Which Tier?

[Thomas]

Massive crises in labour run welsh nhs pre covid 19 never mind just now with covid 19.

...and beelbeeb thinks this bunch of incompetents could do a better job than johnson ?

[papasmurf]

I think I'm a prisoner in an H block imprisoned without due process.

The Ball and Chain has barred me from going outside at all.

[Thomas]

labour run welsh nhs , compared to scotland in 2018 under corbyn..

The number of non-clinical cancellations in Wales over the last two years is 75,000 – almost FIVE TIMES as many as Scotland despite a far smaller population. Per capita it's more than EIGHT TIMES worse.

Scottish Labour – assisted as always by a relentless stream of doom-and-gloom stories in the Scottish media – love to draw attention to every tiny hiccup in Scotland's public services, implying that if only we'd hand things over to them rather than the vile SNP they'd magically get better.

The evidence of Labour's competence levels in the one UK nation where it IS in control suggests that the reality isn't just the opposite of that, but the opposite on a truly gargantuan scale.

For so long as Welsh Labour exist, they'll be a constant source of embarrassment to their Scottish cousins, and to anyone gullible enough to take their claims seriously.

http://archive.is/Doybl


and beelbeeb wants this party and their current inept  leader to run the covid 19 response across the uk .

[johnofgwent]

It was announced earlier that my area will go into Tier 4 at midnight. I have just had a text telling me of the change and warning me to shield!

That was quick off the mark, let's hope that this is a sign of ongoing competency. What tier is anyone else in?

ps Gosh -followed by an email with copious detail. 

I think I'm a prisoner in an H block imprisoned without due process.

[Thomas]

Keir starmers labour party run wales...

Covid: Wales only part of UK without falling coronavirus rates

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-55214924

Wales' health minister has warned there could be further restrictions after Christmas as Covid cases continue to rise.

Vaughan Gething said Wales was the only part of the UK where figures were not falling at the end of November.

Mr Gething confirmed ministers were looking at whether further measures would be needed.

At a press conference he said choices made by the public would determine how many die from the virus.

It comes as officials in Swansea Bay warned case levels could soon reach "catastrophic levels" unless people follow social distancing rules.

Meanwhile the Welsh Conservatives called for "detailed plans" for how the Welsh Government would deal with the rising cases.

Plaid Cymru's Adam Price said the Welsh Government was struggling to communicate to the public.

[Thomas]

Are you seriously arguing that Boris Johnson has the best combination of personality traits and skills to have managed this pandemic

No cause boris johnson isnt in control of scotland response to covid 19. Nicola sturgeon is , and im hearing the same whinge from labour types about her as you are doing to johnson.

Im making no comment about johnson , im saying we kow you dont like him ( brexit) but who in yor opinion would do better.?

From the Tories, I think previous administrations like the May and Cameron ones would have been more effective. Far from perfect but probably better.

dodge. Im talking about current politicians , not people from the past.

Labour, it think KS would have been better

Finally we get some sort of a grudging answer.

Keir starmer would have been better?

Lets judge his track record so far.  The man who ran the tactics of the labour party in the last GE and his strategy caused them to lose many of their red wall seats and take them to the worst defeat in modern history?

That inept politician?

The man who has just fallen into he tory trap over the brexit deal?

That inept politician?

The man  who threw his former boss to the dogs to appease the media?

That inept politician?

I dont agree.

Sturgeon for the SNP seems to have handled things reasonably within the constraints she is working under.

Not according to keir starmer and many in labour.

As I said hindsight is 20:20

A load of waffle. Essentially  , you say do the same with a few tinkers and try to do it better.

There is a reason why starmer is called captain hindsight which you in this thread epitomise.

Its easy to carp after the event , rather than taking the decision in the eye of the storm.

I notice you make no mention of labour run wales? According to john of gwent , a welshman  , wales is the worst of the home nations under a labour administration?

Why hasnt captain hindsight and his branch managers got wales in tip top covid 19 condition compared to the rest of the world?

