Widespread Covid Infections found in US as early as Dec 13th 2019

Started by Sampanviking, December 12, 2020, 10:29:47 AM

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patman post

^^^
I was quoting your link. Nowhere does your link, which you cited to support your claim that Covid was in the US in December, actually support your claim — it says it's info suggests the virus was in the US before January 19, 2020.
If you're now rubbishing the authorship of your source material, I suggest you need to do further research...
On climate change — we're talking, we're beginning to act, but we're still not doing enough...

Sampanviking

Quote from: patman post on January 08, 2021, 04:29:38 PM
From your link:

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 disease, was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, with subsequent worldwide spread. The first U.S. cases were identified in January 2020.
Conclusions
These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to January 19, 2020.


From WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Situation Report – 94

The first human cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19, subsequently named SARS-CoV-2were first reported by officials in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019. Retrospective investigations by Chinese authorities have identified human cases with onset of symptoms in early December 2019. While some of the earliest known cases had a link to a wholesale food market in Wuhan, some did not. Many of the initial patients were either stall owners, market employees, or regular visitors to this market. Environmental samples taken from this market in December 2019 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, further suggesting that the market in Wuhan City was the source of this outbreak or played a role in the initial amplification of the outbreak. The market was closed on 1 January 2020.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200423-sitrep-94-covid-19.pdf#:~:text=The%20first%20human%20cases%20of,%2C%20in%20December%202019.

Wuhan in China appears to be the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and that it has a zoonotic source. China's initial clamp down on info seems to support this. It's subsequent uncharacteristic detailed and fulsome (and admittedly welcome and helpful) follow up of information was an action typical of "saving face".

There is no indication that COVID-19 originated anywhere outside China, which announced the disease in December 2019. It was found elsewhere in January 2020 in patients all proved to have had physical links to China or travellers from China...

What your saying is in fact Absurd in the true sense of the word.
First of all, I will bring your attention to a footnote in the Preface

QuoteThis work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

So the report is produced by a US Government which as policy -
a)  blames the outbreak on China
b)  Claims it won the Presidential Election by a landslide.

The US Government did not however produce or analyse the data, which actually tells a very different story.
It is no doubt the difference in this story which explains why this report has not been headline news, in the MSM.
I have no doubt that if they had found no traces of infection during the time period, it would have trumpeted as loudly as possible as proof of a Chinese origin.

You really should watch the Nat Rich video,as he puts the Chinese timeline and this report into context.
By the time the Chinese had controlled the outbreak in April 2020, they had had about one million infections nationwide, the overwhelming majority of which were Asymptomatic. The vast majority of all these cases were in Wuhan and its immediate environs, while the remainder out that area was statistically insignificant on a national population scale and confined to a few secondary outbreak clusters in some of the other major cities.

The fact is and will remain, that by the time the first cases in the Wuhan outbreak were being noted and investigated, blood samples taken across all areas of the US, were already containing Covid antibodies by early December. This means infections across the US from at least mid November and it will take time for one outbreak to spread to all areas of the country.

It is logically impossible for the US to have widespread infection rates nationwide at about or above 1% of the population in November and for a outbreak to start in Wuhan in December and for China to be the source of the initial cross over infection. It can only mean, that the infection was in the US first.

Nick

Quote from: Sampanviking on January 08, 2021, 02:07:14 PM
Read the report Nick. Its pretty clear that Wuhan was an outbreak and that the virus was not widespread in China and because of the Government Response did not become widespread in China.
The reality is, that before the Wuhan outbreak occurred, there were already up to 5 million US Citizens already infected throughout all areas of the country.

So unless the virus can also time travel..........

Nothing that proves the source wasn't China.
If you go along with conspiracy theorists, there is nothing stoping a group of 30 Chinese for example going on a holiday to the US with the express purpose of spreading the virus.

Not saying that it was but your scenario of 5 million cases doesn't disprove it.
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

patman post

Quote from: Sampanviking on December 12, 2020, 10:29:47 AMLink to article and full report
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

This is saying that Covid 19 was already well established throughout the US before Dec 13th 2019
From your link:

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 disease, was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, with subsequent worldwide spread. The first U.S. cases were identified in January 2020.
Conclusions
These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to January 19, 2020.


From WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Situation Report – 94

The first human cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19, subsequently named SARS-CoV-2were first reported by officials in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019. Retrospective investigations by Chinese authorities have identified human cases with onset of symptoms in early December 2019. While some of the earliest known cases had a link to a wholesale food market in Wuhan, some did not. Many of the initial patients were either stall owners, market employees, or regular visitors to this market. Environmental samples taken from this market in December 2019 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, further suggesting that the market in Wuhan City was the source of this outbreak or played a role in the initial amplification of the outbreak. The market was closed on 1 January 2020.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200423-sitrep-94-covid-19.pdf#:~:text=The%20first%20human%20cases%20of,%2C%20in%20December%202019.

Wuhan in China appears to be the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and that it has a zoonotic source. China's initial clamp down on info seems to support this. It's subsequent uncharacteristic detailed and fulsome (and admittedly welcome and helpful) follow up of information was an action typical of "saving face".

There is no indication that COVID-19 originated anywhere outside China, which announced the disease in December 2019. It was found elsewhere in January 2020 in patients all proved to have had physical links to China or travellers from China...
On climate change — we're talking, we're beginning to act, but we're still not doing enough...

Sampanviking

Quote from: Nick on January 08, 2021, 01:34:45 PM
That still doesn't detract from the point of source, it just means it travelled earlier.

