall on our arse.

Far from it, my expectation of how brexit would pan out is pretty much how it's unfolding. But I did think a deal would be done. But there's still time for Johnson to do another one of his famous 180's, so while a deal is still possible it's probably less likely now.

[DeppityDawg]

Bloody eck cromwell, you sound full of rage in that post.

It's not like you, you're normally rather considered and thoughtful and well, I don't think your post there does you justice

Oh I don't know. Cromwells been posting here (I mean all the forums) for longer than I can remember, and he's more than capable of looking after himself. And to be fair to him, Gerry's obsession with a country he continually claims he doesn't give a shit about is just a front for his own less than "considered" motives. He's better at hiding it these days, but the mask has slipped a few times. He'd be a natural for your new thread...

[cromwell]

Bloody eck cromwell, you sound full of rage in that post.

Rage? ermm no but slung a few home truths to Gerry,like the fact so many of those awful English got a lot of different blood in them,no definitely no rage,a hint of sarcasm perhaps.

One thing for sure don't hate the Irish,Scots or any of our european neighbours....in fact not big on hating at all......I leave that to others.