Johnson's Christmas Present

[DeppityDawg]

The reason planes are still going to fly, we aren't going to starve etc is precisely because we didn't have "no deal".

But consistently Leavers have been able to claim their fantastical claims if we do something stupid knowing we are unlikely to do something stupid (though I had my doubts).

So, what exactly is your problem now? The UK voted to leave the EU and the world didn't end. We went through 4 years of convoluted negotiations and the world didn't end. We've arrived at a deal and the world still hasn't ended yet?

What is your problem now? Because it seems to me that its people like you constantly inferring that everything is going to be awful and that disaster probably lies just around the corner who are making all the fantastical claims?

Don't you think its time to stop making up imaginary sausage stories and doing incessant calculations and move the feck on? Its done Beelbeeb. We lost. We've left the EU.

[Nick]

The reason planes are still going to fly, we aren't going to starve etc is precisely because we didn't have "no deal".

The reason planes will still fly has nothing to do with Brexit, they would still fly regardless.
I know this because I had this conversation with Bénédicte Duval, general manager of KLM UK.
We would simply revert to the deals that were in place prior to the European Project.

[BeElBeeBub]

What ever the numbers, we've done it in less than 12 months.

You brought up the fact we have done more deals than the EU as some sort of achievement, except we haven't and *every single one* is simply a roll over of an existing EU deal.


Without taking away from the civil servants who did this, we have spent 12months madly rushing to not even stand still.

We will start 2021 in a worse position than now.

We won't even be able to trade *within* the UK as easily as now because of the border in the Irish sea.


BTW where did you get the 90 from? I'm intrigued which source gave you that. Was it the Mail? Express maybe?  Facebook?

[BeElBeeBub]

They have also agreed regularity conformity in advance so any delay will be minimal.

only in specific sectors (happily motor cars is one).  Not all.

As another (albeit small) example. The UK exports raw sausages to the EU.  About £40m worth a year so not exactly a major industry, but some small producers of "artisan" sausages will export for the UK in EU crowd as well as to some caterers.

That trade will cease under the deal. I know the "sausage exporter" isn't a strategic industry, but it still shows that the idea this deal means there will be no trade barriers is BS.

Trading with the EU, both importing and exporting, will get harder from Jan 1st.  Some sectors and businesses will see minimal increases, some will see big ones or even outright bans. 

I'm not aware (maybe you can point one out) of *any* business trading with anyone (EU or not) that will see easier trade.


Edit:actually I just thought of one. American owned (and one time employer of David David) Tate&Lyle will be able to bring in around 250kt of cane sugar tariff free.  I believe this means they can import from S American nations that didn't benefit from the exemptions for some ex-colonial nations in the Carribbean which isn't great news for them or for UK sugar beet growers.

But T&L are probably going to make a bit more money

[Nick]

but it's not 90, where did you get that figure?
it's 65 and that's including Jersey, Gurnsey and the IoM as well as the EU)

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries#trade-agreements-from-1-january-2021

it really isn't.

maybe under trump there might have been a chance (albeit on not very good terms) but the incoming Biden administration isn't focused on a UK/US agreement.

I'm old enough to remember when a major reason to leave the EU was to avoid a trade deal with the US (which the UK was the primary driver).

Of course we could get one is we simply agree to all their demands (eg agri standards)

And let's not forget even under the TTIP terms above (which are far more favourable than any we are likely to get as the UK alone) the befit to the UK economy was in the region of £10bn or 0.05% of GDP.

Again, not 90, it's 63

The EU has 83 deals either fully ratified or provisionally applied (I haven't included agreed but not in force)

In fact I looked it up and compared.

The UK does not have a single deal that it didn't have via the EU.

You might be able to make a case for the IoM, Jersey and Gurnesy as I have no idea what happens to those EU deals as they were via the UK but if you're scraping the barrel with that you're truly desperate

What ever the numbers, we've done it in less than 12 months.

[Thomas]

the problem is that for every single warning brexiters could (and still do) simply say "it wont happen".  and of course it won't happen yet and it won't happen if you take action.

The reason planes are still going to fly, we aren't going to starve etc is precisely because we didn't have "no deal".

But consistently Leavers have been able to claim their fantastical claims if we do something stupid knowing we are unlikely to do something stupid (though I had my doubts).

I claim I could knock out Tyson Fury with one hand tied behind my back and you cannot disprove that if I never actually face him in the ring. 

"He'll make mince meat of you!" - "He'll knock your teeth out!" - "you might be permanently injured" ....all project fear.

The claim is patently absurd but I can keep claiming victory because he never turned up.

No beelbeeb. You arent listening , and as i have said to you are merely shouting past other forum members who arent listning to you in return.

An argument might have once been made over four years ago that the referdnum was just a flashpoint in the publics view at one certain point , but since then , you have been repeating the same arguments more or less over and over and have since lost subsequent elections time and again , the last being the greatest.

If i was in your situation , i would pipe down lick my wounds, and then let the next four years outside the eu and the end of the transition kick in , and if its as bad as you have predicted , and the public mood has changed , then the next GE could be your chance to drag england or the uk back in.

At the minute , you appear to be flogging a long dead horse.

[Thomas]

and if we aren't basking in "sunlit uplands", "prospering mightily"  with "the exact same befits as before" then remainers can now turn around and claim any reversal as a great defeat that brexiters said wouldn't happen.

Remainers can claim what they like beelbeeb , no one is listening. Told you that before , you lost the referendum over 4 years ago , and since then , have sounded nothing more than whinging kids and bad losers.

You made a martyr out of brexit , and instead of defeating brexiters with your arguments , you are empowering them.