Read the report Nick. Its pretty clear that Wuhan was an outbreak and that the virus was not widespread in China and because of the Government Response did not become widespread in China.
The reality is, that before the Wuhan outbreak occurred, there were already up to 5 million US Citizens already infected throughout all areas of the country.

So unless the virus can also time travel..........

Nick

Quote from: Sampanviking on January 07, 2021, 04:54:03 PMIt also does not change the reality of the US CDC report about widespread infection rates in the US, long before detection of the virus in Wuhan.

That still doesn't detract from the point of source, it just means it travelled earlier.
I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Sampanviking

Quote from: Barry on January 07, 2021, 04:39:45 PM
The Chinese refused entry to the WHO investigators who were sent to China this week.
Enough said.

So why is everybody saying its just a technical issue and nothing is cancelled, just a short delay?
It is not as if WHO officers have not been in China on and off since the beginning of the Pandemic.
It also does not change the reality of the US CDC report about widespread infection rates in the US, long before detection of the virus in Wuhan.

Barry

The Chinese refused entry to the WHO investigators who were sent to China this week.
Enough said.
† The end is nigh †

Sampanviking

Nathan Rich has done some more analysis of the report and has explored it some detail - worth a watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyKp8-uPssA

HDQQ

Quote from: HDQQ on December 19, 2020, 10:28:41 AM
Knowing what we know now, surely if covid-19 had been spreading a month or two earlier than it was first identified, the huge rises in cases, hospitalisations and deaths would also have begun correspondingly earlier.

I too know of people who had covid-19 type symptoms in December 2019 and January 2020, but from what I heard, these cases didn't spread very much among contacts. A search on Google will show that there was a nasty variety of flu going round that has many similar symptoms to covid-19.

Quoting myself so I can explain a new thought that's occurred to me and probably to lots of other people:

We're hearing how the new variant of covid-19 that is spreading in London and the South East is much more infectious than previous versions, and we've heard this before with other mutations being more infectious than their predecessors.

So is it possible that a much less infectious version of covid-19 was circulating in human populations during the autumn of 2019 and what happened in Wuhan was that a much more infectious variant appeared and that's what kicked off the pandemic? If the original variant was much less infectious it could have circulated under the radar, being mistaken for flu or similar, for weeks or months. The key thing here is it would have needed to be much less infectious and possibly less deadly too to go unrecognised.
Formerly known as Hyperduck Quack Quack.
I might not be an expert but I do know enough to correct you when you're wrong!

Sampanviking

Quote from: Barry on December 19, 2020, 10:40:54 AM
Not sure it was "well established", although it seems to have already entered the country.
Not surprising since it was highly contagious yet unrecognised in China earlier in November 2019.
https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html
November 17th  is 4 weeks prior to December 13th, OK?

Well I have been following this story as best I can and can add a few more details.
First off, I now understand that despite the various organisations that are publishing the report, its origins is directly from the US CDC itself.

Regarding the Hubei case from Nov 19, this remains a possible/unconfirmed case and is not conclusively proven, with some fairly weak elements of Provenience.
Even if the Hubei case was genuine, it would remain one case.
By contrast the US report, is about finding Covid 19 antibodies. These antibodies need between 1 to 3 weeks to be produced.
Further the report is showing these antibodies in tests, very evenly distributed throughout the US is a relatively consistent level.
If you take two weeks as the median then we have a report that says that by the end of November 19, Covid 19 had already infected at least 1% of the US population in all areas of the the country.
Well, you do not get to that position overnight, so you can shove the date of initial infection back by several months to allow this level of spread and infection.
It correlates with the record which states that the US had already had a very heavy flu season throughout Autumn/Winter of 19/20.

Barry

Quote from: Sampanviking on December 12, 2020, 10:29:47 AMThis is saying that Covid 19 was already well established throughout the US before Dec 13th 2019
Not sure it was "well established", although it seems to have already entered the country.
Not surprising since it was highly contagious yet unrecognised in China earlier in November 2019.
https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html
November 17th  is 4 weeks prior to December 13th, OK?
† The end is nigh †

HDQQ

Knowing what we know now, surely if covid-19 had been spreading a month or two earlier than it was first identified, the huge rises in cases, hospitalisations and deaths would also have begun correspondingly earlier.

I too know of people who had covid-19 type symptoms in December 2019 and January 2020, but from what I heard, these cases didn't spread very much among contacts. A search on Google will show that there was a nasty variety of flu going round that has many similar symptoms to covid-19.
Formerly known as Hyperduck Quack Quack.
I might not be an expert but I do know enough to correct you when you're wrong!

papasmurf

Where I live in Cornwall, there was a lot of something about, just before Christmas 2019, a lot of the village caught it including my self and my wife, it took at least three months to recover from it.  I didn't raise any alarms with the local GP practice as only three old people carked it, which is par for the course here anyway every winter. Whether it was Covid-19 or not I have no idea.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

Sampanviking

The Oxford University Press,s "Clinical Infectious Diseases" Journal has published a research article produced by the Infectious Disease's Society of America.
Researchers tested random blood samples from 8 US states taken between Dec 13th 2019 and Jan 17th 2020, to see if any trace of Covid 19 could be found.
From 7389 samples, 104 tested positive, which is 1.4%

QuoteTo determine if SARS-CoV-2 reactive antibodies were present in sera prior to the first identified case in the U.S. on January 19, 2020, residual archived samples from 7,389 routine blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from December 13, 2019 to January 17, 2020, from donors resident in nine states (California, Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin) were tested at CDC for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

QuoteOf the 7,389 samples, 106 were reactive by pan Ig. Of these 106 specimens, 90 were available for further testing.

Link to article and full report
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

This is saying that Covid 19 was already well established throughout the US before Dec 13th 2019