Johnson's Christmas Present

[Nick]

Have you actually read the document you so confidently linked to?

Those 8 words mean in order to avoid the tariffs you have to show your goods meet the RoO.  If they don't or you cannot prove they do you have to pay the tariffs.

The food news is bilateral cumulation has been agreed so EU parts count towards the "home" origin (and vice versa). They haven't agreed diagonal cumulation. So Japanese, Turkish or Korean parts won't meet the criteria.

Ironically this may make UK industry *more* reliant on EU components.

Either way this is a bunch of extra red tape exporters now need to go through.  Some exporters will not be able to meet the RoO (or prove they do) and so will face tariffs.

Come 1st Jan, selling stuff to the EU will become a little bit harder (and in some cases impossible).

They have also agreed regularity conformity in advance so any delay will be minimal.

[BeElBeeBub]

BeelBeeBub:
Just to remind you it looks like we will still be able to fly aircraft across the EU one skies area, whatever it is called.
Our lorry drivers won't have to change drivers at the borders.
We won't need to close down our nuclear power stations, nor our reprocessing plants.
Medicines will still come in and out of the country.
The obese in Dudley will still be able to remain obese as food shortages will be non-existent.

Having failed to derail Brexit with project fear, the remainers have got to do something, so they are concentrating on some pointless minutia of the agreement to spread doom and gloom.

I remain yours, an eternal optimist.

"Planes won't be grounded, nuclear stations can run and we won't starve"

Once again, the bar for what Brexiters take as a win seems to have dropped considerably.

What happened to "prospering mightily" on no deal?

[BeElBeeBub]

It's taken from the Gov website so you're arguing with the UK government.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agreements-reached-between-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-the-european-union/summary-explainer

Have you actually read the document you so confidently linked to?

16. The Agreement establishes zero tariffs or quotas on trade between the UK and the EU, where goods meet the relevant rules of origin. 

Those 8 words mean in order to avoid the tariffs you have to show your goods meet the RoO.  If they don't or you cannot prove they do you have to pay the tariffs.

The food news is bilateral cumulation has been agreed so EU parts count towards the "home" origin (and vice versa). They haven't agreed diagonal cumulation. So Japanese, Turkish or Korean parts won't meet the criteria.

Ironically this may make UK industry *more* reliant on EU components.

Either way this is a bunch of extra red tape exporters now need to go through.  Some exporters will not be able to meet the RoO (or prove they do) and so will face tariffs.

Come 1st Jan, selling stuff to the EU will become a little bit harder (and in some cases impossible).

[BeElBeeBub]

Don't take it so hard, 38 hrs.

Going to take that as a "No I can't point to any trade deals that aren't roll overs".

[Barry]

BeelBeeBub:
Just to remind you it looks like we will still be able to fly aircraft across the EU one skies area, whatever it is called.
Our lorry drivers won't have to change drivers at the borders.
We won't need to close down our nuclear power stations, nor our reprocessing plants.
Medicines will still come in and out of the country.
The obese in Dudley will still be able to remain obese as food shortages will be non-existent.

Having failed to derail Brexit with project fear, the remainers have got to do something, so they are concentrating on some pointless minutia of the agreement to spread doom and gloom.

I remain yours, an eternal optimist.

[Nick]

As for tariffs and quotas: The United Kingdom and the European Union have agreed to unprecedented 100% tariff liberalisation

Not quite true

The tariff and quota free trade exists between members.  The UK is not moving from a regime where T&Qs are imposed to one where they aren't.

An analogy would be if Scotland were to become independent and claim it had negotiated T&Q trade with the rUK.  It wouldn't be any advance on where it was before as it already has that.

In addition the EU has numerous (at least 50) agreements with countries for zero tariffs and quotas with the exception of arms, the EBA agreements.

It's taken from the Gov website so you're arguing with the UK government.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agreements-reached-between-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-the-european-union/summary-explainer

[BeElBeeBub]

You can try and fudge it but there will be no restrictions on goods between the UK and EU. It's very easy reading

This is 100% incorrect.

There will be no tariffs and quotas, that is true.

There will be significant restrictions on goods moving between the UK and EU.

At the first level there will be increased red tape.

If you export goods you will need to prove they meet the criteria for tariff free entry.

Say you import parts from Europe, china and America, assemble them and sell them to Europe.  You will need to provide detailed records to show your product contains enough British and European parts to qualify, otherwise you pay a tariff.  So assembling lots of American parts into a product will still see you paying a tariff.

There are also multiple examples of friction like restrictions on port of entry.  certain agro products can no longer use Calais as a point of entry.

Finally some products cannot be sold in the EU anymore. A prominent one is seed potatoes.  If your business sells seed potatoes to EU customers it can no longer do so at all from Jan 1st.

[Tbird]

As for tariffs and quotas: The United Kingdom and the European Union have agreed to unprecedented 100% tariff liberalisation. This means there will be no tariffs or quotas on the movement of goods we produce between the UK and the EU. This is the first time the EU has agreed a zero tariff zero quota deal with any other trading partner.

