Which Tier?

[BeElBeeBub]

Quote (selected)
I think it's a good thing they moved, in all honesty T1 & T2 were a mistake.

Right  , so the tories acted quickly and effectively and done good is what you are saying? Glad we cleared that up.

How on earth is "implementing a system you were warned was problematic and then hastily reversing it when the forecast problems arrive" equivalent to "Tories acted quickly and effectively"?

[BeElBeeBub]

Work in what way?

The restrictions as barry alludes to , have absolutely no effect on the virus in terms of eliminating it.

Restrictions can eliminate the virus and have been shown to repeatedly.

Of course it can always come back, either because it was spreading undetected in a "reservoir" community or it's imported again and if that happens restrictions can stop the outbreak and end the transmission chain.

Until a vaccine is developed there will be the continuing need for restrictions at various levels. At the lowest level these restrictions would just be continued monitoring and vigilance in the population (eg not simply writing off a cough as "allergies" and going to work).  But when an outbreak is identified strong measures to end the transmission chain before it gets too big are needed. See Auckland locking down when a family case was identified.

The restrictions simply suppress the virus and stop it spreading for however long the restricitons are in place. As soon as you lift the restrictions as professor devi sridhar says , its like taking a lid off a box of frogs and the frogs jumping out all over the place as we have seen time and again all year.

On this we agree. You can't just open up "back to normal". The virus is just as transmissible as before (even more so now) and will.just spread again.

If there was no prospect of a vaccine - if all the candidates so far had failed - then the case for working out how to restart our economy would be very strong. Clearly we cannot go on like this forever

But the vaccine route seems to be extremely viable. 5 so far and more in line.

It's November 10th 1918, let's not go charging over the top right now

Saying restrictions "work" is extremely ambiguous indeed. Further , it takes no account of any other health issues that resticrions bring , so you might find you wont die of  a virus , but die of something restriction related like suicide or mental health issues.

I was just reading this morning how suicide over 2020 is apparently among one of the worst years on record.

While the hysterical focus is all on a virus with less than a 1% mortality rate , and a virus thats that deadly a third of those who have it dont know they haveit or dont show amy symptoms , it will of cours be interesting to see the collateral damage your restrictions bring to the popualtion once the coals are raked over.

The evidence for suicide increases isn't there yet and won't be for a while (a problem in itself). All the figures so far are for deaths that occured *before* the pandemic. What figures we do have show no statistically significant increases for the 1st part of the year (these figures are for a subset of regions and situations  so are incomplete)

Whilst suicide land mental health problems) is terrible stain on our society, it doesn't follow that the restrictions must create more.

That they do create problems (and this applies to other health care issues like screening and so on) is because of poor organisation and support.

Somebody committing suicide because their business has gone under due to the restrictions is not the direct fault if the restrictions. It's the fault of not putting in place the support for people impacted by the restrictions.

The restrictions have never been on healthcare. The negative impacts of healthcare provision have been the result of the NHS being overstretched and having to cancel routine ops, screening etc. That would have been worse without restrictions. The whole point of restrictions was to lessen the load on the NHS to allow it to continue it's ordinary functions.

restrictions dont "reverse" any increase. They "stop" any further increase , and those who have contracted the virus dont find that it "drains" out of them in some reversal.

of course restrictions don't cure people.

"reverse" in this context means "reverse the growth in the rate of new infections" eg move the number of new infections a day from 750 to 100 to 10.

You're not a stupid person so don't straw man.

[papasmurf]

This government has persistently shown it isn't equipped to handle this. They are prone to gambling on the optimistic outcome occuring rather than erring on the side of caution and they keep losing the bet. They seem to have been engaged on epic corruption in procurement and have constantly bungled the messaging and lost public trust with high profile breaches.

I agree.

[Thomas]

Always bringing things down to point scoring aren't you.

Thats what every post of yours is...nothing more than one big long winded point scoring excercise against democracy.

If you are such an expert on covid 19 and dealing with it , get off the forum and offer your services.

...but you wont , as its easier to carp tory bad from your armchair.

I think it's a good thing they moved, in all honesty T1 & T2 were a mistake.

Right  , so the tories acted quickly and effectively and done good is what you are saying? Glad we cleared that up.

And the current patchwork of tiers is a mistake.  We are all heading to t4 and maybe even 5. Delaying it just makes things worse.

Delaying what? Scotland is in the highest level , and so is england  , or the majority of it , so what are you on about now?

Governments can't stop viruses beelbeeb. I know you think politicians are god , but really , mother nature can't be stopped.

One way or the other , the virus will spread as people like devi sridhar has said repeatedly all year. It can't be stopped.

This government has persistently shown it isn't equipped to handle this.

every government in the western world is facing the exact same criticism from hysterics like you. The scottish english german french etc etc , even the most powerfull nation in the world...america.

While politicians , health services , ordianry people etc etc are working flat out to deal with this , we have folk like you standing moaning and constantly criticising and trying to push the knife into peoples backs to politically point score.

Who would do better than sturgeon and johnson in england and scotland? Muppets like sit on the fence starmer and the inept ricky leopard?

Like the labour party , you are nothing more than all critique and no solution.

Which is why you  and your ilk are regulalrly whipped at election time on many differing subjects.