[BeElBeeBub]

So i ask again , instead of offering never ending soundbites of criticism of the tories ( or snp)governments , who in your opinion of the current uk parties and leaders would have handled this virus more effectively ?

Over to you.

Are you seriously arguing that Boris Johnson has the best combination of personality traits and skills to have managed this pandemic

From the Tories, I think previous administrations like the May and Cameron ones would have been more effective. Far from perfect but probably better.

Labour, it think KS would have been better although Corbyn would not have been any better than Johnson.

Sturgeon for the SNP seems to have handled things reasonably within the constraints she is working under.

From History, Margret Thatcher, for all her faults, was a decisive leader unafraid to make unpopular choices. As a scientist she was probably more capable of listening and understand experts in. If she was capable of putting aside some of her ideological views she would probably have made a better fist of things.

Going back further Churchill did seem to have the right qualities for the time of national emergency. He was not only a good communicator but had a famously fearsome eye for detail and for calculating risks.

Secondly , what are you suggesting then?

Thats since march earlier this year , the whole of these islands should have been under house arrest till soemone somewhere hopefully produced a vaccine?

Is this what you are saying.?

Over to you , i await your answer.

Nope, that is another example.of a straw man.

First the recommendations of operation Cygnus should have been acted on and our PPE/Vent situation checked and brought up to par. This should have been massively accelerated in December when the first reports came in.

The 1st LD should have been sooner and we should have been better prepared. Events like Cheltenham shouldnt have happened.

The 1st LD should have been held a bit longer and then restrictions reduced in a slow stepwise fashion, eg allow outside mixing, wait 2-3 weeks assess impact then make next move (continue, hold, reverse). The reductions steps should have been communicated clearly with time frames and criteria some all knew what we are aiming for.

Masks should have been mandated as soon as the evidence came in they probably did more good than harm and a crash program to develop, test and deploy a public appropriate mask (ideally reusable) rather than (still) relying on homemade ones pushed forward
.
As soon as it started looking like a vaccine was possible the emphasis should have been ok holding the restrictions at whatever level they were until we could deploy enough vaccine.

We should have "canceled" Christmas as soon as it was obvious that the above would happen before.  Not only out of solidarity with the other religions who had to cancel their various celebrations but also because it would encourage spread. Instead the idea of summer celebration should have been proposed where a long BH weekend would be added for all sections to hold delayed celebrations in the summer when safe.

As I said hindsight is 20:20 and not every one of those options were clear at the beginning (we didn't knoew if there would have been a vaccine).  Hut the government have consistently departed from scientific advice and erred in the side of optimism rather than caution.

[Barry]

The figures show that restrictions work.

What doesn't work is half measures restrict our lives and only slow not reverse the increase.

Tiers 1 & 2 were obviously not enough against the original variant. Tier 3 was barely enough.  The new variant is more infectious meaning that T3 is no longer sufficient and T4 is needed (and probably not enough).

The figures from through November lockdown and only started to rise with the arrival of the new variant.

The figures imply that the old variant is in decline under the T3
, which means that, absent the arrival of the new variant, they would have worked.

Just bad luck the new variant turned up (or maybe good luck it turned up at end rather than the beginning - half full vs half empty).

This is one of the reasons you want to try and keep the numbers down whilst developing a vaccine.  The more people who get it the more chances for a mutation to a nastier strain.

Wow, so many assumptions, half truths and blind faith in the official line, I'm not sure where to start.
The "new variant" was first seen in September. The evidence that it is more contagious is where?
Kent went from Tier 1 to lockdown in November to Tier 4 after that lockdown. Please explain how the lockdown in November helped, because the spread was not stopped.
Don't say people did not comply without good evidence, because everywhere I went, they did.

The WHO have been saying long enough that lockdowns are not a preferred method, also, they are now saying, we have to live with the virus and it will become a background virus like the other 3 coronaviruses that have infected mankind.

