Meanwhile in the Middle East - Iran

[Sheepy]

If you have a solution to guarantee future peace in the ME Sheepy let's hear it. I do not see Iran giving in to sanctions but I do see them reacting by enriching Uranium and, with a degree of religious fervour, not being afraid of being a disruptive influence in the region by capturing the occasional ship and firing missiles into neighbouring states. The deal on restricting the Uranium enrichment was with the USA, China, Russia, France, Germany and the UK. It was working until Trump unilaterally broke it. Iran is not a small country with a population of 85M or so, and like in most places, a large percentage want a quiet and peaceful life. A war with Iran would be a lot tougher than it was with Iraq; and that didn't go too well for anyone.

Exactly who mentioned war with Iran? You did, as for regime change being the answer to everything, I wouldn't bet on it, it hasn't worked out so well elsewhere, or the last time it was done in Iran. About the best that can be hoped for is some kind of compromise. Even Trumpy realised an all-out attack on Iran would be no less a declaration of WW3 than an attack on Israel.

[grumzed]

If you have a solution to guarantee future peace in the ME Sheepy let's hear it. I do not see Iran giving in to sanctions but I do see them reacting by enriching Uranium and, with a degree of religious fervour, not being afraid of being a disruptive influence in the region by capturing the occasional ship and firing missiles into neighbouring states. The deal on restricting the Uranium enrichment was with the USA, China, Russia, France, Germany and the UK. It was working until Trump unilaterally broke it. Iran is not a small country with a population of 85M or so, and like in most places, a large percentage want a quiet and peaceful life. A war with Iran would be a lot tougher than it was with Iraq; and that didn't go too well for anyone.

[Barry]

Well, that is all good then Admiral, there isn't a problem in the Middle East between different religious sects, the Russians and Chinese are not involved, just leave it all to the Americans they will sort it out,

Trump was doing OK in that area, but that will all be cancelled by grandpa earpiece

with Israel acting as attack dog, because nobody will attack Israel because it would be WW3.

I've seen the preview.

Although of course one could say that very attitude has already led to half the ME in ruins.

Don't mention North Africa, especially Benghazi.

[Sheepy]

Well, that is all good then Admiral, there isn't a problem in the Middle East between different religious sects, the Russians and Chinese are not involved, just leave it all to the Americans they will sort it out, with Israel acting as attack dog, because nobody will attack Israel because it would be WW3. Although of course one could say that very attitude has already led to half the ME in ruins.

[grumzed]

I never said it was easy! Not everyone in Iran is an Islamic terrorist. Many Iranians moved abroad during their revolution and I happen to know two of them and their families who live in the UK. They are very decent folk who do not approve at all of the Iranian government, driven, as it is, largely by religous fanatics. They, in turn, still have many relatives in Iran and, of course, they do not all approve of the regime as it is. I don't think threats work too well with the religious fanatics - it is not as though they are going to take a pragmatic view. The Iranians also have a decent education system and are technologically capable. The lunatic fringe (the revolutionary guard) is the problem and the governing hierarchy that chooses not to control it.

Israel is the waiting attack dog whilst the Western world negotiates. That is not a bad strategy and buys time. Whether it sufficient to allow political and/or religious reform in Iran remains to be seen.

[Barry]

Grumzed, Iran see the USA as the great Satan and Israel as the little Satan and they want the "Zionist Entity" wiped from the face of the earth.
That's not too easy to deal with.

[grumzed]

I think Biden will remove the sanctions on Iran to the pre-Trump position. Whether this will be enough for Iran remains to be seen and they may well still continue some Uranium enrichment to weapon grade underground somewhere. Iran is definitely more dangerous to the stability in the ME than before Trump as they do not see the West as an honest negotiator (maybe they never did). If they ever got close to making viable nuclear weapons I think Israel would stop it with significant force and the world would have to manage the repercussions.

[Streetwalker]

The   apparent international no comment  last week to Irans Uranium build up maybe was seen as a green light  for more piracy on the high seas (on which they have form )

Countries like Iran need to be kept to the heel on a tight leash though direct involvement in the area has proved to be a disaster for all . 

[papasmurf]

Iran have hijacked a South Korean ship to try to pressure them to unlock their money $7 billion in Korean accounts.
Locked by sanctions.
I wonder if Trump will have a last fling, like a cruise missile at Natanz. Or perhaps not, because he's had a good record for keeping the peace.

Links are somewhat sparse:-

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/iranian-state-media-says-revolutionary-guards-seized-vessel-in-gulf-654219

[Barry]

Iran have hijacked a South Korean ship to try to pressure them to unlock their money $7 billion in Korean accounts.
Locked by sanctions.
I wonder if Trump will have a last fling, like a cruise missile at Natanz. Or perhaps not, because he's had a good record for keeping the peace.