[BeElBeeBub]

Is that a good or a bad thing beelbeeb?

Its difficult to tell from the tone of your posts at times.I suppose it depends on the discussion and if you can wring a point scoring excercise against the tories out of it.

I thought you covid hysterics wanted the world locked down for our own good? None of us are capable of course of thinking for ourselves and need governments taking away our freedoms and locking us down for our own benefit.

So im assuming locking your sister down into a higher level is a good thing and the tories are working fast and effective?

Always bringing things down to point scoring aren't you.

I think it's a good thing they moved, in all honesty T1 & T2 were a mistake.

The whole "5days of Christmas" thing was a debacle.

And the current patchwork of tiers is a mistake.  We are all heading to t4 and maybe even 5. Delaying it just makes things worse.

This government has persistently shown it isn't equipped to handle this. They are prone to gambling on the optimistic outcome occuring rather than erring on the side of caution and they keep losing the bet. They seem to have been engaged on epic corruption in procurement and have constantly bungled the messaging and lost public trust with high profile breaches.

[Thomas]

The figures show that restrictions work.

Work in what way?

The restrictions as barry alludes to , have absolutely no effect on the virus in terms of eliminating it.

The restrictions simply suppress the virus and stop it spreading for however long the restricitons are in place. As soon as you lift the restrictions as professor devi sridhar says , its like taking a lid off a box of frogs and the frogs jumping out all over the place as we have seen time and again all year.

Saying restrictions "work" is extremely ambiguous indeed. Further , it takes no account of any other health issues that resticrions bring , so you might find you wont die of  a virus , but die of something restriction related like suicide or mental health issues.

I was just reading this morning how suicide over 2020 is apparently among one of the worst years on record.

While the hysterical focus is all on a virus with less than a 1% mortality rate , and a virus thats that deadly a third of those who have it dont know they haveit or dont show amy symptoms , it will of cours be interesting to see the collateral damage your restrictions bring to the popualtion once the coals are raked over.

What doesn't work is half measures restrict our lives and only slow not reverse the increase.

restrictions dont "reverse" any increase. They "stop" any further increase , and those who have contracted the virus dont find that it "drains" out of them in some reversal.

[BeElBeeBub]

It makes no difference what Tier you are in, the virus carries on regardless. As evidenced by the figures

The figures show that restrictions work.

What doesn't work is half measures restrict our lives and only slow not reverse the increase.

Tiers 1 & 2 were obviously not enough against the original variant. Tier 3 was barely enough.  The new variant is more infectious meaning that T3 is no longer sufficient and T4 is needed (and probably not enough).

The figures from through November lockdown and only started to rise with the arrival of the new variant.

The figures imply that the old variant is in decline under the T3
, which means that, absent the arrival of the new variant, they would have worked.

Just bad luck the new variant turned up (or maybe good luck it turned up at end rather than the beginning - half full vs half empty).

This is one of the reasons you want to try and keep the numbers down whilst developing a vaccine.  The more people who get it the more chances for a mutation to a nastier strain.

[Thomas]

My sister (IoW) is now T4 having been in T1 11 days ago.

Is that a good or a bad thing beelbeeb?

Its difficult to tell from the tone of your posts at times.I suppose it depends on the discussion and if you can wring a point scoring excercise against the tories out of it.

I thought you covid hysterics wanted the world locked down for our own good? None of us are capable of course of thinking for ourselves and need governments taking away our freedoms and locking us down for our own benefit.

So im assuming locking your sister down into a higher level is a good thing and the tories are working fast and effective?

[BeElBeeBub]

It was announced earlier that my area will go into Tier 4 at midnight. I have just had a text telling me of the change and warning me to shield!

That was quick off the mark, let's hope that this is a sign of ongoing competency. What tier is anyone else in?

ps Gosh -followed by an email with copious detail. 

we can hope but I'm not holding my breath.

My sister (IoW) is now T4 having been in T1 11 days ago.

[BeElBeeBub]

HAPPY NEW TIER!

<Sorry>

[Barry]

Barry you cheer me up no end! 

Yes, sorry, but you know I'm right.

[T00ts]

In Kent been in Tier 4 since the November lockdown, so really it has never ended.
It makes no difference what Tier you are in, the virus carries on regardless. As evidenced by the figures.

Barry you cheer me up no end! 

[Barry]

In Kent been in Tier 4 since the November lockdown, so really it has never ended.
It makes no difference what Tier you are in, the virus carries on regardless. As evidenced by the figures.

[Nick]

It was announced earlier that my area will go into Tier 4 at midnight. I have just had a text telling me of the change and warning me to shield!

That was quick off the mark, let's hope that this is a sign of ongoing competency. What tier is anyone else in?

ps Gosh -followed by an email with copious detail. 

Just gone from 2 to 3, at least I can go out to a restaurant.....Oh no, i can't, Ive got the lurgy

EDIT

It apparently means take out only, double oh no!

[T00ts]

It was announced earlier that my area will go into Tier 4 at midnight. I have just had a text telling me of the change and warning me to shield!

That was quick off the mark, let's hope that this is a sign of ongoing competency. What tier is anyone else in?

ps Gosh -followed by an email with copious detail.