[Thomas]

except where they have stopped it

Your point earlier was  government restrictons can eliminate the virus , and i was simply pointing out no government in the world has eliminated the virus .( or more properly its threat)

Restrictions can eliminate the virus and have been shown to repeatedly.

They can slow if not stop the spread , agreed , but they can't eliminate it , hence my point governments and politicians arent gods beeleeb. They are men such as you or i , and your constant criticism is in my opinion unjust and in most cases unwarrented political point scoring.

[Thomas]

T4 equivalent restrictions for all UK were recommended before Xmas. That we aren't there yet shows how behind the curve the government are

nope you originally said that we should be in a higher level , and i simply pointed out we are all in the highest levels..

.  We are all heading to t4 and maybe even 5. Delaying it just makes things worse.

so as ever you disingenuously dodge the point .

[BeElBeeBub]

Quote (selected)

And the current patchwork of tiers is a mistake.  We are all heading to t4 and maybe even 5. Delaying it just makes things worse.

Delaying what? Scotland is in the highest level , and so is england  , or the majority of it , so what are you on about now?

T4 equivalent restrictions for all UK were recommended before Xmas. That we aren't there yet shows how behind the curve the government are

There is no pii testing until the last minute and inching your way up.

If infections are rising too fast you act. You can always loosen up later.  Fast up slow down.  The government does it slow up and fast down.

Governments can't stop viruses beelbeeb. I know you think politicians are god , but really , mother nature can't be stopped.

One way or the other , the virus will spread as people like devi sridhar has said repeatedly all year. It can't be stopped.

except where they have stopped it

And now we have a vaccine the requirement to restrict the spread whilst we vaccinate is even more acute.

[Thomas]

How on earth is "implementing a system you were warned was problematic and then hastily reversing it when the forecast problems arrive" equivalent to "Tories acted quickly and effectively"?

So i ask again , instead of offering never ending soundbites of criticism of the tories ( or snp)governments , who in your opinion of the current uk parties and leaders would have handled this virus more effectively ?

Over to you.

Secondly , what are you suggesting then?

Thats since march earlier this year , the whole of these islands should have been under house arrest till soemone somewhere hopefully produced a vaccine?

Is this what you are saying.?

Over to you , i await your answer.

[Thomas]

Restrictions can eliminate the virus and have been shown to repeatedly.

For the government, the purpose of lockdown seemed to be simply that: lock the country down and hope the problem would go away. But lockdown itself doesn't fundamentally change the virus or its trajectory. It just buys us time.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control

Forgive me if i disagree with you. The world has been in a virtual state of never ending lockdowns since the start of the year , and the virus hasnt gone away. As many scientists like the above quote from Devi Sridhar have said all year long , the virus isnt a storm you can wait out. Locking down and hoping the virus goes away or will be "eliminated" isnt correct.

Of course it can always come back, either because it was spreading undetected in a "reservoir" community or it's imported again and if that happens restrictions can stop the outbreak and end the transmission chain.

is this some sort of trwisted doublespeak?

You have literally just contradicted your ealier sentence and agreed with me.

So if it comes back as you say , then you are locked once more into the cycle of never ending lockdowns , and then open up , and then lock down , as has been happening. Thus the virus hasnt went away as i said.

One way or the  other no matter hoew many lockdoans you have  the virus will keep coming back till it has infected every single human being on the planet. So what are you talking about?

The evidence for suicide increases isn't there yet and won't be for a while

sure but the point im making is that the collateral damage of these restricitons arent even being discusssed , such is the hysteria and hype of the virus itself.

As has been said time and again , we could well find the cure has been worse than the cause at the end of it all.

[Thomas]

I agree.

you would.

( tory bad!)

[papasmurf]

It's November 10th 1918, let's not go charging over the top right now The evidence for suicide increases isn't there yet and won't be for a while (a problem in itself).

There is a lag of around three years for some idea of suicides, and even then Coroners remain reluctant to come to a suicide verdict.