US abandons Taiwan?

[johnofgwent]

Well, Maggie allowed the Argentinians to believe the same, and then sent her cannon fodder in to kick their arse and deliver her what was it 15 years in power.


I wonder ....

[Sampanviking]

There have been growing signs all year that the US is no longer prepared to militarily fight to defend Taiwan, in the event of China reunifying the Island by military means.

The first was the "leaking" of wargames results which showed that the USN, USAF and USMC would be able to prevail in a conflict for the Island in an Air Sea war with the PLA. In addition they showed that even where the US was able to occupy the Island and prevent a PLA landing, the cost of doing so and enduring an endless conflict across the straits, would be far more than they were prepared to accept.

Secondly, we saw the US withdraw completely from its disastrous Central Asian front amid signs that the US wants to concentrate only of the Asia sorry indoPacific but to do so at a safe distance from PLA firepower.

Thirdly we have seen US diplomacy rebuffed soundly in the region by all other main nations, all of whom have made it clear that they want no part of an Anti China Adventure that could lead to a shooting war. Even India showed at the much hyped "Quad virtual summit" no apatite to get involved in the interdiction of Chinese Shipping in the Indian Ocean, understanding that given its land border with China it faced not only an Air Sea war in the Indian Ocean but a Land Air war on its northern frontiers, which effectively meant a war being fought on Indian Territory.
The only thing to come out of this diplomacy was the AUKUS between the US, UK and Australia, which currently is no more than a Nuclear Sub deal with delivery dates in 25 years time. As others have noted, this is a very pink alliance in a part of the world that is uniformly yellow, but from which yellow is noticeably absent.

Finally we have the words of US Defence Secretary Jake Sullivan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58837432

Key quotes

"We are going to stand up and speak out, both privately and publicly when we see the kinds of activities that are fundamentally destabilising," 

Asked whether the US was prepared to take military action to defend Taiwan, Mr Sullivan said: "Let me just say this, we are going to take action now to try to prevent that day from ever coming to pass."

"Trying to say that coming out of Afghanistan somehow tells any country anything about the depth and level of commitment the US has elsewhere is a grave mistake."

"It's incumbent upon us as the United States, working with allies and partners to make clear where we stand, to stand up for our friends, to stand up for our interests... And that's what we intend to do."

All of which is waffle and bombast and contains no commitment whatsoever.
Nothing like "We will not hesitate in using all necessary means Military and otherwise to defend Taiwan"
No commitment to defend and no promotion of Taiwan aspirations of State hood.
The pro independence camp on the Island will be feeling very exposed this morning.

Do not forget also, that the biggest Ideological divide on the Taiwan Issue is not between the US and PRC or between the ROC (Taiwan) and PRC but between the pro ROC KMT party on Taiwan and the DPP currently in government. Given that the KMT dominate the Islands military and that very senior retired officers have called for reunification and even a Coup if necessary to prevent moves towards independance.

In total, it appears that the US has realised that its position; both militarily and politically is untenable, and is starting its strategic withdrawal to the Second Island Chain.

Indeed there are curious parallels with the enhanced levels of PLA activity around Taiwan and the increase of Taliban activity in Afghanistan just as the US started its pull out from there.