Americas back

[patman post]

China and Russia — and Russia's allies bordering Afghanistan — probably have their enough of their own problems with Islamic inspired insurgencies to be too gleeful about current developments in the region, or to embark too quickly on further major escapades without carefully thinking them through.

But with its military and paramilitary personnel at around 3,000,000, its advanced weaponry placing it almost on a par with the US, and a 1.5 billion population to draw on, China could takeover Taiwan tomorrow without even threatening to use nuclear weapons. A question would then be, would the US again resort to (or threaten) their use, and gain the reputation of being the first and only nation to do so? 

Further questions might be which countries (besides Japan, which has already indicated its intention) would ally with the US and come to Taiwan's aid and/or, would the Taiwanese think that life as part of the PRC, as it has now developed, might not be that bad, and accept annexation rather than fight.   

China has carried out provocative military actions below the level of armed conflict (and cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns) around Taiwan for years. Will it carry these on hoping Taiwan will give in — or will there be an intended Hong Kong style settlement (for what that was worth) — or will China invade...?

[Sampanviking]

Probably over Taiwan.
The Chinese now expect that Biden will not act.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/17/china-holds-live-fire-exercises-near-taiwan-response-provocations
Taiwan will soon be taken by China, any time they like. If the West try to get involved it could start WW3.

Right location but wrong protagonist
China does not need to attack Taiwan unless is does or China believes that it is about, to to declare Independence, something it would not dare to do unless it had US support and massive US Military back up already in place.
China does not need to do anything otherwise, because the balance of power between it and the US and its regional allies, is shifting daily and rapidly in favour of the Chinese.
By contrast, it is the US that has a rapidly shrinking window of opportunity to act, before military defeat at the hands of the PLA, is all but assured.
Further, the Afghan Debacle has much unsettled the Taiwanese pro Independence DPP which means that a more integrationist KMT Government is more likely next election.

China has time on its side and the US has not, against the threat from an adversary that it regards as Existential.

[Barry]

I wouldn't hold your breath the Americans are bound to have another Psychotic episode before long.

Probably over Taiwan.
The Chinese now expect that Biden will not act.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/17/china-holds-live-fire-exercises-near-taiwan-response-provocations
Taiwan will soon be taken by China, any time they like. If the West try to get involved it could start WW3.

[Sheepy]

So said Biden and he's right they're back home with their tails between their legs.

Beijing must be laughing their heads off though I would imagine they're nervous In Taiwan,Japan and a few others in that area.

I ain't really bothered who is or isn't regarded as friends or any past misdemeanours of the west who are now in retreat this may not end well for us IMO.

I wouldn't hold your breath the Americans are bound to have another Psychotic episode before long.

[cromwell]

So said Biden and he's right they're back home with their tails between their legs.

Beijing must be laughing their heads off though I would imagine they're nervous In Taiwan,Japan and a few others in that area.

I ain't really bothered who is or isn't regarded as friends or any past misdemeanours of the west who are now in retreat this may not end well for us IMO.