The Prediction Thread

[johnofgwent]

In the end it's irrelevant what I think because as far as I can tell, all of the major political parties now have a policy that they would not rejoin the EU if elected.

as I pointed out, every Welsh labour MP swore blind in their 2017 manifestos they would ensure the will of the people was respected, and once back in Westminster, conspired with the speaker to do everything except that

I don't understand how you expect me to believe the lying shitbags won't pull the same stunt again.

[patman post]

Boris is an ex PM, a back-bencher with no ministerial responsibility. He does have at least one wife and two or more children to keep happy. So what business is it of ours if he is having a holiday after earning 350,000 smackeroonies for speaking at the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers conference in Colorado?

Indeed, what business is it of anyone if Boris does appear to be forgetting that he is still an MP with a constituency full of his constituents in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and that Parliament is still sitting.

No doubt the constituency was looked after, and constituents' concerns were addressed in the same way the constituents of other PMs have been:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37691279

But he overlooked his commitment, to constituents over Heathrow expansion, that he would lie down "in front of those bulldozers and stop the construction of that third runway", when he blew more than £20,000 of taxpayers'cash on a visit to Kabul conveniently timed to miss the commons vote on it.

Johnson, aptly named in a couple of ways...

[Barry]

Boris is an ex PM, a back-bencher with no ministerial responsibility. He does have at least one wife and two or more children to keep happy. So what business is it of ours if he is having a holiday after earning 350,000 smackeroonies for speaking at the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers conference in Colorado?

[Borchester]

However for those who want to bring back Boris Johnson or even think it's remotely acceptable to do so can I ask this?  Do you think it is even remotely appropriate that he was on holiday in Barbados when he is an MP at a time of national crisis and at a time when major votes were taking place in the House of Commons?  CAn you please help me to understand why this is ok why he was on holiday at this time?

I share your concerns about Barbadians. Simple folk, half savage, half child. I know because I lived with one for a bit.

But I believe Barbados is now linked to the UK by the electric telephone, so even if the Russians invade and get stuck in a traffic jam on the M25, Boris will hear about it sooner or later.

[Javert]

Javert is still a believer in the fallacy that there is a majority to remain. After five elections showing the UK electorate want to leave, you might think he'd learn the truth. I expect the next election will be yet another post Brexit opportunity to kick the remainers in the teeth.

In the end it's irrelevant what I think because as far as I can tell, all of the major political parties now have a policy that they would not rejoin the EU if elected.  Also - rejoining the EU would be a very long process as the UK would have to start from the beginning like any other country.  Therefore it's kind of irrelevant now and I think this is one big part of why the Tories popularity has suddenly slumped - a big majority in the country has now released that being in or not in the EU is not a live issue as such (although the additional damage done from not being in the EU is clear).

No doubt the Tories will still go into the next election claiming that any other vote than a vote for them is a vote for people who secretly want to reverse Brexit, and of course it's clear that this worked in the last few elections.  However I don't think it will work next time.  We will see.

However for those who want to bring back Boris Johnson or even think it's remotely acceptable to do so can I ask this?  Do you think it is even remotely appropriate that he was on holiday in Barbados when he is an MP at a time of national crisis and at a time when major votes were taking place in the House of Commons?  CAn you please help me to understand why this is ok why he was on holiday at this time?

(reminder - the commons mainly operates with recesses based largely around school holidays, with even more recently because of the death of the Queen - he could have gone on holiday during recesses).

[Barry]

the figures I see from a Google search today say 52% (that'll be 1040 out of 2000 questioned) think it was wrong to leave. A figure suspiciously like the one Bollox to Brexit and David lammy said should be ignored so I'll return the favour and do just that.

Javert is still a believer in the fallacy that there is a majority to remain. After five elections showing the UK electorate want to leave, you might think he'd learn the truth. I expect the next election will be yet another post Brexit opportunity to kick the remainers in the teeth.

[johnofgwent]

Last time I checked, a good majority wants to rejoin the EU.  Not that they would allow that to happen anyway.  I predict we will be back in the customs union within the next 4 years, and in the single market within 10.  EU membership in 20.

Regarding all the MPs who are trying to bring back Johnson, I see 3 possibilities
- They have completely taken leave of any senses that they ever had.
- They have not taken a look at the evolution of Boris Johnson's popularity with the electorate and his polling numbers since 2019, nor taken into account that in 2019 he had Brexit and Corbyn on his side.  It's not at all evident that Boris Johnson is an election winner in a normal election fight - in spite of the determination of all news media to find vox pops to the contrary in the last days. 
- They have realised that they will definitely lose the next election, and they think that having Johnson as leader will be more likely to keep their individual seat for Con.

