Voter turn out to upset things?

Started by BeElBeeBub, December 05, 2019, 06:31:42 PM

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Churchill

#7
December 06, 2019, 09:05:39 AM
What lies have we been told?
<r><COLOR color=\"#4000FF\">>After years of waiting at long last on our way out of the EU <E>]</e></COLOR></r>

papasmurf

#6
December 06, 2019, 08:51:02 AM
Quote from: Churchill post_id=8473 time=1575622087 user_id=69
That has always been the case this GE is different IMO a lot of very angry people out there that feel shunned ignored after the referendum result, coupled with local and national issues that have been put on hold for 3 years as the farce in the Commons carried on.


A significant number of people are angry because of the lies they were told before the referendum, (and are still being told.)

How that will make them vote is frankly anyone's guess.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

Churchill

#5
December 06, 2019, 08:48:07 AM
That has always been the case this GE is different IMO a lot of very angry people out there that feel shunned ignored after the referendum result, coupled with local and national issues that have been put on hold for 3 years as the farce in the Commons carried on.
<r><COLOR color=\"#4000FF\">>After years of waiting at long last on our way out of the EU <E>]</e></COLOR></r>

papasmurf

#4
December 06, 2019, 08:20:32 AM
Quote from: Churchill post_id=8469 time=1575618896 user_id=69
I think there will be a low turn out, I suspect many voters are fed up with our poloticians lost trust in them


I think turnout is going to vary wildly from constituency to constituency, with factors other than Brexit being the reason.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

Churchill

#3
December 06, 2019, 07:54:56 AM
I think there will be a low turn out, I suspect many voters are fed up with our poloticians lost trust in them
<r><COLOR color=\"#4000FF\">>After years of waiting at long last on our way out of the EU <E>]</e></COLOR></r>

papasmurf

#2
December 05, 2019, 07:25:38 PM
I suspect tactical voting will upset things.
Nemini parco qui vivit in orbe

BeElBeeBub

#1
December 05, 2019, 06:31:42 PM
It looks like the conservatives are heading for a win.



I saw this survey resukt the other day



ComRes 25-26 Nov



"Absolutely certain to vote"



18-24: 60% (+11)

25-34: 61% (+8)

35-44: 62% (-)

45-54: 62% (-6)

55-64: 79% (+7)

65+: 78% (-1)



I believe the differences are wrt 2017.



This shows a big uplift amongst the younger voters and a more mixed picture amongst the older ones.



As the older ones are more likely to vote BXP/CON and the younger ones LAB/LD etc modelling a result using 2017 (and historic) turnout weighting might overestimate the BXP/CON vote and underestimate the LAB/LD vote.



Given the polling is still showing a ~10pt CON lead it's still probable the CONs will win an outright majority, but the likelihood of a hung Parliament is rising
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