Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two

[papasmurf]

But is it accurate ? I'm sure you are aware of past failings in that area....

Without anyone knowing how many illegal immigrants are getting into the country, obviously no.

[Scott777]

Im at the point of where i am past caring now , and we all just have to ride this shit out.

If you say anything , you are accussed of being a conspiracy freak , callous and uncaring by the village mob mentality who are beyond any rational thought and reasoned discussion.

I know the feeling.  Just asking for evidence that there is currently an epidemic of a deadly disease in the UK - that's makes me crazy, according to the resident smurf.  Maybe there is, maybe there isn't, but I want the evidence.  My worry is that you think we can ride it out.  There's a reason why it's called the new normal, and it's not good.

[johnofgwent]

That data is published on a regular basis:-

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#:~:text=Over%20the%20last%20year%2C%20677%2C000,a%20slight%20increase%20in%20immigration.

In the year ending December 2019, long-term international migration continued to add to the UK population. An estimated 270,000 more people moved to the UK with an intention to stay for 12 months or more than left the UK (net migration). Over the year, 677,000 people moved to the UK (immigration) and 407,000 people left the UK (emigration).

Long-term net migration, immigration and emigration have remained broadly stable since the end of 2016. However, there are different patterns for EU and non-EU migration – both overall and by main reason for migration.

But is it accurate ? I'm sure you are aware of past failings in that area....

[papasmurf]

2) we have quite a few immigrants, and quite a few emigrants, each year. Or we did. Interesting to see if / how that chang s, if we bother measuring.

That data is published on a regular basis:-

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#:~:text=Over%20the%20last%20year%2C%20677%2C000,a%20slight%20increase%20in%20immigration.

In the year ending December 2019, long-term international migration continued to add to the UK population. An estimated 270,000 more people moved to the UK with an intention to stay for 12 months or more than left the UK (net migration). Over the year, 677,000 people moved to the UK (immigration) and 407,000 people left the UK (emigration).

Long-term net migration, immigration and emigration have remained broadly stable since the end of 2016. However, there are different patterns for EU and non-EU migration – both overall and by main reason for migration.

[johnofgwent]

My position is coronavirus as we all know is a real thing , and aye there is a pandemic now.

Coronavirus has been around for decades , since the sixties i think , and this is a particularly virulent strain of it.

However i think all perspective has been lost for various reasons , governments failing to deal with it , mass hysteria due to media coverage especially among the elderly , and of course everyyear we have mini pandemics like flu and norovirus etc , and the nhs has been on the point of collapse during winter practically all my life.

My local area has a popualtion of around 21 000 , and according to statistics there has been 9 deaths last year linked to covid 19........thats people who have died with it not of it. 0.1%.

I suppose im just shocked scott in how easily cowed society is , and how willing people are to give up their hard won freedoms. im shocked at how people i have known well for years are behaving.

On top of that , its the massive inconsistency of what we are seeing on a daily basis.

Im at the point of where i am past caring now , and we all just have to ride this shit out.

If you say anything , you are accussed of being a conspiracy freak , callous and uncaring by the village mob mentality who are beyond any rational thought and reasoned discussion.

I think the biggest problems are


1) we do not have exactly the same number of babies born every year


2) we have quite a few immigrants, and quite a few emigrants, each year. Or we did. Interesting to see if / how that chang s, if we bother measuring.


3) As a result of 1 and 2 the number available to be scythed varies a bit, and critically once scythed they are unavailable to be scythed next year.


4) The deaths per so many head of population show some variation in past years but we've had flesh eating bugs, novovirus, and various virulencies of bog standard flu adding to the mix.


I don't envy the people making up sorry assembling these figures but the deeper I go into apologies for the fact different countries do it differently and the myriad notes and caveats the more my PROFESSIONAL sense of utter scepticism, honed in the 70s to detect BS in research papers seeking funding, kicks in.


Scepticism is the starting point and default position of the true scientist.

[Thomas]

Do I deduce you are also sceptical of the official narrative?  What's your general position?  Is there a pandemic now?  Was it so deadly as we are told?  I stopped watching TV years ago, and watch the occasional bit on Youtube - it's a horrifying pile of junk.   

My position is coronavirus as we all know is a real thing , and aye there is a pandemic now.

Coronavirus has been around for decades , since the sixties i think , and this is a particularly virulent strain of it.

However i think all perspective has been lost for various reasons , governments failing to deal with it , mass hysteria due to media coverage especially among the elderly , and of course everyyear we have mini pandemics like flu and norovirus etc , and the nhs has been on the point of collapse during winter practically all my life.

My local area has a popualtion of around 21 000 , and according to statistics there has been 9 deaths last year linked to covid 19........thats people who have died with it not of it. 0.1%.

I suppose im just shocked scott in how easily cowed society is , and how willing people are to give up their hard won freedoms. im shocked at how people i have known well for years are behaving.

On top of that , its the massive inconsistency of what we are seeing on a daily basis.

Im at the point of where i am past caring now , and we all just have to ride this shit out.

If you say anything , you are accussed of being a conspiracy freak , callous and uncaring by the village mob mentality who are beyond any rational thought and reasoned discussion.

[Scott777]

Just wondering scott do you know why the last five years have been singled out to provide an average with which to base these comparisons to? Why not the last twenty , or fifty , or 100?