Also, Johnson was one of the ones who recommended appointing Truss.

And this doesn't take into account the fact that he is currently under investigation and might need to be suspended if found guilty.

the figures I see from a Google search today say 52% (that'll be 1040 out of 2000 questioned) think it was wrong to leave. A figure suspiciously like the one Bollox to Brexit and David lammy said should be ignored so I'll return the favour and do just that.

[Sampanviking]

I think the point was well made by Raab this morning.
How can Boris effectively govern at a time of crisis, when he is being investigated by the Parliamentary watchdog and could face suspension from the house.

It is just more instability on previous chaos.

[T00ts]

It is a shambles no-one denies that - but the point is that at this moment the Conservatives are still in Government and addressing the problem in the only sensible way they can. 

[cromwell]

Which is what I said!!

You also said this

not bad housekeeping like Labour always achieve.

Which is altering facts and an poor attempt to disguise this utter shambles

[Javert]

That's fairly patronising. Are you a swing voter suddenly? You are just peeved because there are some of us who expect to respect the Ref result and you are miffed that the best chance for years that you have had of putting Labour in the better seats is about to leave you behind yet again. Let me repeat. I don't like Boris for all sorts of reasons but I hate nasty back biting even more. He deserved better and if he can return and get some pay back then why not?
I really don't want Sunak to benefit from his appalling behaviour and his lack of loyalty. If the Conservative failings make you think that somehow remain will put us back in the debacle that is the EU then I very much hope that you are sadly disappointed. If remain had won then you would expect nothing less. So why should I?

Based on the current polling, if Boris is made PM again, he will spend the next 3 months managing an inquirty into himself - no doubt you will be in favour of the entire standards committee being abolished (or even better only non Tories subject to its enquiries).

According to the polling, at the next election, even if the Tories win (which they would have to pull back an enormous amount), he himself would lose his seat, so he would also somehow have to pass legislation to allow non MPs to be PM.

[Javert]

I don't think being suspended bothers him

I wish I could laugh but I think it's a lot worse than that - if Boris gets back into power, the only next possible moves for the Conservatives are to abolish the standards and priviledge committee or effectively neutralise it, thereby making him invulnerable.  He will then spend most of his time trying to find a way to delay  or cancel the next general election - in my view if he is voted back into power, that means that the Tories are plotting to abolish democracy in order to stay in power. 

It's obvious he woul have to do this because if he's found guilty by that committee, it will set off a chain of events that might lead to him facing a by election in his own constituency, which on current polling he would comfortably lose.

Make no mistake - the Conservatives believe that anyone who is not a Tory voter is not a real human - all the talk on the news this morning is of "Conservative members want Boris back so we are bringing him back" - there is no dicussion about what's best for the country or people who are not part of the Conservative party.

[srb7677]

That's fairly patronising. Are you a swing voter suddenly? You are just peeved because there are some of us who expect to respect the Ref result and you are miffed that the best chance for years that you have had of putting Labour in the better seats is about to leave you behind yet again. Let me repeat. I don't like Boris for all sorts of reasons but I hate nasty back biting even more. He deserved better and if he can return and get some pay back then why not?
I really don't want Sunak to benefit from his appalling behaviour and his lack of loyalty. If the Conservative failings make you think that somehow remain will put us back in the debacle that is the EU then I very much hope that you are sadly disappointed. If remain had won then you would expect nothing less. So why should I?

So petty revenge and personality rubbish is more important than the country? You truly have lost the plot. And any sense of perspective. If they put Johnson back in it will be farcical.

And insofar as your hate fest on Sunak goes. Sunak combines far more honesty, competence and integrity than Boris with far more economic nous than Truss. But all that matters to you is petty revenge because Sunak recognised what most of his colleagues did by then, That Johnson was unfit for office. And you want him back for such petty and mean-spirited of reasons as simple revenge? Johnson got what he so manifestly deserved.

[Nick]

They've contributed but to think the effect of Truss hasn't excacerbated it here massively is delusional.

Which is what I said!!

[cromwell]

You don't think Covid and Putin have wrecked the economies of the world then?

They've contributed but to think the effect of Truss hasn't excacerbated it here massively is delusional.