I think you need to understand when to go off into the corner and lick your wounds rather than carrying on shooting blanks at targets you never hit.

[BeElBeeBub]

...but what certain remainers did was annul brexiters over exuberance regarding what brexit could achieve  , by running around forums such as this casting doubts on the continuation of humanity.

Instead of allowing brexiters to overpromise and underdeliver  , remainers with their highly hysterical fear have allowed expectations to be lowered , and now brexiters can underpromise and overdeliver.

It was a pretty stupid tactical ploy by remainers to be honest beelbeeb.

Not only have remainers come out of this with little credibility , the boy who cried wolf , but now the least little victory that brexiters achieve( johnsons last minute deal which couldnt be done) can further cement brexit in the hearts and minds of the population ensuring the uk , or england at least , doesnt re enter the eu any time soon in the future.

Project fear has by and large you must admint been , and continues to be , a largely self defeating excercise for english remainers especially.

When something clearly isnt working , ( over four year now and defeated at every single turn) i think it time to stand back and re think tactics dont you?

the problem is that for every single warning brexiters could (and still do) simply say "it wont happen".  and of course it won't happen yet and it won't happen if you take action.

The reason planes are still going to fly, we aren't going to starve etc is precisely because we didn't have "no deal".

But consistently Leavers have been able to claim their fantastical claims if we do something stupid knowing we are unlikely to do something stupid (though I had my doubts).

I claim I could knock out Tyson Fury with one hand tied behind my back and you cannot disprove that if I never actually face him in the ring. 

"He'll make mince meat of you!" - "He'll knock your teeth out!" - "you might be permanently injured" ....all project fear.

The claim is patently absurd but I can keep claiming victory because he never turned up.

[BeElBeeBub]

In case im not making myself clear beelbeeb , im picking you up over what you said regarding the bar for brexiters winning seems to have been lowered.

No sorry , you have done that , not brexiters.

Now , if the earth isnt scorched and bodies piled by the millions as project fear predicted , brexiters can now turn around and claim any small advance as a great victory that you said wouldnt happen.

As i said beely , a pretty stupid self defeating tactic that has done you no favours whatsoever.

and if we aren't basking in "sunlit uplands", "prospering mightily"  with "the exact same befits as before" then remainers can now turn around and claim any reversal as a great defeat that brexiters said wouldn't happen.

[BeElBeeBub]

Free trade deals with 90 countries plus the EU won't bring prosperity will it not?

but it's not 90, where did you get that figure?
it's 65 and that's including Jersey, Gurnsey and the IoM as well as the EU)

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries#trade-agreements-from-1-january-2021

A deal with the US is also in the offing, but you see it as negative, with absolutely no basis.

it really isn't.

maybe under trump there might have been a chance (albeit on not very good terms) but the incoming Biden administration isn't focused on a UK/US agreement.

I'm old enough to remember when a major reason to leave the EU was to avoid a trade deal with the US (which the UK was the primary driver).

Of course we could get one is we simply agree to all their demands (eg agri standards)

And let's not forget even under the TTIP terms above (which are far more favourable than any we are likely to get as the UK alone) the befit to the UK economy was in the region of £10bn or 0.05% of GDP.

There is at least 30 as we have deals with 90 countries, the EU only 60.

Again, not 90, it's 63

The EU has 83 deals either fully ratified or provisionally applied (I haven't included agreed but not in force)

In fact I looked it up and compared.

The UK does not have a single deal that it didn't have via the EU.

You might be able to make a case for the IoM, Jersey and Gurnesy as I have no idea what happens to those EU deals as they were via the UK but if you're scraping the barrel with that you're truly desperate

[Thomas]

In case im not making myself clear beelbeeb , im picking you up over what you said regarding the bar for brexiters winning seems to have been lowered.

No sorry , you have done that , not brexiters.

Now , if the earth isnt scorched and bodies piled by the millions as project fear predicted , brexiters can now turn around and claim any small advance as a great victory that you said wouldnt happen.

As i said beely , a pretty stupid self defeating tactic that has done you no favours whatsoever.

[Thomas]

"Planes won't be grounded, nuclear stations can run and we won't starve"

Once again, the bar for what Brexiters take as a win seems to have dropped considerably.

What happened to "prospering mightily" on no deal?

...but what certain remainers did was annul brexiters over exuberance regarding what brexit could achieve  , by running around forums such as this casting doubts on the continuation of humanity.

Instead of allowing brexiters to overpromise and underdeliver  , remainers with their highly hysterical fear have allowed expectations to be lowered , and now brexiters can underpromise and overdeliver.

It was a pretty stupid tactical ploy by remainers to be honest beelbeeb.

Not only have remainers come out of this with little credibility , the boy who cried wolf , but now the least little victory that brexiters achieve( johnsons last minute deal which couldnt be done) can further cement brexit in the hearts and minds of the population ensuring the uk , or england at least , doesnt re enter the eu any time soon in the future.

Project fear has by and large you must admint been , and continues to be , a largely self defeating excercise for english remainers especially.

When something clearly isnt working , ( over four year now and defeated at every single turn) i think it time to stand back and re think tactics dont you?

[Nick]

Going to take that as a "No I can't point to any trade deals that aren't roll overs".

There is at least 30 as we have deals with 90 countries, the EU only 60.

[Nick]

What happened to "prospering mightily" on no deal?

Free trade deals with 90 countries plus the EU won't bring prosperity will it not?
A deal with the US is also in the offing, but you see it as negative, with absolutely no basis.

[Sheepy]

Going to take that as a "No I can't point to any trade deals that aren't roll overs".

Or an intelligent view might be, it is time to move on.