Is this a bit like the climate debate , pick a few years which show the earth  warming , and use them as an average with which to compare to  , and at the same time ignore the other 10 billion years that dont fit the narrative?

changing the subject for a minute , regarding the non stop covid propaganda being pumped into our living rooms on a day to day basis , no one in my house except my wife normally watches tv , or more properly , normal tv (bbc  , stv channels 4 and 5 , sky etc) and over the last month or so , even she has given up on it .

We all feel much better for it , and suprisingly upbeat , while many of the old folk (neighbours etc) who sit glued to the bbc are ready to slit their wrists in fear , as they have been consistenly glum and anxious throughout all these covid waves.

I heard on the local facebook community page that they were trying to revive the weekly clapping for the nhs or some such guff. You should have seen the abuse the person who suggested it got.

Goodwill seems to have evaporated entirely , and patience rapidly running out.

Do I deduce you are also sceptical of the official narrative?  What's your general position?  Is there a pandemic now?  Was it so deadly as we are told?  I stopped watching TV years ago, and watch the occasional bit on Youtube - it's a horrifying pile of junk.   

[Thomas]

Let's add some perspective.

Here is total UK deaths per year per 1000.  2019 is missing (can't find it).  I added 2020 at the end.

The first thing I notice is that 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 are ALL roughly equal to 2020.  Secondly, there has been a steady incline since 2011 and if someone can find 2019, it might show that 2020 was only a bit higher than expected.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281478/death-rate-united-kingdom-uk/

Just wondering scott do you know why the last five years have been singled out to provide an average with which to base these comparisons to? Why not the last twenty , or fifty , or 100?

Is this a bit like the climate debate , pick a few years which show the earth  warming , and use them as an average with which to compare to  , and at the same time ignore the other 10 billion years that dont fit the narrative?

changing the subject for a minute , regarding the non stop covid propaganda being pumped into our living rooms on a day to day basis , no one in my house except my wife normally watches tv , or more properly , normal tv (bbc  , stv channels 4 and 5 , sky etc) and over the last month or so , even she has given up on it .

We all feel much better for it , and suprisingly upbeat , while many of the old folk (neighbours etc) who sit glued to the bbc are ready to slit their wrists in fear , as they have been consistenly glum and anxious throughout all these covid waves.

I heard on the local facebook community page that they were trying to revive the weekly clapping for the nhs or some such guff. You should have seen the abuse the person who suggested it got.

Goodwill seems to have evaporated entirely , and patience rapidly running out.

[johnofgwent]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2019to2020provisionaland2018to2019final#excess-winter-mortality-by-cause-of-death


Have a bit more


The ONS defines excess winter deaths

[Scott777]

Let's add some perspective.

Here is total UK deaths per year per 1000.  2019 is missing (can't find it).  I added 2020 at the end.

The first thing I notice is that 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 are ALL roughly equal to 2020.  Secondly, there has been a steady incline since 2011 and if someone can find 2019, it might show that 2020 was only a bit higher than expected.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281478/death-rate-united-kingdom-uk/

[patman post]

They've done a mean job of manipulating statistics.
What is an "Excess death"?
If you look at the graph it was similar in 2007-2008 and worse than this year every year before that. All for the sake of a headline!

That seems a jaundiced view. The report extrapolates (not manipulates) comparatives from the given figures as illustrations of quantity.
Nowhere does it mention an excess death — it compares numbers of deaths , ie, more than expected number of deaths with expected number of deaths in specific periods.

It's clear to me to seem significant enough to point out that the figures show there were close to 697,000 deaths in the UK in 2020 — which was nearly 85,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.

People are having fun disputing the cause(s), but the figures are there...

[johnofgwent]

What is an "Excess death"?

I have, FINALLY tracked that one down. Buried in a WHO site (that admits different countries count things different ways and thus comparing different countries reports is problematic, it states excess deaths is a measure of the degree to which a number of deaths reported over a period varies statistically significantly from the reported deaths in the same location over a number of past years.


Their statement is accompanied by a graph showing their calculated excess deaths over the summer of 2019 in various EU countries. There is a clear spike,but as we approach autumn / winter the line vanishes in the noise EU wide.


I DID know the maths behinds this. Bajpai, Calus and Fairley "Mathematics for Scientists And Engineers" Vol I & 2 published circa 1977 (my edition anyway) talk of a chi squared test.


We used in in zoology to determine if a particular specimen creature belonged to one subgenus or another based on measurements of the specimen versus measurements and calculation of standard deviations thereof for a population of each subgenus.


The above allowed me to declare a such and such percentage the individual was from subgenus a, and such and such percentage chance if being b. The two percentages rarely added up ton100, usually 120-130. That's maths for you.

[Scott777]

Explain all you like, those who just want to play and troll will continue to deny the fact that the past year has seen a huge jump in the death rate over what would be expected in a "normal" year.

Personally, I'm wondering if Brexit rather than Covid could be the cause...

If it's true, personally, I'm wondering if it's suicide, cancer and malpractice in care homes rather than Covid or Brexit to be the cause.

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/apr/deaths-people-cancer-could-rise-least-20

"Coronavirus could cause 35,000 extra UK cancer deaths", experts warn.  (Please note the BBC would blame Covid, but it's obviously restrictions, not Covid, unless Covid literally causes cancer).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784

[papasmurf]

Personally, I'm wondering if Brexit rather than Covid could be the cause...

I am no doubt Brexit will cause some deaths, but it could take a few years before that can be quantified.

[papasmurf]

What is an "Excess death"?

Explanation:-

https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2020/july/what-are-excess-deaths