Mobilise,all leave cancelled.

[Sampanviking]

The Russians seem to have what they wanted.

The US/NATO will not intervene militarily if conflict breaks out in the Ukraine. Given that Russia has stated it would only start conflict if its red lines were crossed, with the key red line being Ukraine membership of NATO and NATO putting military infrastructure into Ukraine, it means that Ukrainian membership of NATO is never going to happen.

[Sampanviking]

Any links to these treaties? Cause I think they're just urban myth.

Looks like your right in that. There were certainly undertakings made; mainly to Gorbachev about NATO "not advancing one inch further into former Soviet Territory" when the deal to allow the Unification of Germany was being struck, but nothing actually made it into a international Treaty. It would explain why this time, Russia is demanding such a treaty be put in place.

[Nick]

None of this would have happened if the West had honoured the commitments and treatise that it made with Gorbachev and Yeltsin about not expanding NATO eastward and which we promptly ignored and broke in spades.

Any links to these treaties? Cause I think they're just urban myth. 

[Sheepy]

After the event is starts to look more and more like overblown rhetoric to make the failing Biden presidency look tough.
It appears that there are no Russian troops massed on the borders (unlike in April when they definitely were) but simply in bases between 100 and 200 miles away, there to deal with an emergency if one arose.

Furthermore it transpires that the US is looking to sell about $1 Billion worth of light arms and manpads originally earmarked for the Afghan army and now seeking a new purchaser and that the Ukraine looks a useful candidate......

Vlads sense of humour was as naughty as ever, very business-like apparently. 

[Sampanviking]

After the event is starts to look more and more like overblown rhetoric to make the failing Biden presidency look tough.
It appears that there are no Russian troops massed on the borders (unlike in April when they definitely were) but simply in bases between 100 and 200 miles away, there to deal with an emergency if one arose.

Furthermore it transpires that the US is looking to sell about $1 Billion worth of light arms and manpads originally earmarked for the Afghan army and now seeking a new purchaser and that the Ukraine looks a useful candidate......

[Sheepy]

if possible slowly picking off bits of disputed territory, all the time looking to shake western moral and belief in its political systems.

That made me smile good old, I don't think the Russians or the Chinese need to worry much about that, when politicians have managed it all by themselves. Different things make me smile, like the sudden resurrection of Victoria Nuland the Russians and Chinese without doubt will know exactly where she is coming from.

[Good old]

Who is to say that Vlad isn't playing a clever game anyway he has the EU under the cosh every winter and maybe his inseparable allies the Chinese fancy bogging down the US in Eastern Europe? it would draw them away from the South China sea and even if it doesn't, they have said they are ready for conflict with the US, stretch your enemies on many fronts would be a good thing for them, so what do you armchair generals have to say about that? 

What Putin, or the Chinese, want long term is still conjecture. But if it revolves around the world being run with the methods they employ in domestic politics,  and in Putins case , often carried out beyond his back yard ,then if we are going to criticise our democracy ,to the point of considering it worth supporting surely it has to be a case of careful what you wish for from a democratic point of view. Neither offers an executive that once in situ can easily be  opposed let alone removed.
The situation we find our selves in has been long in the making, it could be thought clever, by them, but surely , the fact that the Chinese, have created an economy that has had most of the western world licking there rear end to the point of needing to lick harder and faster, whilst they arm themselves to the teeth, was always there for us to question. The same could be said of Putin, in particular on the issue of gas supplies. They have made themselves  capable of disrupting the economies of much of the western world, they have proved they can disrupt the IT systems we rely on.
Major military conflict now is going to be Armageddon ,they know this,  so smaller localised conflict will be the order of the day, if at all. Both will test us out from time to time,  if possible slowly picking off bits of disputed territory, all the time looking to shake western moral and belief in its political systems.

[Sheepy]

Who is to say that Vlad isn't playing a clever game anyway he has the EU under the cosh every winter and maybe his inseparable allies the Chinese fancy bogging down the US in Eastern Europe? it would draw them away from the South China sea and even if it doesn't, they have said they are ready for conflict with the US, stretch your enemies on many fronts would be a good thing for them, so what do you armchair generals have to say about that?  

[Sheepy]

negotiate and settlement with Putin than to ignore and insult him

I very much doubt that by the way, as that is what they do, until they come unstuck. On another note, they have all but laid waste to the Middle East and another war in Europe might well have them dribbling so I wouldn't be counting my chickens that the US wouldn't see opportunity in Eastern Europe with its cohorts. 