Remorners can downplay the deal as much as they want, but people from Swiss are yelling "I want that too!"
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-brexit-envy--develops-in-some-parts-of-switzerland/46249466

[BeElBeeBub]

As for tariffs and quotas: The United Kingdom and the European Union have agreed to unprecedented 100% tariff liberalisation. This means there will be no tariffs or quotas on the movement of goods we produce between the UK and the EU. This is the first time the EU has agreed a zero tariff zero quota deal with any other trading partner.

Not quite true

The tariff and quota free trade exists between members.  The UK is not moving from a regime where T&Qs are imposed to one where they aren't.

An analogy would be if Scotland were to become independent and claim it had negotiated T&Q trade with the rUK.  It wouldn't be any advance on where it was before as it already has that.

In addition the EU has numerous (at least 50) agreements with countries for zero tariffs and quotas with the exception of arms, the EBA agreements.

[BeElBeeBub]

i agree beelbeeb , gerry the english remainer seems to be the only person i can see saying we should rush this current deal through westmisnter.

I think it should be scrutinised long and hard , which is why im not making too much comment on it  , while gerry is the one running around this forum demanding people pass comment on a document that the ink is barely dry on and have it passed in parliament

To be fair, it's not just Gerry.

The British government has given MP's & Lords since Saturday morning to read and digest over 1,200 pages of dense text and has just this afternoon published the 85page bill implementing it for MPs to digest and debate between 9am.amd 2.30pm tomorrow.

One certainty is there will be many surprises that slip through the net,, as there were with the WA.

Ideally we would have several months to debate all of this which is why the October deadline was there originally.  Nobody really wanted to rush this through at the last minute.

I suspect there will be many more surprises for the UK side than the EU side as the commission know they need to get it through 27 sets of governments and the parliament.

The UK side (I believe) have been banking on using those constitutional power to rush this through minimal scrutiny.

From Johnson's point of view the later he could schedule this the better as it gives less opportunity for scrutiny or change.

[Nick]

So the EU with the most FTA's of any country

https://fullfact.org/election-2019/ask-fullfact-trade-deals/

I think you'll find that the UK has trade deals with more countries (90) than the EU and we've only just begun 🎶.

[Nick]

Go on Nick, tell me, does the zero tariff zero quota deal cover all goods.
Whats happening with level playing field or dispute resolution or is the UK in anyway tied into EU law. You tell me as I haven't seen the detail.

As for Japan, I'd love to see how the UK deal is better than what the EU has, for two reasons.
1. The EU/Japan deal states that Japan can't sign a more favourable deal with any other country (thats a hard one to get around)
2. I've a bit of an understanding on the tariff free quotas, basically the UK is only getting a share of the EU tariff free quota if the EU doesn't first use up the quota. Unless you have more reliable info. I'd like to see how this deal is better.

Maybe you think that Japan in the future pulling production from the UK because under this deal it can just drop ship the cars from Japan as better for the UK.

The Japanese deal goes beyond the EU's in areas such as e-commerce and financial services.

As for tariffs and quotas: The United Kingdom and the European Union have agreed to unprecedented 100% tariff liberalisation. This means there will be no tariffs or quotas on the movement of goods we produce between the UK and the EU. This is the first time the EU has agreed a zero tariff zero quota deal with any other trading partner.

You can try and fudge it but there will be no restrictions on goods between the UK and EU. It's very easy reading.

[Thomas]

Many remainers (including me) did think it impossible.

It came right down to the wire though, and disruption was only avoided by the unanimous vote of the council to allow this to be provisionally applied prior to full ratification.

However it hasn't really allowed time for full scrutiny of the extremely long and complex deal by parliament who are been rushed into rubber-stamping this, so much for the sovereignty of parliament.

Let's not forget, the last time Johnson rushed through a deal and denied any scrutiny was the WA which turned out to have many clauses that the UK didn't like.

i agree beelbeeb , gerry the english remainer seems to be the only person i can see saying we should rush this current deal through westmisnter.

I think it should be scrutinised long and hard , which is why im not making too much comment on it  , while gerry is the one running around this forum demanding people pass comment on a document that the ink is barely dry on and have it passed in parliament.

[Thomas]

Which political party would take us back into the EU without another referendum? Would it be possible? So far Starmer hasn't shown any fire in his belly, but a change of leader might make it a question that needs answering. If as suggested the economy is set to pick up substantially fairly quickly once we get the vaccine out properly even the Scots might be tempted to look at their Raison D'etre again.

im not sure starmer would take the uk blatantly back into the eu , thats not how they operate toots.

They would do it by stealth , signing the uk up to treaties behind closed doors , to give the impersonation the new brexit status quo is unchanged while you suddenly find the uk is subject to the ECJ , F.O.M , C.U anmd all the other stuff.

In short it would be worse than membership , where labour have signed over control of the uk to the eu by stealth while we have no say whatsoever .

[Sheepy]

Can you indicate which trade deals we have recently signed that are *not* roll overs of deals we had via the EU?

Credit needs to be given to the civil servants negotiating these deals that they were able to roll over so many of them. I was sceptical they could manage that, although they have achieved it by copying the existing deals almost entirely.

It seems odd that a major leaver gripe was "the trade deals are for all EU members we should get bespoke UK ones" and then to celebrate signing "cut and paste" deals that are near identical.

Don't take it so hard, 38 hrs.