[Sampanviking]

Not exactly,I speculated that that he could have ....but his years at the Lubyanka and the dross leading the west put him off that option.

When push comes to shove the west can produce the quality of leadership required.

More than that Cromwell, his strong overtures to the West in the early days of his Presidency were roundly rebuffed. He wanted to integrate into Europe. The West (US) did not want to know.
Otherwise I agree with your first sentence but have very serious doubts about the second.

[T00ts]

Congratulations John, you perfectly articulate the sort of arrogant, blustering, exceptionalist idiocy that has led us to this point in the first place.

While we have been wasting out time and energy trying to turn the world in a knee taking, trans gender bending, guilt ridden, blame assigning cancel making mess in our own image. Russia has been rebuilding itself from the basket case that was left in the wreckage of the Soviet Union and is now once again a major world power, built on Energy, its Military and its Nuclear Arsenal.

None of this would have happened if the West had honoured the commitments and treatise that it made with Gorbachev and Yeltsin about not expanding NATO eastward and which we promptly ignored and broke in spades.
Cromwell asked why Vlad did not seek to join with the West? Well the Russians did in the early days of the 21st C and it was the West that made it clear that it was not interested. This is down to nothing more than the Yanks not wanting another major power in the camp and only wants to lord it over its suzerain vassals and lesser sycophants.

The habit the west has adopted to talking to major peer competitor powers as if they were small banana republics, unworthy of consideration, courtesy or respect.

To answer your question John as to why? The answer is that it is a hell of a lot better to negotiate and settlement with Putin than to ignore and insult him and then watch him simply take it and otherwise enforce his own preferred solution on the situation and there being nothing we can do about it.
All the more so as the structure of the now existing Sino-Russian alliance means that conflict would not be restricted to Eastern Europe.

The supposition being that Russia and their ilk will play fair in return. Cloud cuckoo land.

[cromwell]

Cromwell asked why Vlad did not seek to join with the West? 

Not exactly,I speculated that that he could have ....but his years at the Lubyanka and the dross leading the west put him off that option.

When push comes to shove the west can produce the quality of leadership required.

[Sampanviking]

Why should we give a damn thing to a thug who sends his lackeys to wreak havoc with chemical / biological / nuclear agents in London and the Home Counties.

Congratulations John, you perfectly articulate the sort of arrogant, blustering, exceptionalist idiocy that has led us to this point in the first place.

While we have been wasting out time and energy trying to turn the world in a knee taking, trans gender bending, guilt ridden, blame assigning cancel making mess in our own image. Russia has been rebuilding itself from the basket case that was left in the wreckage of the Soviet Union and is now once again a major world power, built on Energy, its Military and its Nuclear Arsenal.

None of this would have happened if the West had honoured the commitments and treatise that it made with Gorbachev and Yeltsin about not expanding NATO eastward and which we promptly ignored and broke in spades.
Cromwell asked why Vlad did not seek to join with the West? Well the Russians did in the early days of the 21st C and it was the West that made it clear that it was not interested. This is down to nothing more than the Yanks not wanting another major power in the camp and only wants to lord it over its suzerain vassals and lesser sycophants.

The habit the west has adopted to talking to major peer competitor powers as if they were small banana republics, unworthy of consideration, courtesy or respect.

To answer your question John as to why? The answer is that it is a hell of a lot better to negotiate and settlement with Putin than to ignore and insult him and then watch him simply take it and otherwise enforce his own preferred solution on the situation and there being nothing we can do about it.
All the more so as the structure of the now existing Sino-Russian alliance means that conflict would not be restricted to Eastern Europe.

[johnofgwent]

Why not just give Russia what they are asking for, which are essentially security guarantees, enforceable under International Law.
Its not as if there are any territorial demands being made.

The Russians have made clear that there are two things that will trigger a conflict in Ukraine:
a) An attack by Ukrainian forces against Russian or Donbass forces
b) The Deployment of NATO combat brigades into the Ukraine.

If we in the West are acting in good faith, its not really a lot to ask is it?

Why should we give a damn thing to a thug who sends his lackeys to wreak havoc with chemical / biological / nuclear agents in London and the Home Counties.

[Sheepy]

These forces are still in base and over 100 miles away from the International border,

Well, how easy is that sorted out, with satellite imagery, saves us watching the Ukrainians in their WW1 trenches.